SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XI

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL CHANGES GOVERNMENTS AND STRATEGIES TOWARDS PEACE

Israel’s 32nd government was sworn in this evening, Tuesday, March 31, 2009. A priority in the agenda of new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be the complex issues associated with arms smuggling from Sudan and other rogue states into Gaza. This non-stop smuggling has helped to re-build the weapons arsenal of Hamas since the Gaza War ended in January 2009.

Israel’s continued crackdown on arms smugglers will be only one of the issues that Netanyahu will be confronted with in his new job. He will also have to deal with a shaky unofficial temporary cease-fire with Hamas, along with the continued pressure on Israel’s government to release terrorists with blood on their hands in a prisoner swap that could bring home Israel’s P.O.W. Corporal Gilad Shalit.

After recent negotiations for Shalit’s release failed, under the direction of the Olmert government, Israel decided to limit the benefits that Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails will receive in the future. Israeli analysts predict that if this plan goes into effect it will backfire on Israel because international human rights advocates can be expected to blame Israel for inhumane treatment of prisoners. This is predicted to occur despite the fact that Hamas is not adhering to international human rights laws regarding Shalit, who is being held in a secret hideaway in Gaza, not able to connect with his parents or the Red Cross.

Speaking at a recent briefing for diplomats and journalists at the Jerusalem Center For Public Affairs (JCPA), Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yair Naveh, former Commander of the IDF Central Command and Gaza Division, talked about the goals of Fatah and Hamas, including Iran’s influence on these groups and others in the Middle East region. One of Naveh’s main jobs in the IDF has been to expertly identify terrorist activities within the Jewish State and stop terrorism on the home front.

What the Palestinians and the Global Community expect from Israel

In 2000, Naveh met privately with Brigadier General Saib Ajez of the Palestinian armed forces. He learned that the Palestinians do not see their home as Gaza, but instead want to occupy towns and cities in Israel, such as Yavne, Ashkelon, Hadera, and Tel Aviv. Their long range perspective is much deeper than the kind of peace process Netanyahu is expected to try and navigate with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Naveh believes that Israelis are accustomed to a Western worldview where life is highly valued, but the Palestinians are concerned with obtaining land. “For the Palestinians... land is associated with respect, dignity and honor,” he said.

It is a known fact within the international community that Hamas does not want to recognize Israel, stop violence against civilians, and adhere to previously signed agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA). But, few international leaders are willing to accept what Fatah officials within the government of Abbas actually claim. Earlier this month, in reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah, Muhammad Dahlan, former PA Security Commander, said Hamas did not need to recognize Israel’s right to exist because Fatah has never done that.

Fatah wants a democratic state of Palestine instead of recognizing the Jewish state of Israel. The Palestinian group had hoped years ago that the Arab populations both in Gaza and in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would double, and that, demographically, Israel would cease to have a Jewish majority within its borders. Then, Israel built the infamous security fence which created a separation between the Palestinians and the Israelis. This allowed Israel time to expand Jewish communities on Israel’s side of the fence.

This was a major factor that caused Abbas to push for a two-state solution several years ago. This two-state concept was first mentioned in the global arena during a speech by former U.S. President George W. Bush before the U.N. General Assembly on November 10, 2001. He said, “We are working toward the day when two states – Israel and Palestine – live peacefully together within secure and recognized borders as called for by the Security Council resolutions. We will do all in our power to bring both parties back into negotiations. But, peace will only come when all have sworn off forever incitement, violence, and terror.”

Despite the Road Map, which called for incitement, violence, and terror to stop, the Palestinians continued their war against Israel. Bush, however, continued to push for a two-state solution throughout the rest of his presidency, and today, it has become the slogan for the global community when trying to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Dan Dyker, a Senior Foreign Policy Analyst at the JCPA, told this writer that current U.S. President Barack Obama is clearly advancing a two-state solution. “That has become the brand in the United States. And, Israel has bought into that brand.” But, Dyker claims that Netanyahu will take a different approach with the Palestinians, and will promote the concept of an “economic peace” during future peace negotiations.

The Power of Hamas

Meanwhile, General Naveh told journalists and diplomats at the JCPA briefing that Hamas is a religious and political organization that Israel helped to establish over 20 years ago when the Jewish state wanted to create an alternative to Fatah. Now, Israeli leaders are beginning to understand that whether they are dealing with Fatah or Hamas, the goals are much more similar than they originally thought.

According to Naveh, a main goal of Hamas is that “there will be no sovereign political reality in the Middle East except the Palestinians and Hamas.” Hamas has copied the successes of Hezbollah in Lebanon by providing help to poor Gazans through social welfare programs including hot meals in schools; improved education; summer camps for children; transportation; and housing (especially after Israel’s Defense Forces demolish the houses of terrorists). As a result, Hamas has greatly increased its popularity among the Palestinians.

The political view that Hamas leaders carry is that once they turn Gaza into a Hamas state they will be able to expand their power into the West Bank. They believe they will accomplish this politically and militarily. “This is the biggest vision of Hamas,” states Naveh. He says that Iran has become a key player in helping Hamas. There has been a more radical religious system implemented in Gaza, and more women are wearing the veil as extremism and fanaticism take hold within the population. In this way, Iran has extended its influence among the Palestinians, along with training, funding, and arms supply to terrorists helping to develop the military capabilities of Hamas.

Iran’s Nuclear Threat – a different point of view

Israeli leaders have expressed various viewpoints on whether they believe that Iran would use a nuclear weapon against Israel in the future if the Islamic Republic is able to acquire one. Naveh’s opinion is that Iran would not use the weapon against Israel, but instead, would threaten the Jewish State. Naveh believes that Iran’s goal is a Palestinian Middle East that embraces the ideology of Iran. Therefore, he sees Iran developing a strategy of “forward divisions”: Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border; Hamas on Israel’s southern border with control of Israel’s heartland (the West Bank – Judea and Samaria); Syria on Israel’s northern and eastern border. Naveh claims that Iran would like to see a situation of civil uprising and terrorism in Israel that would weaken the Jewish State.

Naveh warns that an Iranian nuclear umbrella would allow Hezbollah and Hamas to beleaguer Israel, and once the Jewish State was bogged down, this would help Iran in its goal of achieving greater dominance in the region. This threatens Israel and moderate Arab states, which is one reason these states have considered taking a pro-active approach in deterring Iran from its nuclear ambitions. Naveh’s assessment is not to focus so much on Iran pushing the nuclear button in the future, but rather the possibility of regional deterioration into full blown terrorism because of Iran’s ability to threaten states in the Middle East if Iran acquires a nuclear arsenal.

The Philadelphi Corridor

The Philadelphi Corridor, the porous border between Egypt and Gaza, was named in secret Israeli military encoded maps. The term was then used in military jargon, and has now been associated with hundreds of tunnels that go deep underground. From Rafah into Gaza, Bedouins and Palestinians smuggled cows, drugs, and missiles, with each tunnel costing about $20,000 per month to run. Originally, Rafah residents did the smuggling as a family business. But, when Hamas took over Gaza, the weapons smuggling increased.

According to Naveh, as soon as Hamas controlled Gaza, Israeli military forces worked at separating Gaza from the West Bank. This proved to be a successful plan when Israel fought Hamas during the recent Gaza War. At that time, there was quiet and a semblance of order in the West Bank. Meanwhile, Naveh claims that terrorism can only be deterred “night to night, house to house”, not by air strikes. Only this way can you fight terrorism, he explains. You cannot win without securing the area. This is a veiled implication that Israel did not have complete victory in its recent war against Hamas.

Some Israeli politicians and military officials believe that Netanyahu will have to order the IDF to re-take the Philadelphi Corridor in order to stop arms smuggling; and, go back into Gaza to root out Hamas in order to stop rocket attacks on Israeli southern border towns. Naveh believes that the military achievements during the Gaza War were good, but those achievements are slowly eroding. Furthermore, he is concerned that behind Hamas are even greater forces that Israel will have to contend with. Islamic Jihad may increase its military power, followed by Al Qaeda. Finally, the greatest existential threat to Israel is Iran.

While the international community debates the Iran nuclear issue, Israel’s new government will already be focused on neutralizing the forces that Iran uses as proxies against Israel...Hamas, Hezbollah and other militant groups. Israeli leaders will work, strategically, to wipe out terrorist threats on their northern and southern borders while preparing for a more serious confrontation with Iran.

“And, you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.” Matthew 24:6.

Prayer Points:

1. Pray for the new Netanyahu coalition government, especially concerning new foreign policy initiaves. Declare that Netanyahu will cling to the Lord’s statutes throughout his tenure as Prime Minister, according to Psalm 119:33.

2. Declare Psalm 25:22, that God will redeem Israelis out of all their troubles.

3. Pray for the King’s favor of protection for the Jewish people, according to Esther 8:11.

4. Proclaim Psalm 35:1 for Israel in the face of enemy opposition. Pray that God will deliver Israel from her enemies, and that the angel of the Lord will encamp around those in Israel who fear Him (Psalm 34:7).

5. Agree in prayer that the Lord will bring to light the intentions and plans of men that are against His chosen people, according to Psalm 37.

6. Pray that Israel’s borders will be shielded by the Lord’s invisible army. (Joshua 1:4; Joshua 1:7-9). Declare that the Israeli people will be obedient to God so they can receive their land inheritance.

7. Intercede that all Israel will pay attention to the Lord’s commandments, especially during this Passover season, remembering His promises to Moses; meditating on the Lord’s word day and night. (Exodus 12:1-28).

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- X

Jerusalem, Israel

THE FORMATION OF ISRAEL’S NEXT GOVERNMENT

Recent reports indicate that the Labor Party, under the chairmanship of Ehud Barak, will be joining the next government of Israel. Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu has been given the responsbility to put together a government, which most likely, will include Labor, Israel Beitenu, and Shas. Negotiations continue with smaller right-wing parties. Netanyahu has until April 5 to form a government after being given a 2 week extension by Israel's President, Shimon Peres. But, Netanyahu is expected to finish negotiations before that time.


The official Israeli election results from the Central Elections Committee were published in the public records February 18, 2009. Israeli President Shimon Peres then began consulting with Knesset factions with the goal of determining which Knesset member should try and form the next government coalition.

His invitation came on the heels of political maneuvering by both Israeli Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party and Netanyahu.

Livni won the February 10, 2009 general election by a narrow lead, but she was not considered able to put together a successful coalition. The left-wing parties she had a natural alliance with lost votes due to an Israeli population swing towards the “right”.

Netanyahu enjoys strong support among a majority of Israel’s new incoming Knesset members, especially those who align themselves with the right-wing bloc.

DIVISIONS ON MAJOR ISSUES

Divisions remain among Israelis on core issues that involve future political, diplomatic, and military decisions. There’s a weakness in Israeli foreign policy strategies set by leaders because of these divisions. The election results indicate the continued polarization between Jew and Arab; left-wing and right-wing; secular and religious.

ELECTORAL REFORM

Israel is about to swear in its 32nd government in 60 years of statehood. Since 1988, no Knesset has served out its full term. There’s always been a coalition crisis that instigates early elections.

As Israel’s political parties bicker over who will be in Netanyahu's government, one thing is certain... Electoral reform will be on the agenda of the 18th Knesset. This may be Israel’s most fractured government to-date. The electoral system needs the reforms to create political stability. There are too many factions pursuing single-interest issues. There is not enough cohesiveness between major political blocs. There is little unity among Israeli leaders except around one core issue – Iran.

Currently, a political party trying to get into the Knesset needs to garner 2% of the votes in the general election. Those members of the Knesset who want electoral reform will try to raise that threshold to, perhaps, 5%. In the U.S. there are two major parties elected to Congress – Democrats and Republicans. In Israel’s recent election, 12 parties made it past the electoral threshold, and all will be represented in the 18th Knesset.

LOSSES AND GAINS

While it is expected that the Kadima Party, headed by Livni, will remain in the opposition, the Labor Party, headed by Barak, now has a chance to improve its status as a strong partner within the new coalition government.

The Labor Party lost a substantial amount of votes in the February 2009 general election. Citizens remember the indecisive military victory at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Amir Peretz, Labor Party Chairman, then, was inexperienced in his position as Defense Minister during that war. Israelis haven’t forgotten how humiliated they felt about the government’s conduct, and how weak Israel’s Defense Forces (the IDF) performed at the time.

Barak, one of the most decorated generals in Israel’s history, was somewhat successful, as Israeli Defense Minister, in overseeing Israel’s battles with Hamas in the recent Gaza war. Yet, his Labor Party still lost the confidence of many Israelis who voted at the polls.

Avigdor Lieberman of Israel Beitenu experienced a significant surge in popularity during the election campaign. Lieberman’s main point of contention has been with the Israeli Arabs living inside the State of Israel. He has wanted to introduce a Citizenship Law in the Knesset. It would require all citizens, including Israeli Arabs to sign a loyalty document; learn the national anthem; and express their loyalty to the Jewish State.

Lieberman’s tough attitude towards Israeli Arabs has garnered favor among Israeli Jewish citizens. They want the nation to appear strong and not weak in the face of Arab hostility -- both inside and outside the country.

Israel Beitenu stated their objectives clearly throughout the election campaign, wanting to address the problems in Israeli society, and hoping to change the status quo. Israel Beitenu has demanded alterations in Israeli law to accommodate civil marriages; and, is looking for solutions to simplify the conversion process to Judaism.

Interestingly, 20% of Israeli Arabs voted for Jewish parties rather than Arab parties during Israel’s general elections. A surprising number voted for United Torah Judaism (UTJ), a right-wing Haredi party. UTJ called on the Arabs to help them battle the influence of Israel Beitenu, because they considered Lieberman racist towards the Arabs and too secular towards the ultra-Orthodox Jews.

A total of 21 women will sit in the next Knesset, the largest number ever to be in the legislative body since the state of Israel was born in 1948.

FOREIGN POLICY DIFFERENCES

Livni, even sitting in Israel's opposition, is expected to challenge Netanyahu's government, especially regarding the diplomatic process. She supports a two-state solution – Israel, side-by-side, a Palestinian state. She also supports a withdrawal from most of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). She has negotiated on the division of Jerusalem. Her position on the Golan Heights is not clear, but she would be expected to challenge Netanyahu to sign a comprehensive peace deal with Syria that would include a withdrawal from the Heights.

Netanyahu is more of a hardliner. His national security strategy is to develop military strength to prepare for battles against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, and to keep Syria in check.

Though Netanyahu doesn’t rule out a type of Palestinian state in the future, where the Palestinians will have some kind of self-rule, he wants to take a different approach to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. He does not want to be pushed by the international community to work out a “land for peace” deal with the Palestinians.

Reciprocity is important to Netanyahu. He wants to see the Palestinians do their part to crackdown on terror, collect weapons from terrorist groups, stop incitement on the streets and in the schools. If the Palestinians show a willingness to advance in peace negotiations at this level of reciprocity, Israel will do its part to open borders, stop building in settlements, and consider giving more military oversight to the Palestinians in the West Bank.

In addition, Netanyahu wants to approach peace negotiations from the bottom-up. He has a plan that would provide economic incentives to help the Palestinian build a better life. His idea is to introduce massive financial investment into the Palestinian sector. He is also calling for regional cooperation with Jordan.

Livni prefers the top–down approach. She wants Israel to carry forth the diplomatic process she began under Ehud Olmert's government. She is looking for a solution that requires an international agreement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Once an agreement is finalized, and approved by Israel’s Security Cabinet, Livni would most likely look to Israeli citizens to fulfill their obligations to the Palestinians, obeying the rule of law. Forcing settlers to withdraw from their homes in the West Bank could start a civil war.


ISRAELI-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to actively and aggressively push for a two-state solution in the Middle East, within the context of a comprehensive peace in the region, most likely focusing on the Arab Peace Initiative.

Dr. Yuval Steinitz, Likud Knesset member, and close advisor to Netanyahu, spoke to this writer about the Arab Peace Initiative in an interview conducted during the Jerusalem Conference in January 2009.

“The good element is that this is the first time the Arab League is calling for general peace with Israel by all the Arab states. This is positive. But, the request for a total withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and the partition of Jerusalem, is totally unacceptable. Even President Obama recognized Israel’s need for defensible borders. And, therefore, I believe this is a non-starter. It is the same in the mentioning of the return of Palestinian ‘refugees’ into Israel, which is totally unacceptable. So, let the Arab League change this initiative in order for us to be able to consider it.”

Several of Israel’s left-wing leaders see the Arab Peace Initiative as a starting point in negotiations, even though Arab states say it is a non-negotiable plan. Part of the coalition agreement between Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu involves an acceptance of a comprehensive peace deal. This could mean that Netanyahu will be pressured by Barak to enter into negotiations over the Arab Peace Initiative.

OBAMA'S INTENTIONS

Meanwhile, in his second day in office, Obama attended the State Department ceremony that appointed George Mitchell as the new American envoy to the Middle East. Mitchell is an experienced and tough negotiator, and he may very well prod, push, and exert his influence on the peace process to get concessions out of Israel and the Palestinians.

At the State Department, Obama signaled to the world that he plans to apply substantial pressure on Israel and the Palestinians to end the conflict. Furthermore, it is expected that he will look for the two parties to reach a final status agreement during his reign in office.

According to the assessment of one Middle East analyst, Obama’s foreign policy team is made up of centrists who have a pragmatic approach to this region. His team seems to encompass the center position of the Democratic Party.

As Israel forms a national unity government, it will be in line with a centrist approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In that way, Netanyahu is expected to get along with Obama and the American Democratic Congress. The Obama Administration's focus may be to push Israel into a regional peace deal.

Many Likud members in Netanyahu’s own party are hesitant about a “land for peace” deal happening now. Since it appears that Obama favors this idea, because he wants to form an alliance with moderate Arabs countries to bring calm to the region, this already shows the possible friction that may occur between Israeli and U.S. leaders in the future.

An additional point for concern is that, since the Gaza war, fewer Americans are supportive of U.S. ties with Israel, although Congressional support for the Jewish state remains strong.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry will continue to court members of the U.S. Congress, the Jewish community, and grassroots America in order to garner public support, as a cornerstone of Israel’s foreign policy efforts. But, the chemistry between Netanyahu and Obama will determine if the U.S.-Israel relationship will be a smooth or rocky road in 2009 and beyond.


“For unto us a Child is born. Unto us a Son is given. And, His name will be called, Wonderful, Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace. Of the increase of His government and peace, there will be no end; Upon the throne of David and over His Kingdom; to order it and establish it with judgment and justice from that time forward, even forever. The zeal of the Lord of Hosts will perform this.” Isaiah 9:6-7

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) PRAY FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT BEING FORMED, AND FOR THE 18TH KNESSET:

(a) for humble leaders (Isaiah 57:15; Isaiah 66:2; Proverbs 3:3-4).

(b) for leaders who fear the Lord more than men (Psalm 118:9; Psalm 146:3).

(c) for those, who, through righteousness will bring the blessing of God (Proverbs 14:34; Psalm 37:6).

(d) that there will be no unholy alliances; no blackmailing; no backroom dealings (Leviticus 10:10-11).

(2) PRAY FOR UNITY IN THE NATION OF ISRAEL:

(a) for God’s Presence to come (2 Chronicles 7:1-4).

(b) that God’s Covenant will be acknowledged and obeyed (Exodus 19:5-6).

(c) that God’s Divine Order will be established properly (Exodus 18:19-23).

(d) for Reconciliation: Jew vs. Arab; right vs. left; government vs. settlers; Orthodox vs. secular; ethnic tensions of Ethiopian & Russian immigrants vs. native-born Israelis (2 Chronicles 7:14; Genesis 33:1-4; Genesis 45:1-15; Ephesians 4:2-3).

(e) that Israel’s citizens will honor and respect the new leaders being appointed (1 Timothy 2:1-8)

(3) PRAY FOR CALM TO COME TO THE NATIONS -- Reconciliation of the nations to God and to Israel:

(a) Kiss the Son lest He be angry (Psalm 2:10-12).

(b) Sheep vs. Goat nations (Matthew 25:32-34).

(c) Swords into Plowshares (Isaiah 2:4; Micah 4:3).

(4) PRAY PROTECTION FOR JEWS FROM GLOBAL ANTI-SEMITISM, AND FROM ACTS OF REVENGE BY TERRORISTS:

(a) Protection from evil plots (Exodus 15:6-13; Esther 8:17).

(5) PRAY THAT ISRAEL WILL FULFILL ITS CALLING TO BE A LIGHT TO THE NATIONS:

(Isaiah 2:3; Isaiah 9:2; Isaiah 49:5-6; Isaiah 60:1-2; Zechariah 8:23).