SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XXV

Jerusalem, Israel

THE CHANGING MIDDLE EAST

Most of the global public would look at May 31, 2010, as the day that rapid change took place in the Middle East. That is the day that Israeli naval commandos boarded the Mavi Marmara ship, one of several ships in a Turkish sponsored flotilla that was trying to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

As they descended on ropes from helicopters, the Israeli commandos faced violent Islamic extremists. Using metal bars, knives, clubs, and a pistol they grabbed from an Israeli soldier, the extremists seemed intent on a lynching. Acting in self-defense, the Israeli commandos shot and killed nine men. On the Israeli side, several commandos were wounded by the extremists. At least one commando was seriously injured in the head, and then further hurt when he was thrown over the ship railing.

The flotilla of ships claimed to be carrying humanitarian aid and peace activists to Gaza. But, along with the aid and activists were at least 40 terrorists on board the Mavi Marmara ship, some of whom were on Israel’s most wanted list. Activists on board other ships in the flotilla surrendered to Israeli military forces without incident.

Israel botched the takeover of the Mavi Marmara ship because the Israeli navy had faulty intelligence and was not prepared to meet terrorists on board. All those who died were Turkish nationalists. The incident caused an unprecedented global outcry. Many embassies around the world demanded an explanation from Israeli diplomats, and countries were quick to cut off ties with Israel. The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted Israel in the media, downgraded relations with the Jewish State, and has since threatened to take the matter to the international court, accusing Israel of war crimes. After the flotilla incident, nations began to demand that Israel not only open up its border crossings into Gaza, but also allow the Gaza sea port to be developed and opened to ship traffic.

Before this crisis, there were already telltale signs that change was coming to the region, but no one expected that a flotilla of ships would start a war of attrition at sea. Now, Israel waits for more ships to try and break the Gaza blockade.

Relations With America and Europe

Since the flotilla crisis, Israel has yielded to American pressure, and opened up the border crossings to allow all food supplies and household goods into Gaza. The only materials being held back are those that could be used by terrorists to make rockets. Israel will also not allow any arms to get to the Hamas terrorist regime that rules Gaza.

Bowing to the demands of President Barack Obama’s Administration, Israel has agreed to allow economic prosperity to flourish in Gaza, even though it’s expected to greatly strengthen the political power of Hamas, and increase the group’s popularity among Gaza’s residents.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also agreed to allow EU inspectors at Israeli border crossings, which, in essence, means that Israel will be sharing some control of the Gaza periphery. This is an unusual step and could pave the way for Israel to eventually agree to a permanent international monitoring force along its borders. Until now, Israeli officials have cited the failure of such forces to have an impact on arms smuggling. This has been the case in Lebanon where UN international forces have not stopped weapons transfers to Hezbollah, under the requirements of UN Security Resolution 1701. This resolution was supposed to be enforced after the Second Lebanon War, but the resolution was never really implemented.

Because of increased tensions between Netanyahu and Obama, Israel’s Prime Minister has put his Defense Minister Ehud Barak in charge of Israel’s strategic cooperation with the U.S. Barak has used this influential position to appease the Obama Administration. He has threatened Netanyahu that his Labor Party may bolt the Israeli government if certain conditions are not met. Those conditions are, apparently, Obama’s current demands of Israel.

This attempt by the Obama Administration to influence Israel’s foreign policy, and to pressure Israel’s coalition members, could eventually lead to a political shake-up of the Israeli government. Since the flotilla crisis, a weakened and isolated Israel has given the Obama Administration more leverage on the diplomatic front. Despite Israel’s recent concessions regarding Gaza, the White House has stated that it will work with its international partners to explore additional ways to improve the situation in Gaza, including greater freedom of movement and commerce between Gaza and the West Bank.

What this signals is Obama’s support for reconciliation efforts between Fatah and Hamas. This would unify the Palestinians, and strengthen their demand for a contiguous independent state stretching from the West Bank to Gaza. It would make it more difficult for Israel to stop arms smuggling, or to stop collaboration between terrorist groups. Any rockets received by West Bank terrorists could be used against Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, and against civilian populations in coastal cities. If Obama is truly behind Fatah-Hamas unity, it would indicate a significant change in U.S. foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Turkey seems to have aspirations of becoming the mediator in future Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks. Egypt has been mediating between the two groups for several years now, but has failed to get the parties to agree to certain demands for reconciliation.

International Approval and Pressure

Israel still has the approval of the U.S., along with the Quartet (U.S., UN, EU, and Russia) to keep the Gaza sea port closed to direct traffic. This includes inhibiting any new construction of the port which would enhance the ability of Hamas to receive large cargo ships.

Netanyahu said, in a weekly cabinet meeting on June 10, 2010, that Israel would not allow the establishment of an Iranian port in Gaza. Israel’s intent is to prevent Iranian missiles from being smuggled in to Gaza through the port. But, there is a call by some in the European community to allow aid ships to be inspected by international monitoring forces stationed off the coast of Cyprus. Then, after inspection and approval, the ships could sail on to Gaza. This, however, would curtail Israel’s ability to monitor the ships for arms and contraband. So far, Israel has been able to ward off this kind of intrusion into its security efforts at sea.

Relations With Turkey

At one time, the Israeli tourism industry boasted more than 100,000 flights from Tel Aviv to Turkey, which have now been cancelled following the flotilla crisis. At least 500,000 Israeli tourists once enjoyed Turkish hospitality at inexpensive hotels and resorts. Now, some tour companies claim Israeli tourism to Turkey has come to a screeching halt.

Since early June, at least $20 million in trade between Israel and Turkey has been in jeopardy, as well as lucrative arm sales to the Turkish military by Israel’s defense industries. Turkey has been increasingly critical towards Israel since the Gaza War of 2008-2009. Interested in a closer relationship with Hamas, Turkey is gaining popularity in Gaza. Before Operation Cast Lead, Israel and Turkey enjoyed landmark military cooperation and a strategic partnership. Now, Israeli military officials are concerned that the Turkish government’s access to advanced Israeli military technology could result in leaks to the Hamas regime. Turkey has stopped participating in military exercises with Israel, while pursuing upgrades in military cooperation with Syria.

Israeli-Turkish relations were deteriorating long before the flotilla crisis, due to Erdogan’s growing interest in renewing ties with the Islamic world. Turkey had already irritated Israel and the U.S. when it tried, with Brazil, to broker a deal with Iran over its nuclear issue. Turkey and Brazil were the only countries to recently vote against UN sanctions imposed on Iran.

Erdogan’s ambition may be to create an atmosphere for Turkey to become a leading regional superpower. To do this, he seems willing to sacrifice Turkey’s diplomatic and military relations with Israel. Sunni Turkey may want to eventually usurp Shiite Iran in becoming the ultimate defender of Islam. With ties to NATO and the West; and, with a more stable economy than Iran; Erdogan has already extended his influence in the Islamic world, in a way that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has failed to do.

Israel's P.O.W. Held In Gaza -- Gilad Shalit

The bolster to Hamas in Israel easing restrictions at the Gaza border crossings also complicates the negotiation process for the release of Israel’s soldier being held captive in Gaza. Hamas has not allowed Gilad Shalit’s family the Red Cross, or humanitarian groups to see Shalit since Hamas kidnapped him on June 25, 2006. Now that Hamas has been strengthened by the diplomatic community, its price for a prisoner exchange with Israel will be higher. Israel has agreed to release several hundred Palestinian prisoners, but Netanyahu refuses to allow terrorists with blood on their hands to return to their homes in the West Bank. He says past experience has proven that these terrorists will try and strike Israel again.

Conclusion

Some analysts say that the flotilla crisis has been a turning point in Middle East history; that a new order has now emerged. Turkey has shifted into the Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza axis; and, Islamic forces in the region have been emboldened. Turkey is now a popular supporter of Iran’s terrorist proxy, Hamas; and, Turkey’s stature within the Islamic world has greatly improved.

The greatest challenge to Israel since the flotilla crisis is that it recognizes it doesn’t yet have a clear deterrence policy in place to stop more flotillas from attempting to break the Gaza blockade. Israel’s long-term security interests may have been weakened by its recent concessions to the international community to ease the flow of goods to Gaza. At the same time, Hamas reached its goal of isolating Israel, diplomatically, while solidifying its control over the Gaza Strip. And, Israel’s POW Gilad Shalit is still being held captive by Hamas, going on four years since the Second Lebanon War.

While the Middle East is experiencing change, some things never change.... Israel’s challenges now and in the future are as daunting as ever.


“The Lord brings the counsel of the nations to nothing. He makes the plans of the peoples of no effect. The counsel of the Lord stands forever; The plans of His heart to all generations. Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord; The people He has chosen as His own inheritance.” Psalm 33:10-12

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) Without cause the nations have hidden their net for Israel in a pit, which they have dug without caring about Israel's survival. (See Psalm 35:7).

Psalm 9:15-16 states: "The nations have sunk down in the pit which they made. In the net which they hid, their own foot is caught. The Lord is known by the judgment He executes. The wicked is snared in the work of his own hands."

Pray for the Lord to have mercy as the nations fall into their own snare. Those nations who have set a trap for Israel will fall into that trap. Pray that the nations will have a revelation of the God of Israel protecting and defending His land.

(2) Pray that God will grant increased wisdom to the Netanyahu government in the mist of this continued crisis at sea. Not yielding to risky concessions demanded by the international community, pray that the current government coalition will remain steadfast and unified.

Pray for God's favor over Israel, and continue to proclaim her destiny as a "light to the nations". Pray that with the compromises the Israeli government has already made, that God will protect Israel's borders, as well as the passageways into Gaza.

Pray that He will alert the IDF to any terrorist infiltration.

"Strengthen the weak hands, and make firm the feeble knees. Say to those who are fearful-hearted, 'Be strong, do not fear! Behold, your God will come with vengeance; with the recompense of God; He will come and save you.' " Isaiah 35:3-4.

(3) Pray that those who have been disobedient at sea, in these flotilla of ships, will be exposed in their evil deeds, and that God will contend with them.

Pray that they will repent and turn to the Lord.

"O Lord, were You displeased with the rivers? Was your anger against the rivers? Was Your wrath against the sea, that you rode on Your horses, Your chariots of salvation?" Habakkuk 3:8.

(4) Pray that God will uncover all the plots of the wicked and establish justice and righteousness in the earth.

"Therefore, do not fear them. For there is nothing covered that will not be revealed, and hidden that will not be known." Matthew 10:26.

(5) Pray for Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, that he would have a revelation of the One True God.

"He has shown you, O Man, what is good; And, what does the Lord require of you... but, to do justly; to love mercy; and, to walk humbly with your God?" Micah 6:8.

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XXIV

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL’S CRISIS AT SEA

FACTS:

• There was a pre-dawn raid on Monday, by Israel’s navy, of a Gaza-bound protest flotilla of six ships, called, “Free Gaza”. The ship captains claimed to be carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza. However, they also admitted their real intent was to break Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip. Israel is, technically, at war with Hamas in Gaza, and is not willing to allow weapons into Gaza by ship; or, the release of certain materials that could be used by Hamas to build rockets.


• Reports indicate that the protest flotilla was organized by a radical Islamic group, called IHH (an Istanbul-based Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief). It’s based in Turkey, with ties to Hamas and the Moslem Brotherhood. Between 600-700 activists were on-board the ships.


• Israel warned the ships not to break the blockade, and to proceed, instead to Ashdod port, where they could deliver their humanitarian aid. Israel promised to get the aid to the people of Gaza. The captains of the ships refused to obey Israel’s orders.


• The Israeli navy then ordered helicopters to proceed toward the ships in the Mediterranean Sea. About 80 miles from the Gaza coast, the helicopters released naval commandos to drop into the ships and seize control. The Israeli navy was not prepared for serious violent clashes. When Israeli soldiers descended onto the lead ship, several activists tried to lynch them, using knives, metal and wood bats, clubs, and sticks, beating the soldiers ruthlessly. (There were rocks, detonators, large hammers, slingshots with glass marbles, and sharp metal objects on-board, as well). The violent activists threw a soldier over a third-story railing, and he sustained serious head injuries. They used stun grenades and Molotov cocktails against Israeli troops. And, they captured pistols from some of the commandos, and started to shoot. The commandos, in an act of self-defense, returned fire. At least 10 activists were killed. Many were wounded by the violent clashes on the lead ship, including at least seven Israeli soldiers. Most of those killed and wounded were Turkish nationals.


• The activists also tried to tie the ropes dangling from the helicopters, to the lead ship, in hopes of bringing down the helicopters.


• Visuals from the Gaza flotilla ship showed young Moslems shouting Islamic battle chants, invoking the killing and defeat of Jews in battle. One women interviewed on Al-Jazeera said that the goal of the flotilla participants was, “one of two happy endings: either martyrdom or reaching Gaza.”


• Israeli commandos had no problem seizing the other five ships, and all activists on-board those ships surrendered peacefully.

• There were members of international parliaments on-board the six ships, including those from Germany, Ireland, Sweden, and Kuwait. There was also a Noble Peace Laureate on-board, as well as, a UN high-level official. As of this writing, there has not been a public statement about the condition of these V.I.P.’s.



• There was an Arab member of Israel’s Knesset on board the lead ship, Haneen Zoabi. She was not harmed. She spent Monday morning in IDF custody because she participated in the ship flotilla.


• Reports indicate that, not only were there anti-Israel activists on-board the ships, but also wanted Hamas terrorists, and those with ties to global jihad and Al-Qaeda.


• Netanyahu was in Canada about ready to leave for Washington, D.C., but postponed his meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama because of the crisis. The meeting was supposed to help repair relations between Obama and Netanyahu.


• Israel’s ambassadors in embassies and consulates, worldwide, were called in by their host governments to explain what happened at sea.


• Greece, Turkey, and Germany cancelled important military exercises with Israel.


• Turkey recalled its ambassador from Israel, saying this was not an Israeli-Turkish incident, but one of Israel’s relationship with the entire international community.


• Criticism and condemnation rose across Europe and the Arab world. Protests and riots occurred on the streets of Turkey, Greece, Pakistan, Lebanon, Syria, Bosnia, France, and England. At least 10,000 Turks marched on Istanbul. About 1,000 Jordanians protested in Amman.


• Arab states, led by Turkey, called for a full investigation by the UN Security Council.


• European states called for an end to the Israeli blockade of Gaza.


• Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas declared three days of mourning in the Palestinian territories. He claimed that Israel planned an assault on the ships in advance, and violated international law. He called for the UN to stand up to Israel; and, demanded that the UN and US intervene and cause Israel to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip.


• Hamas leader, Khaled Mashaal called on Jordan and Egypt to cut off diplomatic ties with Israel.



• Israel’s police and prison services went on the highest state of alert. Unrest in Israeli Arab towns caused clashes with police.


• The U.S. administration did not condemn Israel, but called for an investigation to determine what happened.


• Egypt just opened the Rafah border crossing to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.

FAILURES:

• Senior Israeli officials said the naval operation was a failure. Israeli naval commandos were not prepared for the kind of violence they faced. This was a matter of faulty intelligence gathering on Israel’s part.


• The violent resistance by activists on-board the lead ship was an action designed to serve Hamas and other terrorists in Gaza. Israel acted in self-defense and for its own security interests. However, in the end, this was a successful diplomatic campaign for Hamas, serving Iran’s interests.


• Israel’s public relations officials, who were responsible for getting the facts out quickly to the media, failed to respond in “real time”. They waited many hours to get Israel’s point of view to the media, which was already broadcasting live video from the ships. Israel then went on the defensive, engaging in “damage control” with the media. The government spokesperson’s office and the IDF were too slow in releasing important video that proved Israel’s points: (a) that Israel wasn’t the aggressor; and, (b) that the soldiers acted in self-defense.

FALLOUT:

• A worldwide censure of Israel has already begun. This is an international diplomatic crisis for Israel, which could further isolate the Jewish State, internationally. This could result in a greater deterioration of Israel’s ties with European and Arab states, especially Turkey.


• The UN is expected to condemn Israel, claiming that the ships were carrying humanitarian aid; were in international waters; and that it was illegal for Israel, under international maritime laws, to board the vessels and seize the passengers and cargo. More accusations from the UN are expected, including UN Security Council resolutions against Israel, pointing to Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip.


• Israel has already been accused of war crimes, due to the Goldstone Report; and, threatened with universal jurisdiction, which is already being applied in Britain and Belgium. Israel could be brought before the international court because of this current crisis. And, it’s expected that universal jurisdiction against Israel may be expanded to include other nations. This means, Israeli IDF officers and government leaders could be arrested when traveling abroad.


• Hamas has been trying to prevent peace talks from succeeding between Israel and West Bank Palestinians. This crisis could now help Hamas achieve its goal of breaking the blockade, and derailing peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.


• The Israeli blockade has already fueled anti-Semitism in the Arab world. Great anti-Semitism can be expected in Arab and European states.


• Further tensions are expected within Israel, provoked by Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. There’s talk of another intifada starting.

PRAYER POINTS:

• At least seven Israeli soldiers were injured, two in critical condition, when activists opened fire on Israeli troops. One of the soldiers sustained a critical head injury. Please pray for the complete healing and fast recovery of these Israelis.

• Pray also for the activists that were injured, and comfort for families who lost loved ones on the lead ship.

• This conflict is being fought on the battleground of international public opinion. Pray for this crisis to end quickly, in Israel’s favor. Pray that righteousness, truth, and justice will prevail.


• Pray that the media will report the facts with accuracy and truth, and that those who defend Israel will be heard and received favorably by international viewers and listeners of broadcast and media outlets.


• Pray for protection over Israelis and Jewish people, worldwide, from any backlash as a result of this crisis. Pray, especially, for the Lord to shield Israelis living, working and traveling in Turkey, as the government says the situation has become dangerous there.


• Pray that Israel’s relationship with Turkey will mend and heal. Pray that Turkish leaders, especially, Turkey’s Prime Minister Rajab Tayyip Erdogan, will have a change of heart towards Israel, and believe the truth instead of lies about Israel’s intentions. Pray for Israel to have favor with the Turkish people, as well. Israel needs a good working relationship with Turkish diplomats and generals because of Turkey’s strategic geo-political position in the Middle East region.


• Israel needs good relations with European and Arab states, especially for its defense and security interests. Pray that all strategic defense cooperation will continue; and, that all military exercises scheduled for this time period, will resume immediately.


• Pray that the Israeli government will stand up to pressure and not concede to the Palestinians, Hamas, Syria, the U.S., the UN, the EU, the Quartet, the Arab League, or to any other international entities that would cause Israel to disobey God’s commands. Pray that Israelis call on the name of the Lord, for His mercy, in order to be released from world condemnation because of this crisis.


• Ask God to pre-occupy and distract the nations with other national and international issues and interests, in order for Israel to survive this crisis.


• Pray that all diplomatic challenges Israel is currently facing, will be resolved quickly. Pray that those involved in anti-Israel hatred; that are bent on the de-legitimization of the Jewish State (including the re-writing of history, and the organizing of international boycotts); will be confused in their plans, distracted from their goals, and stopped from carrying out their evil tactics.


• Pray that God will calm the nations, and grant His favor toward Israel, so she can fulfill her biblical calling as a “light to the nations”.


• Left-wing Israelis are contributing to the crisis. They have been protesting the IDF naval raid on the ships; and they are declaring that Israel’s blockade of Gaza is “illegal”. Pray that they would have a change of heart regarding their own nation, and would begin to defend Israel in the face of international condemnation. “A house divided cannot stand.” Pray for greater unity among the citizens of Israel.


• Pray for experienced and intelligent Godly men and women to be put in position to help Israel’s public diplomacy and media challenges. When it comes to winning the media war, every minute counts. Pray that the IDF will coordinate its media campaign with a high degree of excellence and speed.


• Israel allows as much as 15,000 tons of humanitarian aid into Gaza on a daily basis. The humanitarian aid, from the ships, would have been in addition to what Israel already allows into the Gaza Strip. Please pray that this information is distributed, worldwide, reported by the international media, and believed by those who receive it.


• Two more ships are supposed to sail towards Gaza in a few weeks. They are also expected to try and break the blockade. Please pray that the ship organizers encounter difficulties, and that the planned sailing is cancelled.