Jerusalem, Israel
LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS TO END THE CURRENT MIDDLE EAST WAR
COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS
U.S. senior officials are calling for a no-fly zone in
Syria. The Europeans say they may begin funding and arming the Sunni rebels to
help in the fight against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces. Russia is
ignoring protests by America and Israel in its quest to deliver S-300 advanced
weapons systems to the Syrian regime. And, the war in Syria is spilling over
into Lebanon as Sunni rebels attack Hezbollah strongholds.
These are some of the recent headlines in the media. But, in
reality, the White House continues to sit passively while the bloody war in
Syria rages on. Britain and France talk about the possibility of providing a small
amount of arms to the Sunni rebels in Syria, which at this moment won’t do much
to help them win the war. Though Russia insists on delivering the advanced
weapons to Syria they actually haven’t done so yet. And, the Sunnis are calling on jihadists (especially in
Egypt) to wage war against Shiite Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, the bloody battle over Syria continues to
escalate with more than 80,000 people dead and at least 1.5 million displaced
throughout the Middle East.
What began as demonstrations by the Syrian people against
their own government has now turned into a raging fight over who will control
the land of Syria – the Shiites or the Sunnis.
Israel does not want to get involved in this war as leaders
in Jerusalem admit that they see both the Shiites and the Sunnis as enemies of
the Jewish State. But, Israel will also not allow the balance of power to tip
in the region. Israeli defense officials have warned Russian leaders that if
they deliver the S-300 weapons to Syria it will be a “game changer”. Israeli officials believe that these weapons
getting into the hands of Assad, the Sunni rebels, or Hezbollah, would hurt
Israel’s ability to defend itself. Therefore, we can expect a pre-emptive
strike by Israel on Syrian territory to destroy these weapons if they are
delivered to the Assad regime in the future.
Jonathon Spyer is a Senior Research Fellow at the IDC
(Inter-Disciplinary Center) in Herzliya. He recently spoke at the Christian
Friends of Israel Jerusalem conference. He explained how the current upheavals taking
place in the Middle East will affect Israel. “Syria is going to be of
historical importance for Israel in the period opening up,” according to Spyer.
One of the greatest concerns for Israeli leaders is whether
Iran will be strengthened by the war in Syria if the Shiites gain ground over
the Sunnis. Iran has defined itself as
the new sunrise power that operates in the name of Islam and the Moslem peoples
of the region, but the Iranians have a problem in that they are not Arabs, they
are Persians. They need an issue to stir the Arab streets to support Iran’s
ambitions, and that issue is Israel.
“How do we, as Israelis and as Jews, come into this
picture? After all, we have no
geo-political, no geographic conflict with the Iranians,” says Spyer. “We are
on one side of the region. They are on the other side of the region. We also
have no historical account with the Iranians.”
Though Israel has no grievances with the Persian State, Iran’s
leaders want to see Israel destroyed. “The
Shiite bloc led by Iran remains by far the most able and active enemy facing
Israel,” claims Spyer.
There is great Moslem opposition – both Shiite and Sunni --
to the existence of Jewish sovereignty in Israel. The land, at one time, was
controlled by the Moslems and they see it as being “occupied” now by the Jews,
which for them is an intolerable situation.
But, the Iranians are not only interested in re-taking the
Holy Land; they also want to take over the oil rich area of the Persian Gulf.
For that reason, Arab Gulf countries are afraid of Iran’s expansionist dreams.
Sunni Arab monarchies are dealing with Shiite unrest in their cities with
threatens to overthrow their regimes.
While the Iranians continue to try and destabilize these Gulf States,
Israel is finding new friends among its neighbors. Though Israel has no
official public contact with some of the Gulf nations, there are unofficial
meetings taking place, and Israel has hinted that a new diplomatic office has
been established in one of these Arab countries.
At the same time, Iran is fervently trying to become a
nuclear state in the region, escalating the conflict in Syria, in order to
deflect its quest for nuclear capability. If Iran is able to build a nuclear
bomb or create nuclear weapons it will become a superpower in the Middle East.
Spyer sees this as problematic. He claims that a nuclear empowered
Iran would target Arab states and the Sunnis would be forced to submit to
Iranian control over their nations. This is why Iran is not just the greatest
threat, today, to Israel alone.
In the conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites in Syria,
Spyer believes the U.S. and the west should be strongly backing the Sunni
rebels.
Currently, the Assad regime is supported by Iran, Hezbollah,
and Iraq with weapons, money, and soldiers who are fighting for Assad to
maintain control over Syria.
The Sunnis are less organized. The rebels are increasingly
financed by Sunni Moslem powers in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and
Turkey. Money and support coming from these nations is allowing the Sunni
rebels to remain on the battlefield. But,
they are not winning the war.
U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration have been
reluctant to take sides in the battle over Syria. The fact that the United
States has chosen to stay out of the war is a choice not well-received around
the globe.
Spyer alluded to this in his speech. “This U.S.
Administration, in my estimation, has not well-understood how things work in
the Middle East, and how politics and power are wielded here.” Spyer talked about U.S. failure to back
long-standing and faithful allies in the region, such as former Tunisian
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
The argument that these were dictators who suppressed their
people is valid, but how Obama dealt with them has been unnerving. When they
got into trouble, Spyer explained, America, “their patron of long-standing, was
seen to quickly discard them; to quickly throw them to the wolves.” He added, “From a moral or ethical level this
may well not be advisory behavior; from a political level this is stupid
behavior.”
Spyer believes that Middle East countries will be less
likely to trust America’s intentions in the future when U.S. leaders try to
engage in new friendships and alliances in the region.
If America had gotten involved with the Syrian opposition in
the beginning of the revolt in Syria, it would have prevented the current
situation, according to Spyer’s point of view. “As a result of the western
failure to back the rebellion in Syria over the last two years, this is now
dominated by Sunni Islamist forces. They have filled the vacuum left by the
lack of western support.” (Spyer is talking about radicals such as the Moslem
Brotherhood, the Salafists, Al Qaeda and jihadist groups that have joined in
the Syrian rebellion against Assad’s regime).
“I think that it is
not quite too late, and it is of crucial importance to the west and Israel and
to all of us, that the Iranian side not be allowed a victory in the Syrian civil
war. It is for this reason, even though I am not naïve at all about some of
those people in the Syrian rebellion, that I am in support of greater western
support for the rebels.”
The Obama Administration and western governments have to
change their complacent foreign policies immediately in order to stop Iran’s
ambition to become the dominant power in the region. To guarantee that Iran and
its allies do not win an historic and strategic victory in Syria; and to assure
that Iran does not become a nuclear superpower; and to make sure that Arab Gulf
monarchies are protected and not forced into submission by a triumphant Iran; there
must be more active involvement in the region led by a coalition of western
forces.
The U.S. and Europe, along with Gulf Arab states, must come
through on their promises. Israel will
do everything it can, behind the scenes, and if necessary, pre-emptively, to
keep this raging Middle East conflict from reaching the home front of the
Jewish State. But, other world leaders need to keep it from igniting the whole
Middle East.
The eternal God is your refuge;
And underneath are the everlasting arms;
He will thrust out the enemy from before you;
And will say, ‘Destroy!’
And underneath are the everlasting arms;
He will thrust out the enemy from before you;
And will say, ‘Destroy!’
Deuteronomy 33:27