SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XXVII

Jerusalem, Israel


ISRAEL’S NEED FOR DETERRENCE


Since May 2010, Israel has been experiencing an escalation in attacks that have challenged the nation’s deterrence capabilities. A conflict on the Mediterranean Sea developed when a flotilla of ships, sponsored by Turkey, tried to break Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza. Then, rockets launched by Hamas in Gaza, hit Israel’s southern towns. That was followed by Grad missiles, launched from the Sinai that landed in Israel and Jordan. These missiles were, reportedly, unleashed by a global jihad group associated with Hamas and radical Egyptian Bedouins.

Clashes on Israel’s Northern Border

Most recently, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) shot and killed an Israeli battalion commander, and seriously wounded another Israeli soldier in a border clash. Israel responded with force and killed three Lebanese soldiers and a journalist.

At the time of the Lebanese attack on Israel, the IDF was cutting down a Cyprus tree in one of the enclaves that exists between the Israeli fence and the demarcated Blue Line that marks the internationally recognized border. For several months, the LAF’s 9th Brigade had been provoking Israel in the enclaves. Lebanese soldiers were cocking and aiming their weapons at Israeli soldiers carrying out routine maintenance work. The LAF’s new Shiite officer, who is known to have close ties to Hezbollah, instigated these provocations, despite the fact that the enclaves are technically on the Israeli side of the border.

The recent shooting by the LAF was a further act of aggression, which directly challenged Israel’s sovereignty over the area. The sniper did not target the soldiers in the enclaves, but hit an officer at an IDF post on the Israeli side of the fence.

These on-going acts of hostility by Israel’s enemies have been a test to see how Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) will react, as the region heats up and gets closer to war. Israel must respond harshly and forcefully against any attack on its sovereignty, in order to deter its enemies from striking again. But, while sending that clear message, Israeli leaders are measuring just how hard to respond in order not to embroil the Jewish State in a full scale regional war at this time.

When the time is right, Israel will have to do something about the continued arms build-up in the north by Hezbollah, and in the south by Hamas, that threatens the survival of the Jewish State. Much of the funding, training, and arming of these two formidable foes comes from Iran. The longer Israel waits, the harder it will be for the Jewish State to defeat its enemies.

The deterioration of Israel’s deterrence capabilities continues, while the balance of power in the Middle East tips towards rogue states and non-state terrorist groups in the region. If Israel doesn’t take action soon, its enemies will.

Hezbollah has increased its political and military control over Lebanon. The terrorist group has become a strong force on the ground -- infiltrating the ranks of the LAF; setting up its own telecommunications system; increasing its intelligence gathering; and executing alleged spies it says have collaborated with Israel. Hezbollah has reportedly been relying on informants and Shiite sympathizers within the LAF to make sure that Hezbollah’s resistance force against Israel remains strong, especially in southern Lebanon.

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has been building a recent case against Israel to curry favor with the Lebanese public. His guerilla group faces a possible indictment by an international tribunal in The Hague, which is planning to implicate Hezbollah in the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Concerned that an indictment will hurt Hezbollah’s image in Lebanon, and decrease its political and military influence in the country, Nasrallah wants to pin the assassination blame on Israel. To distract the international community from its problems at home, Hezbollah will continue to try and engage Israel in hostilities on the Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, these border clashes advance Iran and Syria’s interests. Iran wants to distract the international community from its determination to become a nuclear state, so it has used Hezbollah and the LAF to stir up trouble with Israel. Syria has taken advantage of the increased border tensions to reestablish its political presence as the “guardian” of stability in Lebanon. Syria continues to build-up Hezbollah’s missile and weapons arsenal, which gives it greater influence over Lebanon’s military forces, as well.

If Israel faces more skirmishes on its northern border, the IDF will increase its use of armored vehicles and infantry forces to serve as a deterrent to any further action by the LAF or Hezbollah. With less restrictions on the rules of engagement for Israeli soldiers, the risk of war increases.

Middle Eastern Alliances

There is now a strong Iran-Syria-Lebanon-Gaza axis in the Middle East that Turkey is intent on joining. While alliances among Islamic states and radical groups are getting stronger, Western nations are engaging in appeasement policies with Israel’s enemies. In the Middle East, perceived weakness invites further aggression.

When clashes erupt on Israel’s borders, rather than come to Israel’s defense, the international community calls for “mutual restraint”. Global leaders do not fully stand by Israel in the face of these attacks from radical elements. Moreover, the appeasement actions of these global leaders embolden Israel’s enemies. What’s troubling is that Israel’s military deterrence is eroding, while its diplomatic favor within the international community is shrinking, as global leaders refuse to accept Israel’s military responses as acts of self defense.

In the past, the only thing that has kept Israel’s enemies at bay has been the IDF’s controversial use of “disproportionate force.” This very act of deterrence, to keep Israel’s enemies from attacking again, has resulted in a global uproar against the Jewish State. Nevertheless, Israel must continue to defend its citizens, even in the midst of world condemnation.

Meanwhile, Western nations do not seem to discern a targeted and successful Islamic-led diplomatic campaign, intent on delegitimizing Israel in international forums, which has resulted in undermining Israel’s security and threatening its survival.

Unilateral Withdrawals

Not only are Israeli leaders facing an upward battle militarily and diplomatically, but the peace process has become another obstacle in the nation’s future ability to defend itself. Politically, while it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been the one to try and engage the resistant and stubborn Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in direct peace talks, it is Abbas that has really had the upper hand. Despite enormous world pressure on Abbas to begin negotiating directly with Netanyahu, he is waiting until his demands are met...i.e., more concessions from Israel.

Former Prime Minister and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak is not only Israel’s most decorated military general; he is also a statesman who has negotiated with the Palestinians in times past. He was recently quoted as saying Israel will need to take unilateral action in the future in regard to the peace process.

In May 2000, Barak ordered the IDF to unilaterally withdraw from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah filled the vacuum. This eventually led to a war between Israel and Hezbollah in the summer of 2006.

In August 2005, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the unilateral withdrawal of IDF forces, and the removal of settlers from their homes in Gaza. Hamas filled the vacuum. This eventually led to a war between Israel and Hamas in the winter of 2008-2009.

To-date, it is the IDF more than Palestinian forces that has kept Hamas from taking control of West Bank cities. Any Israeli unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), to appease the Palestinians and Arab nations, will bring about a continual erosion of Israel’s deterrence capabilities. Instead of missiles being launched from Gaza into Israel’s southern towns, Hamas will be able to launch missiles from the West Bank and hit Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. This is what Israel can expect if it concedes to the Palestinians and decides to unilaterally withdraw its forces and citizens from land, without a formal peace agreement that ends the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Future Expectations

Each time there is a renewal of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, the result is terror and warfare against the Jewish State. One reason for this is because Iran and its proxies do not want peace in the Middle East. But, it is the goal of U.S. President Barak Obama to see quiet on the streets in order to form a strong coalition of Arab and European nations to take future action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Yet, Obama, like other former U.S. presidents, does not understand that peace cannot be forced on Israeli and Palestinian leaders, especially when the gaps are too wide. Therefore, his attempt at pushing a timetable and trying to pressure both parties into a final status agreement has, so far, been fruitless.

Meanwhile, U.S. leaders have admitted that if sanctions against Iran don’t work, America has a contingency plan to attack Iran in order to stop its nuclear program. Iran says it will retaliate by disrupting oil shipments in the Persian Gulf, and will use strong force against American military bases in the Gulf region. Iranian leaders have also stated that Iran will retaliate by hitting Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities.

While Israel’s borders are heating up, and a regional war seems inevitable, there is also the risk of a world war, if Iran does not back down from its intent on developing nuclear bombs and weapons.

If Western nations will recognize Israel’s need to respond forcefully when confronted by Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, these nations will be more prepared to face Iran’s direct actions. A strong Israel could be helpful to a U.S. led coalition of Arab and European states. Demonstrating power in the face of a formidable foe could be what’s needed to stop Iran before it’s too late.


“Do not keep silent, O God! Do not hold Your peace; and, do not be still, O God! For behold, Your enemies make a tumult; and, those who hate You have lifted up their head. They have taken crafty counsel against Your people; and, consulted together against Your sheltered ones. They have said, ‘Come, and let us cut them off from being a nation, that the name of Israel may be remembered no more.’ For they have consulted together with one consent; they form a confederacy against You.” Psalm 83:1-5