SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XXXV

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL’S QUEST FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING REGION

The recent barrage of rocket and mortar attacks against Israeli southern communities; the brutal murder of five members of a settler family in Itimar, and the first bus bombing in Jerusalem since 2004, has, once again, shattered the sense of calm and well-being in Israel. Citizens are reeling from these recent terror attacks, wondering whether this means that Israel must prepare for another Gaza war; or, the possibility of the Palestinians launching a third Intifada.

Recently, Israel’s Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, ordered the deployment of the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system, bringing hope to some Israelis that if the rocket war with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other terror groups in Gaza escalates, at least southern Israeli communities will be offered a measure of protection. The IDF has stated, more than once, that the system has flaws, is limited in scope, and cannot protect against all incoming missiles. But, the Israeli government is not ready for a full scale war, and is looking for a way of stopping the current eroding of its deterrence in the south, while also trying to keep residents there from panicking.

Meanwhile, as the unrest in Arab nations continues, Israel faces some of its most serious challenges this year. Reports indicate that Syria may be using Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, along with operatives from Iran, to quell the recent uprising against President Bashar Assad’s government. In Assad’s attempt to divert attention away from the upheaval in his own country, he could lash out at Israel. The IDF remains on high alert in the north of the country, as well as, in the south.

The IDF is currently preparing and training for the possibility of 600 rockets a day being launched by Hezbollah, aimed at Israel’s northern communities. Hezbollah has known to be armed with up to 50,000 rockets in its stockpile, including Iranian-made long-range missiles and Syrian Scuds, all capable of penetrating deep into the heart of Israel. Reports indicate that Iran provides $1 billion in annual military aid to Hezbollah.

Israel has other problems that could affect the security of the Jewish state. Taking advantage of instability in the region, Iran has been trying to transport massive weapons to Israel’s enemies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria by land, sea and air. Israel’s recent interception of the Victoria ship; Turkey’s interception of two arms-laden planes; and convoys that have been intercepted originating from Sudan, are just some of the ways that intelligence-sharing capabilities between nations has helped to thwart Iran’s military ambitions. But, Israeli defense leaders admit that these interceptions have stopped only a fraction of the weapon transfers to Israel’s terrorist neighbors.

At the same time, Israel’s enemies are attempting to dig terror tunnels under the northern Gaza Strip which could be used to try and kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers, similar to events that triggered Israel’s 2006 conflict with Hamas. This, then, escalated into the Second Lebanon War with Hezbollah.

While the United States and other Western powers look at the current Middle East unrest as an opportunity for democratic reform, and greater freedoms for massive Arab populations, Israeli citizens wonder if new governments will be friendly or not towards the Jewish state.

For example, if Syria’s secular ruling elite were to fall, most analysts believe that Islamists would take over. In Egypt’s attempt to ratify its constitution, a call for early elections could result in the Moslem Brotherhood greatly increasing its political power within the new Egyptian government. Israelis see this as a slow eroding of good relations with Egypt, a threat to the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, and an opportunity for radical Islamic groups to have much greater influence within the Egyptian population.

Unrest in Jordan, and the possibility of a weakened Jordanian monarchy, could threaten Israel’s peace treaty with that country. A negative trend in Middle East regime change is already having its affect in Tunisia where the Islamization of that government is resulting in a deterioration of relations with the Jewish community. Israel is planning to help 25 Tunisian families immigrate to Israel during the next few weeks, hoping that others will follow. There are 1,500 Jews still living in Tunisia.

Israel is also weary of attempts by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to try and bring reconciliation between his Fatah supporters and their arch rival, Hamas. Reconciliation, resulting in unity between these two groups, would give the Palestinian’s the support they need for international approval towards statehood. Their demand for a contiguous land mass, encompassing most of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and Gaza, would gain legitimacy if they could succeed in producing one unified government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Fatah-Hamas unity will bury the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.

Israel faces a diplomatic war unprecedented in the history of the Jewish state as the Palestinians are preparing to bring a resolution before the UN General Assembly in September which could hinder Israel’s ability to defend itself. The Palestinians are looking for international recognition of the right to establish the state of “Palestine” without the need of a peace treaty with Israel. Israel is concerned that the European Union (EU) will join over 170 countries that have already approved a Palestinian unilateral declaration. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has indicated the EU might consider such recognition.

In the meantime, the Palestinians have, successfully, delayed all direct negotiations with Israel. They are ignoring the U.S. as a peace power broker, and are intent on internationalizing the conflict. They are now looking for new “peace” partners who they can easily influence.

European states are showing greater hostility in their opinions and policies towards Israel. This is in addition to a rapidly expanding Moslem European population. Anti-Israel bias in European media outlets and negative reporting by human rights organizations has resulted in increased anti-Semitism and anti-Israel hatred throughout Europe. These trends are having a negative effect on Israel’s relations with international leaders. This is worrying to Israeli leaders who are losing favor in the global arena. Israel faces greater isolation among the nations, worldwide.

What’s clear, today, is that Israel is fighting an upward battle on several fronts. Despite unprecedented military assistance from the U.S. Administration, President Barack Obama’s diplomatic help to Israel remains uncertain. While American concern for maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) still remains a high priority for the Pentagon and the White House, Israel’s QME is currently being threatened by Russia’s decision to sell and soon deliver anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria. These missiles could end up in Hezbollah’s hands which would give the terrorist regime an advantage at sea over Israel’s sophisticated naval armaments.

Meanwhile, if the Palestinians do unite, and are diplomatically successful at the UN, this could result in collective measurements taken by UN states against Israel. A strong UN resolution could further erode Israel’s support among the nations.

The Israeli government’s formidable challenge is to guarantee safety for Israeli citizens despite the new terror war against the Jewish State. Netanyahu hopes that Israel can remain stable in a tumultuous neighborhood of regional chaos. The IDF will continue to strive for military superiority over Israel’s enemies despite massive arms sales and deliveries that threaten to tip the balance of power in the Middle East. And, Israelis of all ages and professions will fight for diplomatic recognition within the global community.

The nation’s quest for peace and security remains its greatest challenge and its greatest hope for the future.

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) PRAY THAT THE TUMULT IN THE NATIONS WILL BE CALMED BY GOD’S PRESENCE: Psalm 74:23 (the voice of God's enemies); Psalm Chapter 83 (the crafty counsel of the nations); Psalm 65:5-13 (God’s abundant provision); Psalm Chapter 110 (the wonderful works of the Lord where He makes His enemies His footstool; and, where He removes the leaders of many countries).

(2)PRAY FOR THE FAMILIES OF ITIMAR AS THEY GRIEVE, AND FOR THE FAMILIES WHO HAVE LOVED ONES THAT WERE KILLED OR INJURED IN THE JERUSALEM BUS BOMBING: Psalm 57:1-3 (for God's mercy over the land); Psalm 58:11 (that the Lord will reward the righteous and judge the wicked).

(3) PRAY THAT GAZA TERRORISTS WILL BE UPROOTED FROM THEIR POSITIONS AND WILL NO LONGER BE ABLE TO LAUNCH MISSILES AGAINST ISRAEL. PRAY FOR THE ROCKET AND MORTAR FIRE TO CEASE IMMEDIATELY. PRAY THAT NO WEAPONS FORMED AGAINST ISRAEL WILL PROSPER. PRAY FOR THE PEOPLE IN ISRAEL'S SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES TO NOT PANIC OR ENTER INTO FEAR. DECLARE PSALM CHAPTER 91 OVER ISRAEL.

(4) PROCLAMATION GOD’S BLESSINGS UPON HIS PEOPLE: Genesis 22:17-18. PRAY THAT THOSE WHO ARE DISOBEDIENT AND TRUST IN THE ABUNDANCE OF THEIR OWN RICHES SHALL RECEIVE THEIR JUST REWARD: Psalm 52:1-9. ACKNOWLEDGE, WITH PRAISE, ALL HE HAS DONE FOR HIS PEOPLE, ISRAEL.

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XXXIV

Jerusalem, Israel

PEACE, PEACE, WHERE THERE IS NO PEACE

News events change suddenly in the Middle East, but what doesn’t change is the quest for peace. In 2011, peace between Israel and the Palestinians seems as elusive as ever.

As the sluggish peace process bumps along, the political climate of the country suggests that the Israeli public is tired of giving into the Palestinians and receiving nothing in return. In January, 350 prominent rabbis in Israel signed a petition asking Netanyahu not to make additional diplomatic and territorial concessions in order to get the Palestinians to return to direct talks.

For many years now, the Palestinians have reiterated their red lines, without deviating from their stated policy. They have demanded a complete Israeli land withdrawal to pre-1967 borders; the establishment of their own independent state with Jerusalem as their capital; and the right of return to Israel for millions of so-called Palestinian “refugees”.

While the Palestinians have stuck to their demands the same cannot be said of Israel. The vision of a Greater Israel (from the Nile River to the Euphrates), embraced by biblical Zionists during Israel’s first years as a modern state, has vanished. Now, the hope to remain on all the land from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River is vanishing, as well. Former leaders of Israel’s previous governments have been willing to relent to global pressure and give up land for peace. It’s been the Palestinians who have said, “No”, even when the Israeli’s went beyond their own red lines.

During negotiations between former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, resulting in the signing of the Camp David Accords in September 1978, Begin refused to put the status of Jerusalem on the peace bargaining table.

Yet, at Camp David in the year 2000, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak agreed to a division of Jerusalem. At the time, 600,000 Israelis protested, forming a human chain around the Old City, expressing their anger with Barak’s offer. It was former Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat who refused that deal.

Then, in September 2000, the Palestinians started the second Intifada (uprising), launching suicide bombings, blowing up buses and restaurants, killing over 1,000 Israelis and injuring more than 6,000 during the next several years.

In August 2005, former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon enacted the Gaza Disengagement Plan, adopted by the Israeli government. The unilateral withdrawal displaced all Israeli citizens living in the Gaza Strip, as well as those living in four settlements in the northern West Bank (Judea and Samaria). After the Gaza withdrawal, the Hamas terrorist group filled the vacuum. Today, they govern Gaza where no Jews live anymore.

In 2008, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert offered Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas another generous deal, which included giving up 93-97% of the West Bank to the Palestinians, as well as additional land swaps. Jerusalem would be divided and under no sovereignty, but with oversight by several states. Abbas turned Olmert down.

There’s a familiar saying in Israel that “the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Those reading this article, surprised by Israel’s concessions over biblical land, may be thanking God for those missed opportunities.

Netanyahu has inherited a peace process that started in 1977. After former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Arafat signed the Oslo Accords in 1993, for a period of seven years it seemed like there might be an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu, during his first term as Prime Minister, signed the Hebron Protocol in 1997 and the Wye River Memorandum in 1998, hoping to sustain a lasting peace.

The accords, protocol, and memorandum failed to produce positive results. The world has been grasping for a continuation of the process of peace, in lieu of peace itself, if only to keep another war from igniting in the Middle East.

Israel is about to celebrate its 63rd year of independence. Its leaders are still hoping the Palestinians, along with the global community, will recognize Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people. Netanyahu is demanding that the signing of any peace treaty will constitute the final end of the conflict. So far, Abbas and his negotiators have refused to accept Israel as the Jewish homeland, living side by side Palestinians in their own state. The PLO and Hamas Charters; Palestinian textbooks; statements in Arabic by Palestinian leaders; television broadcasts; and Palestinian maps acknowledge the existence of a Palestinian state, but no Jewish state.

Over 10,900 rockets and mortars have been launched against Israel by Palestinian militants since 2000, according to Hamas statistics; 68% of these attacks occurred after Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005. Despite Operation Cast Lead (Israel’s war with Hamas in 2008-2009), rockets are still being fired on the Jewish State today by terrorist groups in Gaza.

Concerned that a further withdrawal from the West Bank will result in rockets launched by Palestinians into Israel’s major population centers, including Ben Gurion airport, Netanyahu has insisted on guaranteed security measures. While he has agreed to a de-militarized Palestinian state, he has been adamant that it must include IDF forces on the eastern border. This is to prevent terrorist infiltration from the Jordan Valley. Already, Israel is alarmed by global jihad terrorists reportedly establishing a presence on the Jordanian side of the Dead Sea that could launch attacks against hotels on the Israeli side.

As Palestinian and Israeli negotiators hold to their positions on borders, security, Jerusalem, and refugees, the Netanyahu government is not willing to finalize a peace deal without all issues being agreed upon together. The stalemate continues.

Yet, the Palestinians, in an effort to pressure Israel, have sought international recognition. More than 170 countries have approved the formation of a Palestinian state, encouraging unilateral steps towards independence. Israel, and for the present time the United States, sees these steps as unproductive and a threat to peace in the Middle East.

However, America, along with many countries, has upgraded the diplomatic status of the Palestinians, allowing them to fly their flag in state capitols. In addition, millions of dollars have poured into Palestinian coffers to encourage state building The Palestinian Authority is the largest recipient of foreign aid in the world, reportedly receiving $1.2 billion in 2009, and $1.8 billion in 2010.

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad plans to officially declare statehood this year. The Palestinians would like to seal that declaration with international recognition from the Quartet (the U.S., U.N., E.U., and Russia), along with an official UN Security Council resolution affirming their independence.

Some Israeli experts believe U.S. President Barack Obama will adapt a new peace plan, based on the Clinton Parameters (introduced in 2000), that would be similar to Ehud Barak’s offer to Arafat at that time. Others think that Obama will adapt the Arab Peace Initiative, with the urging of the U.S. State Department. Forcing Israel to accept either plan would jeopardize its security in today’s volatile environment; and, in the case of the Arab Initiative would not allow for defensible borders.

In a December 2010 speech at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlined America’s new peace demands. She declared the U.S. would “push the parties to lay out their positions on the core issues without delay and with real specificity.” She encouraged the Palestinians in their efforts at state-building, and pledged another $150 million in direct assistance. She stated that the U.S. and the world could not impose a solution on the two parties. Despite her words, the pushing and prodding, the constant pressure and forced one-on-one diplomacy, proves that America is determined to broker a final peace deal, dragging the Israelis and Palestinians along with them.

As the major peacemaker in the Middle East, the Obama Administration may fear that peace is slipping out of U.S. hands down a slippery slope into the hands of other global players. The Palestinians welcome this, and with Hamas, remain committed to the elimination of Jewish sovereignty in the Holy Land.

Israel continues to lose international support, while the Palestinians gain global legitimacy. Eventually, it will only be divine intervention that keeps Israel settled in the Promised Land, and keeps the Holy City in Jewish hands.

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) Declare, according to Deuteronomy 4:4-8, that Israeli citizens would obey God’s commandments and not succumb to pressure from the nations or to fear of man. Pray that they would hold fast to the Lord, and steward the land He has given them as an eternal covenant.

(2) Intercede for Israel’s government to receive great favor from the Lord when dealing with international leaders. Proclaim, by faith, that Israeli leaders will humble themselves before the Lord, and cry out to Him for their nation, according to 2 Chronicles 7:14-15.

(3) Pray for the Israeli people to not grow weary in desiring peace and security. Pray for renewed strength for those who make critical decisions for the nation, according to Isaiah 40:29-31.

(4) Pray for Palestinian leaders to not contend with God's plans for the Jewish people lest He contend with them. Declare Psalm 35:1 and Psalm 35:23-25 on Israel's behalf. Pray that the Palestinian Authority will walk in righteousness and integrity, and its leaders in wisdom, according to Psalm 2:10-12.