SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 51

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL’S PUBLIC DEBATE ON IRAN

During the past several weeks there have been clear signs that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his government, the opposition, and his allies are grappling over a preliminary strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even within Netanyahu’s inner cabinet it has been reported that there are serious disagreements among members regarding what to do about Iran.

Much of the debate between current and former Israeli officials has been public; and, strong differences of opinions have been reported in interviews conducted by the Israeli media. Journalists continue to reveal the divisiveness among leaders regarding whether to strike now; wait for another round of diplomacy; or, let the U.S. take the lead on future military action against Iran.

Many Israelis claim that, as a sovereign nation, Israel should be able to act independently. Others say that Washington should be notified when Jerusalem leaders make a decision on Iran. A majority of Israelis are counting on the U.S. for major support as they do not want Israeli Defense Forces (the IDF) to act alone. 

U.S. President Barack Obama’s promise that America has Israel’s back has not convinced a skeptical Israeli population. Middle East analysts in Israel and abroad have challenged the U.S. president to present a clear cut plan as to when American diplomacy with Iran ends and military preparations begin. 

Publicly, the comments coming from the Obama Administration have not put Israelis at ease. This has become a sore point which has brought the debate to a fevered pitch. 

Despite differences between the U.S. and Israel on a diplomatic level, there has been unprecedented strategic defense cooperation in recent years.  In lieu of this, a media report published August 22, 2012 suggests that the Obama Administration is beginning to take some initiative towards military preparedness. The Seattle Times article claims that U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta ordered the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier to deploy back to the Middle East about four months earlier than planned. Panetta stressed that the early deployment will deal with the current threats in the region including Iran and the continued chaos in Syria. He said the U.S. wants to be prepared with any contingency that develops in the region. This seemingly minor action seems to indicate that the Pentagon has started to listen to Israel’s concern on some level.

In the meantime, what can be expected if Israel decides to conduct a pre-emptive military strike against Iran?  Hezbollah currently has at least 60,000 missiles in its weapons arsenal, and the IDF is prepared if the Lebanese terrorist militia begins firing them at the Israeli home front. If Iran also gives orders to Gaza terror groups, then Islamic Jihad or Hamas is expected to launch a missile attack on Israel. The Jewish State has already warned that parts of Lebanon and Gaza may be destroyed in order for Israel to protect its home front.  On a global level, if there is a major confrontation, Israelis and Jews traveling abroad may come under fire from terrorists who sympathize with Iran.

Israel has been training its pilots for many years but the question is what Middle East country will allow the Israeli Air Force (IAF) to fly over its airspace to Iran? The northern route would put the IAF over a portion of Turkey and Syria. Israel’s diplomatic relations with Turkey have diminished, considerably, and it is unlikely that Turkey or Syria (an enemy of Israel) would allow any IAF flyovers. The southern route to Iran would take Israeli pilots over Saudi Arabia airspace. While this is feasible, it means that IAF jets would need to refuel in the Saudi desert. The central route would take Israel over Jordan and Iraq, which would be the shortest route, but the most diplomatically problematic to get permission for flyovers.

In the midst of talk about a possible war with Iran, there are Israeli home front preparations taking place in the north of the country. Reports indicate that some northern citizens are already making plans to flee the country for fear of a major war coming soon. 

While much of the international community is focused on a possible Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran, the Jewish State is preparing for a future conflict with Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah.  Recently, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel when he claimed that he is preparing to send troops into the Galilee. He also maintained that if Israel strikes Iran, Hezbollah will join Iran in a counterstrike against Israel.

There’s a high probability that Iranian leaders will direct Hezbollah to provoke a conflict with Israel in order to try and stop the IDF from attacking Iran. 

The IDF is also monitoring the civil war in Syria.  Syria is Iran’s ally and Iran’s mullahs are determined to make sure that Syrian President Bashar Assad stays in power. If Syria’s Sunni majority is able to take over the Assad regime, the axis of power that Shiite Iran has developed in the region (Syria-Lebanon-Iraq) will be weakened considerably. Assad’s rule in Syria also guarantees the survival of Iranian-backed Hezbollah. 

Hezbollah not only controls southern Lebanon, it has substantial influence within the Lebanese Armed Forces, and is a major political player in the Lebanese government. If Syria collapses, Assad’s minority Alawite forces may find refuge in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. This would result in expanding the Shiite stronghold there which would be protected by Hezbollah.  It would re-energize Hezbollah’s guerilla war against Israel.

Recognizing that the U.S. could lose friends in the Middle East by leading a coalition against Iran, the Obama Administration has been counting the cost of getting involved. Reportedly, the Iranian Quds Force has been behind recent terror attacks against Western targets in the Middle East. More attacks can be expected if the White House chooses to clearly define and prepare for military action against Iran. 

It is well known that Hezbollah has “sleeper cells” in the United States that could be mobilized should America lead a war against Iran.  Recently, Iran showed off its military capabilities, including a new line of short-range missiles that could hit U.S. troops in the Gulf region. The missiles could also be used against ships in the Straits of Hormuz to paralyze the oil industry. 

With the American presidential elections coming up in November, it seems that Obama is treading carefully when it comes to saber rattling vis-à-vis Iran.

Obama and Netanyahu seem to agree that containing Iran is not only about stopping its nuclear aggression, but also about weakening its terror alliances. Lately, there has been great Iranian investment in plots to assassinate Israelis in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.  Iran’s Middle East terror groups continue to speak of eradicating the Jewish State and bringing the West to its knees.  The weakening of Iran’s power and resolve is a high priority in Israel and the U.S.

Netanyahu also agrees with Obama on the need to continue strong international sanctions against Iran in order to force it to comply with U.N. resolutions. But, recent comments by American Vice President Joseph Biden, boasting of accomplishments in the U.S.-Israel relationship to strengthen and care for Israel’s well-being in the midst of regional terror threats, have not been comforting to Israelis. Claiming record levels of security assistance to Israel; the biggest joint military exercises ever between the two countries; high-level intelligence exchanges between the two allies; and bi-weekly discussions between top generals from both nations has still not been what Israeli leaders hoped to hear in the public forum. 

What Netanyahu continues to look for is public assurances from the White House of a credible U.S. military threat that will cause Iran to stop its work on nuclear weapons.  This may not come to fruition any time soon. 

For Israel, every hesitation and indecisive act by the United States, which causes it to refrain from warning leaders in Tehran, brings Israel one step closer to taking independent decisive military action against Iran in order to stop its nuclear quest.

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 50

AUGUST 2012 PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Middle East

Syria’s chemical weapons:  Syrian President Bashar Assad has threatened to use his vast stockpile of chemical and biological weapons against any foreign entity that tries to interfere with the conflict in Syria.  Israel has announced that it will take action against any attempt by Assad or his government to transfer the WMD’s to Hezbollah or other radical groups. The IDF has been on high alert on the Israeli-Syrian border, acquiring intelligence, and keeping a watchful eye on Syria’s weapons stockpile. Israel is also watching to see if Assad tries to smuggle more advanced weapons systems to Hezbollah. 

Israeli Golan Heights & Syria: For the first time since 1973, there are heavy battles between the Assad regime and the Syrian local population on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak recently visited the area and could hear mortar fire in Damascus, where heavy battles were taking place between the regime and opposing forces.  Over 500 Syrian soldiers were recently dispersed to the de-militarized zone between Israel and Syria.  The war in Syria is getting more brutal.  There is no mercy on the part of Assad and his forces.  They are shelling and destroying entire villages. Syria’s main cities – Damascus and Aleppo – are now under fire. 

More than 1.5 million Syrian refugees are on the move.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has prepared the IDF for the possibility of an influx of refugees. Israel is reportedly setting up refugee camps in the enclaves between the Israeli and Syrian borders. 

The Israeli government is concerned that radical Islamists, like Al Qaeda, might try and use the Syrian Golan Heights as a launching pad for terrorist attacks against Israel. With Assad’s government occupied in fighting the rebels in Aleppo and Damascus, little attention is being paid to the control needed in border towns where militants from other countries are filtering in. 

In another development, Hezbollah is storing its missiles, advanced weapons systems, and ammunition within an extensive underground tunnel network that stretches throughout Lebanon. The tunnel network, which is supervised by Iranian agents, can resist Israeli air and land attacks. The tunnels reach deep into Syria and, reportedly, Hezbollah can smuggle their rockets through Syrian territory.  This is another way that the northern border with Israel is being used by enemies of the Jewish State to advance their evil goals.

In recent news, Israel’s security services arrested an Israeli Druse man who had been traveling back and forth from Israel to Syria as a medical student since 2005. He was arrested for providing information about security at the Kuneitra border crossing between Israel and Syria. He gave the locations of northern IDF bases and training centers in the north. And he spied on Israeli Druse living in the Golan Heights who were opposed to the Assad regime.

PRAYER POINTS:

·        There has been much saber-rattling going on between Israel, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Any slight unusual move and a conflict could flare-up on Israel’s northern border.  Israeli troops are prepared for every possible scenario. Pray that the Lord will give Israeli military commanders an extra measure of insight, wisdom, alertness, and discernment. Intercede for top Israeli officers to know when it is essential to strike at enemy forces and when it is not – according to God’s will and timing. 

·        Pray for Israel’s home front to be prepared and not fear. Ask the Lord for an extra measure of faith and courage for the citizens of Israel at this time.  Declare, according to Psalm 91:7-8, that Israeli citizens will be safe from the coming missile war.  “A thousand may fall at your side, and ten thousand at your right hand, but it shall not come near you. Only with your eyes shall you look, and see the reward of the wicked.”

·        Pray that all evil plots will be exposed and brought into the light, so that Israeli leaders will know the goals of wicked rulers in neighboring countries and take action as directed by the Lord. (Psalm 37:12).

·        Pray that God removes all dangerous weapons aimed at the Jewish State, confuses the enemy, and renders these weapons useless, in Jesus’ name!

·        Pray that the Lord will put His shield of protection over Israel’s border with Syria. Ask the Lord to repair all damage done by the Druse spy who was recently arrested. Pray that, in the future, Israeli intelligence agencies will be quick to catch all those who are spying on IDF soldiers and bases.

·        Pray that the Israeli government will be ready for Syrian refugees that try to cross into Israel, and will show God’s mercy to all those who are truly seeking shelter and food and have no agenda that would harm the state of Israel.

·        Pray for the Syrians to know the peace that passes all understanding in Messiah Yeshua. Pray that through these times of great darkness, the Syrian people will have dreams and visions of the Messiah and turn to Him.

·        Pray that all violence and bloodshed will stop now in Yeshua’s name! Pray that God will shelter all Syrian citizens that are caught in the crossfire between Assad’s army and rebel forces.

·        Proclaim Psalm 82:3-4 for Syrians who are suffering under the brutal dictatorship of Bashar Assad. They do not understand why he is unleashing violence on their cities and villages.  As the foundations of their lives are crumbling, ask the Lord to reach out His hand of love and compassion.  Pray that He will subdue those in the Assad regime who are oppressing and murdering the Syrian people.  Ask God to turn His hand against these adversaries.

·        The Lord is mighty and capable to remove Assad and his family from Syria. Pray that his family and those Syrians who have contributed to the mass killings of civilians would be humbled and convicted of their crimes.                  (see Psalm 83:13-18).

Christians in Gaza:

Five ethnic Christians were recently kidnapped by an Islamic group in Gaza who forced them to convert to Islam. Those attacked were part of the Greek Orthodox Church. The church claims that “a dangerous Islamic movement is trying to persuade Christian youth and women to convert to Islam, thereby destroying Christian families and the Christian presence in the Gaza Strip”. (Palestinian Media Watch, 7/25/12).

PRAYER POINT:

Ask the Lord to bring the truth and light of the gospel to all Gazans. Pray that those Christians who converted to Islam will return to the Lord and bring many other Gazans to salvation.  Declare John 14:6 over Gaza: “Jesus answered, ‘I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through Me.’ ”

Egypt, Gaza, Sinai:

As Egypt births its new government, it is likely that Sunni Islamists from throughout the Middle East, who align themselves with the Moslem Brotherhood, will have great favor and influence in the halls of the Egyptian parliament. Already, Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi has met with two Hamas leaders, strengthening the hand of the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile terrorist cells in the Sinai are expanding and getting more aggressive, hoping to conduct an attack on Israel that would create a diplomatic rift between Egypt and the Jewish State. 

PRAYER POINT:

Proclaim Isaiah 19:17, “And, the land of Judah will be a terror to Egypt; everyone who makes mention of it will be afraid in himself, because of the counsel of the Lord of Hosts which He has determined against it”. Pray that the Egyptians come to respect the God of Israel and His land, and “in that day, there will be an altar to the Lord in the midst of the land of Egypt, and a pillar to the Lord at its border.”  (verse 19).

Iran:

Iranian Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces said in May 2012 that the Iranian nation is standing for its cause which is the full annihilation of Israel. Despite western diplomatic talks with Iran, the Islamic Republic is increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, in defiance of international sanctions. 

Most likely in late fall/early winter 2012, Israel and the U.S. will conduct the largest military drill ever coordinated between the two states. While U.S. President Barack Obama has taken credit for the enhanced strategic cooperation agreement between the two allies, it is the Lord who is directing this close security relationship.  Israel and the U.S. are working on plans for military action against Iran, which analysts predict could occur in 2013 or 2014. 

Iranian leaders have already claimed they will block the Straits of Hormuz if the country is threatened. Iran is increasing its military presence in international waters. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s naval forces have stated they have the ability to stop all oil traffic in the straits.  Meanwhile, America has beefed up its presence in the region, adding naval ships to its growing fleet in the Gulf.  The U.S. has threatened retaliation leading to war if Iran tries to block the narrow straits.

There have been multiple attacks on Israeli diplomatic missions in India, Thailand, and Georgia connected to Iran. An attempted attack on Israelis in Bulgaria was thwarted last year. But, in July 2012, a Hezbollah-Iranian attack was launched on a bus carrying Israelis from the Bulgarian airport to their hotel. The bomber killed five Israelis, a Bulgarian bus driver, and himself. Recently, Iranian nationals were arrested in Kenya, carrying explosives they planned to use on Israeli targets.

PRAYER POINTS:

In the face of Iranian threats, declare that those who curse Israel will be cursed (see Genesis 12:3). Proclaim these words for the citizens of Israel:  “No weapon formed against you shall prosper. And, every tongue which rises against you in judgment, you shall condemn!”  (see Isaiah 54:17). 

Attacks against Israeli targets must cease! Proclaim that God will deliver Israel from evil men; and, preserve Israel from violent men, who plan wickedness in their hearts. (see Psalm 140).  Declare that God will protect Israel’s home front from the devastation's of war, according to Isaiah 26:20:  “Come, my people, enter your chambers and shut your doors behind you; Hide yourself, as it were, for a little moment, until the indignation is past.”