Thursday, July 16, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XIV

Jerusalem, Israel

U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS: FRICTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

A recent poll indicates Israel is one of the least peaceful countries in the world. Yet, in this land of chaos and conflict, religious Jews pray three times a day for peace. But, peace has been the illusive dream. Americans and Israelis, alike, hope that this will be the year when Israeli-Palestinian clashes will end, and Iran will back down from its nuclear pursuit.

Since January 2009, American foreign policy has been reshaped by U.S. President Barak Obama. Since February 2009, Israeli foreign policy has taken on a new dimension under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Obama with his liberal leanings to the left of the political spectrum, and Netanyahu with his conservative leanings to the right, have found compromise to be difficult on Middle East issues. Friction between both administrations is threatening the strategic relationship between the two democratic allies.

Israel and the U.S. will survive this current chapter in political history, but not without constant American pressure applied to Israel, to offer concessions not only to the Palestinians, but to moderate Arab states, as well. Obama is seeking a quick end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a comprehensive regional agreement that he hopes will move Arab states closer towards peace with Israel.

THE ROAD MAP – PAST AND PRESENT

Talks have centered, recently, on revamping the Road Map for Peace, an agreement proposed by the Quartet (U.S., U.N., EU, and Russia), and outlined by former American President George W. Bush in his June 2002 speech. At that time, Bush called for an independent Palestinian state, proposing that Palestinians could live side by side with Israel in peace. The vision was to protect Israel’s security while offering the Palestinians a viable democratic state.

Three phases were spelled out. A key demand was an end to Palestinian violence, along with the expectation of Palestinian political and military reform. Also agreed upon was an Israeli withdrawal from settlements, as well as a freeze on settlement expansion. The phases offered Palestinians economic recovery, and encouraged Arab cultural and trade links with Israel.
Phase 3 proposed the hosting of an international peace conference. Following that, a permanent final status agreement would deal with an end to the conflict; an agreement on borders; and clarification regarding the fate of Jerusalem, refugees and settlements.

While Israel’s cabinet approved the plan, they attached 14 reservations to the document. Among Israel’s reservations was any linkage to the Palestinian track with other tracks. Arab peace deals (such as with Syria or Lebanon) would be considered separately. Israel also demanded that declared references be made to Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, and the waiver of any right of return for Palestinian refugees to the state of Israel. In the reservations, Israel acquiesced to certain aspects of Palestinian sovereignty, but, insisted on a de-militarized Palestinian state with only police and internal security forces allowed.

A series of violent Palestinian attacks on Israelis in 2003 derailed the Road Map. In 2006, Hamas took over the Gaza Strip, which outdated the internationally recognized agreement.

Because Israeli leaders and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have agreed to follow the Road Map, it is expected to be revised in the coming year. Already, in Netanyahu’s Bar-Ilan speech on June 14, 2009, he made references to how the peace process could move forward, signaling Israel’s continued approval of the Road Map. In his Bar-Ilan address, he spelled out many of the Road Map details, including Israel’s reservations.

AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

To implement the revised Road Map, and include Obama’s vision for a comprehensive Middle East peace, Israel has tacitly agreed to attend another international conference. Israeli leaders have stated that they will need to know the parameters of such a conference, and will insist that Iran and Hezbollah are not included. In the past, international conferences have tended to hurt Israel politically, with diplomats consistently pushing a “land for peace” formula.

One of the reasons the U.S. is encouraging the conference now is to advance the Obama Administration’s agenda. If Russia hosts the conference, which is likely, it will be a way of getting Russian leaders involved more directly in the Middle East, with America hoping they will join a future U.S. led coalition against Iran.

DISPUTE OVER SETTLEMENTS

Several high level Israeli government officials have complained privately and publicly that the settlement issue has been blown out of proportion by the Obama Administration. Increased pressure on Israel to freeze all settlement construction, including “natural growth”, has been rejected by a majority of Israelis and by almost all Israeli political parties. Many think that Obama has overplayed his hand, being driven by an overeager staff bent on humiliating Netanyahu. Meanwhile, outspoken Democrats in Congress and liberal American Jewish leaders have agreed with Obama, which is not helping Israel’s position.

Obama’s worldview of “two states, a Jewish State of Israel and an independent Palestine, in the historic homeland of both peoples”, along with his constant pressure on Israel regarding the settlement issue, has caused Israelis to question his real intentions. Mistrust of Obama can be seen in recent polls that suggest only 6% of Jewish Israelis consider the views of his administration to be pro-Israel. And, 50% consider the policies of his administration to be more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israeli.

A compromise is being worked out so that both Obama and Netanyahu can say they achieved a political victory on the settlement issue. The U.S. may agree to Israel finishing construction on 2,000-2,500 housing units. Israel may allow a complete settlement freeze for a short period of time during which Arab states would be given the opportunity to normalize ties with Israel.

Settlers have already complained that, since November 2008, there have been no new building permits approved for settlement construction. Ironically, a freeze on settlements takes jobs away from West Bank Palestinians. More than 12,000 Palestinians are employed by both Jewish and Arab contractors who are building new homes. Most Palestinian workers are more concerned with putting food on the table for their families than protesting their political rights to settlement land.

One of Israel’s red lines regarding the settlement issue has to do with construction in Jerusalem, especially East Jerusalem. Israel has said Jerusalem is off-limits until final status negotiations. New construction in Har Homa, a Jerusalem neighborhood that is partially beyond the Green Line, has resulted in international protest. But, Israeli leaders say that Har Homa is non-negotiable.

Settlements have been around for more than 40 years. The U.S., under previous American presidents, agreed verbally with Israel to a quiet settlement formula, whereby Israel promised not to diminish the territory of a future Palestinian state.

Israel is concerned that the Obama Administration is not willing to consider these verbal agreements or a written letter by George W. Bush to former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in June 2004. That letter outlined the changing nature of the settlements and facts on the ground that indicated Israel could not be expected to completely withdraw to the 1967 borders in a future peace agreement with the Palestinians.

It’s expected that major settlements like Gush Etzion, Ariel, and Maale Adumim will continue to try and build for natural growth despite U.S. objections. Israeli officials are hoping that the Obama Administration will agree to put the settlement issue on the back burner, and instead pursue a much more serious issue –Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.

THE IRANIAN ISSUE

Most Westerners understand that Iran is the greatest threat to the world today. If Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons, Middle East experts say it will prompt an arms race in the region that will undermine peace throughout the world.

Yet, President Obama has not changed his mind in pursuing a diplomatic exchange with Iranian leaders despite a revolution taking place inside Iran between the elites in power. Israelis are aware that reform in Iran will not change the fact that the ruling religious clerics, who control Iran’s power, will continue to pursue a nuclear Iran.

Israeli leaders have urged Obama not to delay his diplomatic talks with Iran, strongly suggesting he end the talks within a given time frame of several months. Israeli officials think that diplomacy will ultimately fail, and the next option will be stiffer U.N. sanctions followed by possible military force.

Israel’s air force has been training for a long-term mission with reports indicating that, if necessary, Israel may launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran to prevent the country from “going nuclear”.

Meanwhile, Israelis are hoping for a peace process that allows the Jewish State to confront the Iranian problem, while refraining from giving in on dangerous concessions to the Palestinians. Whether this balance in diplomacy will be acceptable to the U.S. or not is unclear. What is clear is that the two allies have been at odds on how to solve both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian issue, and this friction may continue until new governments emerge in both nations.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XIII

Jerusalem, Israel

OFF-THE-RECORD BRIEFING

On June 30, journalists and diplomats were briefed at a think tank in Jerusalem. A high level Israeli government official spoke candidly about Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and other issues of concern in the Middle East. Here are some of the insights this Israeli cabinet member shared so you can be praying into these matters:

(1) The current regime in Iran is not going to survive a long time. We will witness an internal revolution in Iran. President Obama’s recent comment about the Iranian regime was important to encourage the pragmatists, but it can’t stand alone. More is needed. Impose sanctions now!


(2) If you look at the Iranian threat, the idea of allowing them nuclear capability will be a nightmare. They will then be able to export their ideology, and, fulfill their global aspirations of importing Islam to defeat the West.


(3) Israel has empowered, energized, and inspired jihadists. Israel's withdrawals (from Lebanon in 2000 and the Gaza Strip in 2005) were perceived as a victory for Jihadism. Territorial concessions today will be a source of inspiration to jihadists tomorrow – another victory.


(4) How can anyone expect a peace agreement to be implemented with the Palestinians when Palestinian children are learning how to wear explosive belts? There needs to be an educational curriculum; certain projects are needed to encourage Palestinians to go through reform. They need to understand that the culture of Hamas is a self-destructive culture.


(5) Evacuating settlements is not the solution to ending the conflict. Israeli Arabs are already living all over Israel in peace. Why has the settlement issue become the most important issue? Israel is worried that the current U.S. Administration has, so far, ignored agreements and understandings reached with previous administrations. Israel hopes to find a way to solve this marginal issue in order to pave the way for more significant issues.


PRAYER FOR IRAN

As the people of Iran rise up in demand for a righteous and just government, pray:

• that the current Iranian government will stop crushing their citizens and will allow political reform.

• for complete regime change (including a change in the religious counsel behind the presidency).

• for a regime that ceases from terrorism.

• for a regime that stops trying to build a nuclear bomb.

• for a regime that will not look to destroy Israel.

Pray for the people of Iran, according to Daniel 6:25-28. Ask God to deal with the Persian princes and rulers over Iran that have blocked Iranians from hearing clearly from the Lord. (Daniel 10:13; Daniel 10:20).



THE SETTLEMENT ISSUE

The international community, especially the U.S., is trying to dictate ownership concerning the land of Israel. If they can get Israel to freeze settlement construction, including for natural growth, even for a short period of time, they will have succeeded in allowing the Palestinians to claim key parts of Israel as their territory. Then, it is only a matter of time before Israel will find itself without defensible borders, moving masses of people out of the biblical heartland – Judea and Samaria.

Proclaim blessings on the tribes of Israel, decreeing their immediate return to the Promised Land. Pray that they dwell in the land of their forefathers and cultivate faithfulness. (Deuteronomy 33:28-29; Deuteronomy 34:1-4).


• Declare the covenant promises of God to the Jewish people and the nation of Israel: Genesis 13:17; Genesis 15:18; Genesis 17:19; Genesis 28:3-4; Genesis 28:13; Joshua Chapter 15; Romans 11:29; Leviticus 26:44-45; Ezekiel 36:12; Jeremiah 31:5; Ezekiel 5:5.


Continue to pray for meetings between Israeli and U.S. leaders over the settlement issue:

• that U.S. President Barak Obama, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and U.S. Peace Envoy George Mitchell will cease their demands of Israel in regard to a settlement freeze.


• that they will understand God’s covenant with the Jewish people and align their foreign policy initiatives with God’s Word.

PALESTINIAN EDUCATIONAL REFORM


Pray that Palestinian school children will begin to learn the truth about the Jewish people and their covenant right to the land of Israel. Pray that Palestinian parents will also learn the truth, and teach their children the ways of the Lord, according to Proverbs 22:6.

Monday, June 15, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XII

Jerusalem, Israel

THE DANGERS OF A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE DEAL

Pro-Israel supporters have been focused on the new relationship between U.S. President Barak Obama, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The international community has been waiting for a new Middle East peace initiative to come forth from the Obama Administration that will set the agenda for peace negotiations in the region over the next several years.

Obama’s June 4 appearance in Cairo, Egypt is slated to begin an unprecedented effort by the U.S. to reach out to the Moslem world, displaying America’s interest in partnership with moderate Arab states. Middle East analysts wonder if Obama will begin unveiling his Middle East plan during talks in Cairo. Some officials in Jerusalem are concerned that Obama’s new initiative might attempt to push Israel into concessions that could threaten the stability and security of the Jewish State.

Obama, and U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, have already placed demands on the Israeli government. Concentrating on Israel’s settlement policy, they have voiced their expectations that Israel immediately freeze all settlement construction in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) including allowance for “natural growth”. So far, the Netanyahu government has only agreed to dismantle 26 illegal settlement outposts, while defending Israel’s right to continue with natural growth in existing settlements. The disagreements between the U.S. and Israel have officially begun.

Similar to the Bush Administration’s approach, both the White House and State Department are also pushing for Israel to accept a two-state solution. This concept was already a part of the foreign policy initiative of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni. But, Netanyahu has not publicly agreed to a two-state solution. First, he is demanding that the Palestinians accept Israel as the state for the Jewish people. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has refused to comply. So far, both Netanyahu and Abbas have not met with each other and probably won’t until this issue is resolved.

In order to move Middle East peace negotiations forward, past the stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians, the Obama Administration is taking a new approach... that is, the idea of a comprehensive peace deal in the region that would include Arab states in the process. Looking seriously at the Arab Peace Initiative, Obama is trying to take that formula and work it into a new U.S. foreign policy initiative that would be palatable to both Israel and moderate Arab regimes. Some Israeli leaders have shown interest in the Arab Initiative, despite the fact that it would not allow Israel to have defensible borders. And, it would require more than 100,000 Israelis to move out of the West Bank to other parts of Israel at a cost of approximately $30 billion. The Arab Initiative also demands that Israel divide Jerusalem, and that the Jewish State allow some Palestinian “refugees” to return to Israel rather than to a new Palestinian State.

There are consequences that Israel faces if Obama decides to push for a comprehensive peace deal that goes beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. One of the ways Israel will be required to enter into peace agreements with other Arab states in the region, will be to strike a deal with Syria, which will mean a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. This key issue has hardly been on the radar screen of the international media, but is one of the most pressing demands behind the scenes that Israeli leaders are currently faced with. Netanyahu has already said he is willing to sit down with Syria’s President Bashar Assad and talk about peace without pre-conditions. He’s considering this option, despite Syria’s refusal to comply with any of the requests of the international community that would bring Syria out of the radical Islamic axis into an improved relationship with moderate Arab nations and the Western world.

In a recent press conference in Jerusalem, Major General (res.) Giora Eiland, former Chairman of the National Security Council, gave his assessment regarding Israel’s indirect talks with Syria during the Olmert government’s reign, and how Israel should conduct future negotiations on the Syrian track. He said that Israelis are expecting much more than what Syria can deliver. There are illusions, he claimed, about what Syria will do or not do in making peace with Israel. For example, Syria has no intention of pulling out of its strategic relationship with Iran, which therefore does not help Israel’s attempt to stop Iran from going nuclear. Also, Syria will not stop supplying arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. And, it is not in Syria’s interest to expel terrorist organizations from its soil.

During the time when current Defense Minister Ehud Barak held the position of Prime Minister of Israel, (1999-2001), experts in Israel’s military circles were asked if Israel could defend itself without the Golan Heights. “And, the answer that Ehud Barak gave, along with the military, was ‘No, Israel cannot defend itself without the Golan Heights,’ ” Eiland explained.

Today, Eiland asks how Israel can, therefore, enter into a peace agreement with Syria. At the press conference he alluded to the fact that the Olmert government, in holding indirect talks with Syria (through Turkish interlocutors), did not take into account many of the strategic threats to Israel’s security in the event of a Golan Heights withdrawal. According to Eiland, “Some political initiative began without any real discussion about the very basic consequences of such a solution.”

Eiland further explained that Israel needs the strategic Heights for a quick response to a Syrian threat of war. In the event of a pre-emptive strike against Israel by Syria, Israel would have to take control over Syrian air space within a very short period of time in order to win the war. This entails having air superiority. Without the Heights, Israel would be pre-occupied with first controlling Syrian ground forces on the Heights. Only then, would Israel’s air force be able to focus on obtaining air superiority. At that point, it could be too late for Israel.

Meanwhile, the main reason that the situation between Israel and Syria has been so calm over the past 35 years, in Eiland’s opinion, is because of Israel’s superior position on the Golan. This has provided an effective deterrence from Syrian aggression. In considering a withdrawal from the Golan, he stated, “If you give up such an advantage, you might encourage aggression against Israel rather than to decrease the possibility of a war.”

Acknowledging that Israel should try and find a way of reaching a peace agreement with Syria some day, Eiland insisted it should not be considered now. “To reach a solution which is a bad solution only because some people say it is achievable doesn’t mean we should do it...The peace agreement that is offered to us by the Syrians, by the international community, unfortunately by some of the previous Israeli leaders that did agree to such a concept, is a very poor solution.”

Eiland further stated that a future agreement would bring a very cold peace between Israel and Syria, and from an Israeli military point of view would put the Jewish State at too great a risk. Furthermore, there has not been a satisfactory alternative solution expressed by Israel’s military generals. “I don’t think in the past 10 years, any Israeli general reached a conclusion that Israel can defend itself without the Golan Heights.”

This writer asked Eiland how Israel could retreat from American expectations at this time. He responded that there has been little discussion with the Obama Administration on the Syrian issue until now. “Israel has to be strong enough in order to defend itself, by itself, against any enemies or any coalition of enemies. I don’t think there is a real professional answer to this, and maybe it has to be discussed between Israeli and American officials when the time comes. But, it is not going to be easy.”

While discussions are expected to continue regarding the Syrian track, Israel and the U.S. will be pre-occupied in the days to come with two major Middle East elections. On June 7, it is expected that Hezbollah will increase its political and military control over Lebanon after elections take place in that country. And, on June 12, the Iranians go to the polls to decide whether to re-elect their current Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or vote for a more moderate candidate.

What’s disconcerting to Israeli and U.S. officials is the fact that an Iranian-led Islamic regional bloc is emerging, threatening to tip the balance of power in the Middle East. This may be solidified after these two elections, resulting in a greater foothold of Shiite power in the region.

Syria is a supporter of Hezbollah, and a strategic partner of Iran, and can only gain in political strength from these two key elections. Without a peace agreement with Israel, Syria will continue to strengthen itself militarily for a future confrontation with the Jewish State.

Israel, while making peace overtures to Syria in order to appease America, will also prepare itself militarily for war with Syria, but from the advantage of overlooking Syrian military positions from the strategic Golan Heights.... currently, still in Israel’s hands.

"Son of man, I have made you a watchman for the house of Israel; therefore, hear a word from My mouth, and give them warning from Me.”
Ezekiel 3:17.

PRAYER POINTS:

• Pray according to Isaiah 9:6-7, that Israel would realize that its government rests upon the shoulders of the Prince of Peace. Of the increase of His government, and of peace, there will be no end. Upon the throne of David and over His kingdom, He will order it and establish it with judgment and justice forever. Proclaim God’s governmental authority over Israel and the nations!

• John 14:27 says, “Peace I leave with you, My peace I give to you; not as the world gives do I give to you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid.” Pray that the Israeli people will understand that what the Lord gives is not what the world gives. It is not ‘world peace’ that He gives to Israel. Pray that their hearts would trust in Him....their ‘Sar Shalom’.

• Pray, according to Psalm Chapter 2, for the nations who are raging against Israel, trying to plot a vain thing. The kings of the earth are setting themselves, and the rulers of the world are taking counsel together, to come against the Lord’s Anointed One. Pray that the nations will come into conformity with the plans of God; that they will kiss the Son lest He be angry; that they will submit to the authority of the Lord, especially in regard to His purposes for God’s covenant people....Israel.

There are several key dates in June that require concentrated prayer:

1. June 4:
U.S. President Barack Obama will be giving an important speech in Cairo, Egypt, reaching out to the Moslem world.

Pray that the words coming out of his mouth will be filled with God’s wisdom, not that of man. (See Numbers 22:35).

2. June 7:
Lebanon will hold its national elections on this date. The U.S. and Israel, along with European nations, are concerned that Hezbollah will gain political control over the government, and expand its military influence in the nation. This would give the Shiites more control over the Middle East, helping Iran in its goal of regional hegemony.

Thank the Lord that Lebanon will be a blessing to Israel and the rest of the world, with a Godly government in place, not yielding to the ways of the enemy. (See Deuteronomy 11:24-25; Isaiah 2:12-19; Psalm 29:5-6; Isaiah 29:17; Isaiah 60:13).

3. June 12:
Iran will hold its national elections on this date. Many are hoping that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is voted out of office, and that a more moderate candidate takes his place, However, this does not mean that Iranian leaders will change their mind or ambitions about building a nuclear bomb. For this to happen, there would have to be a change in the Iranian religious leadership of clerics that are the power base behind the presidency.

Pray that the Iranian people will vote with wisdom and discernment for the best candidate. Pray that the international community will not be fooled when assessing Iranian goals after the election. Pray that God will bring confusion and chaos into the halls of power in Iran and change the course of events, so that Iran will not be allowed to “go nuclear”. Pray that all calls for Israel’s destruction will be null and void, and that the Lord will protect His covenant people from any aggressive moves by the Iranian government towards Israel. (See Proverbs 1:33; Isaiah 60:14,18).

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XI

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL CHANGES GOVERNMENTS AND STRATEGIES TOWARDS PEACE

Israel’s 32nd government was sworn in this evening, Tuesday, March 31, 2009. A priority in the agenda of new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be the complex issues associated with arms smuggling from Sudan and other rogue states into Gaza. This non-stop smuggling has helped to re-build the weapons arsenal of Hamas since the Gaza War ended in January 2009.

Israel’s continued crackdown on arms smugglers will be only one of the issues that Netanyahu will be confronted with in his new job. He will also have to deal with a shaky unofficial temporary cease-fire with Hamas, along with the continued pressure on Israel’s government to release terrorists with blood on their hands in a prisoner swap that could bring home Israel’s P.O.W. Corporal Gilad Shalit.

After recent negotiations for Shalit’s release failed, under the direction of the Olmert government, Israel decided to limit the benefits that Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails will receive in the future. Israeli analysts predict that if this plan goes into effect it will backfire on Israel because international human rights advocates can be expected to blame Israel for inhumane treatment of prisoners. This is predicted to occur despite the fact that Hamas is not adhering to international human rights laws regarding Shalit, who is being held in a secret hideaway in Gaza, not able to connect with his parents or the Red Cross.

Speaking at a recent briefing for diplomats and journalists at the Jerusalem Center For Public Affairs (JCPA), Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yair Naveh, former Commander of the IDF Central Command and Gaza Division, talked about the goals of Fatah and Hamas, including Iran’s influence on these groups and others in the Middle East region. One of Naveh’s main jobs in the IDF has been to expertly identify terrorist activities within the Jewish State and stop terrorism on the home front.

What the Palestinians and the Global Community expect from Israel

In 2000, Naveh met privately with Brigadier General Saib Ajez of the Palestinian armed forces. He learned that the Palestinians do not see their home as Gaza, but instead want to occupy towns and cities in Israel, such as Yavne, Ashkelon, Hadera, and Tel Aviv. Their long range perspective is much deeper than the kind of peace process Netanyahu is expected to try and navigate with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Naveh believes that Israelis are accustomed to a Western worldview where life is highly valued, but the Palestinians are concerned with obtaining land. “For the Palestinians... land is associated with respect, dignity and honor,” he said.

It is a known fact within the international community that Hamas does not want to recognize Israel, stop violence against civilians, and adhere to previously signed agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA). But, few international leaders are willing to accept what Fatah officials within the government of Abbas actually claim. Earlier this month, in reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah, Muhammad Dahlan, former PA Security Commander, said Hamas did not need to recognize Israel’s right to exist because Fatah has never done that.

Fatah wants a democratic state of Palestine instead of recognizing the Jewish state of Israel. The Palestinian group had hoped years ago that the Arab populations both in Gaza and in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would double, and that, demographically, Israel would cease to have a Jewish majority within its borders. Then, Israel built the infamous security fence which created a separation between the Palestinians and the Israelis. This allowed Israel time to expand Jewish communities on Israel’s side of the fence.

This was a major factor that caused Abbas to push for a two-state solution several years ago. This two-state concept was first mentioned in the global arena during a speech by former U.S. President George W. Bush before the U.N. General Assembly on November 10, 2001. He said, “We are working toward the day when two states – Israel and Palestine – live peacefully together within secure and recognized borders as called for by the Security Council resolutions. We will do all in our power to bring both parties back into negotiations. But, peace will only come when all have sworn off forever incitement, violence, and terror.”

Despite the Road Map, which called for incitement, violence, and terror to stop, the Palestinians continued their war against Israel. Bush, however, continued to push for a two-state solution throughout the rest of his presidency, and today, it has become the slogan for the global community when trying to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Dan Dyker, a Senior Foreign Policy Analyst at the JCPA, told this writer that current U.S. President Barack Obama is clearly advancing a two-state solution. “That has become the brand in the United States. And, Israel has bought into that brand.” But, Dyker claims that Netanyahu will take a different approach with the Palestinians, and will promote the concept of an “economic peace” during future peace negotiations.

The Power of Hamas

Meanwhile, General Naveh told journalists and diplomats at the JCPA briefing that Hamas is a religious and political organization that Israel helped to establish over 20 years ago when the Jewish state wanted to create an alternative to Fatah. Now, Israeli leaders are beginning to understand that whether they are dealing with Fatah or Hamas, the goals are much more similar than they originally thought.

According to Naveh, a main goal of Hamas is that “there will be no sovereign political reality in the Middle East except the Palestinians and Hamas.” Hamas has copied the successes of Hezbollah in Lebanon by providing help to poor Gazans through social welfare programs including hot meals in schools; improved education; summer camps for children; transportation; and housing (especially after Israel’s Defense Forces demolish the houses of terrorists). As a result, Hamas has greatly increased its popularity among the Palestinians.

The political view that Hamas leaders carry is that once they turn Gaza into a Hamas state they will be able to expand their power into the West Bank. They believe they will accomplish this politically and militarily. “This is the biggest vision of Hamas,” states Naveh. He says that Iran has become a key player in helping Hamas. There has been a more radical religious system implemented in Gaza, and more women are wearing the veil as extremism and fanaticism take hold within the population. In this way, Iran has extended its influence among the Palestinians, along with training, funding, and arms supply to terrorists helping to develop the military capabilities of Hamas.

Iran’s Nuclear Threat – a different point of view

Israeli leaders have expressed various viewpoints on whether they believe that Iran would use a nuclear weapon against Israel in the future if the Islamic Republic is able to acquire one. Naveh’s opinion is that Iran would not use the weapon against Israel, but instead, would threaten the Jewish State. Naveh believes that Iran’s goal is a Palestinian Middle East that embraces the ideology of Iran. Therefore, he sees Iran developing a strategy of “forward divisions”: Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border; Hamas on Israel’s southern border with control of Israel’s heartland (the West Bank – Judea and Samaria); Syria on Israel’s northern and eastern border. Naveh claims that Iran would like to see a situation of civil uprising and terrorism in Israel that would weaken the Jewish State.

Naveh warns that an Iranian nuclear umbrella would allow Hezbollah and Hamas to beleaguer Israel, and once the Jewish State was bogged down, this would help Iran in its goal of achieving greater dominance in the region. This threatens Israel and moderate Arab states, which is one reason these states have considered taking a pro-active approach in deterring Iran from its nuclear ambitions. Naveh’s assessment is not to focus so much on Iran pushing the nuclear button in the future, but rather the possibility of regional deterioration into full blown terrorism because of Iran’s ability to threaten states in the Middle East if Iran acquires a nuclear arsenal.

The Philadelphi Corridor

The Philadelphi Corridor, the porous border between Egypt and Gaza, was named in secret Israeli military encoded maps. The term was then used in military jargon, and has now been associated with hundreds of tunnels that go deep underground. From Rafah into Gaza, Bedouins and Palestinians smuggled cows, drugs, and missiles, with each tunnel costing about $20,000 per month to run. Originally, Rafah residents did the smuggling as a family business. But, when Hamas took over Gaza, the weapons smuggling increased.

According to Naveh, as soon as Hamas controlled Gaza, Israeli military forces worked at separating Gaza from the West Bank. This proved to be a successful plan when Israel fought Hamas during the recent Gaza War. At that time, there was quiet and a semblance of order in the West Bank. Meanwhile, Naveh claims that terrorism can only be deterred “night to night, house to house”, not by air strikes. Only this way can you fight terrorism, he explains. You cannot win without securing the area. This is a veiled implication that Israel did not have complete victory in its recent war against Hamas.

Some Israeli politicians and military officials believe that Netanyahu will have to order the IDF to re-take the Philadelphi Corridor in order to stop arms smuggling; and, go back into Gaza to root out Hamas in order to stop rocket attacks on Israeli southern border towns. Naveh believes that the military achievements during the Gaza War were good, but those achievements are slowly eroding. Furthermore, he is concerned that behind Hamas are even greater forces that Israel will have to contend with. Islamic Jihad may increase its military power, followed by Al Qaeda. Finally, the greatest existential threat to Israel is Iran.

While the international community debates the Iran nuclear issue, Israel’s new government will already be focused on neutralizing the forces that Iran uses as proxies against Israel...Hamas, Hezbollah and other militant groups. Israeli leaders will work, strategically, to wipe out terrorist threats on their northern and southern borders while preparing for a more serious confrontation with Iran.

“And, you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.” Matthew 24:6.

Prayer Points:

1. Pray for the new Netanyahu coalition government, especially concerning new foreign policy initiaves. Declare that Netanyahu will cling to the Lord’s statutes throughout his tenure as Prime Minister, according to Psalm 119:33.

2. Declare Psalm 25:22, that God will redeem Israelis out of all their troubles.

3. Pray for the King’s favor of protection for the Jewish people, according to Esther 8:11.

4. Proclaim Psalm 35:1 for Israel in the face of enemy opposition. Pray that God will deliver Israel from her enemies, and that the angel of the Lord will encamp around those in Israel who fear Him (Psalm 34:7).

5. Agree in prayer that the Lord will bring to light the intentions and plans of men that are against His chosen people, according to Psalm 37.

6. Pray that Israel’s borders will be shielded by the Lord’s invisible army. (Joshua 1:4; Joshua 1:7-9). Declare that the Israeli people will be obedient to God so they can receive their land inheritance.

7. Intercede that all Israel will pay attention to the Lord’s commandments, especially during this Passover season, remembering His promises to Moses; meditating on the Lord’s word day and night. (Exodus 12:1-28).

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- X

Jerusalem, Israel

THE FORMATION OF ISRAEL’S NEXT GOVERNMENT

Recent reports indicate that the Labor Party, under the chairmanship of Ehud Barak, will be joining the next government of Israel. Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu has been given the responsbility to put together a government, which most likely, will include Labor, Israel Beitenu, and Shas. Negotiations continue with smaller right-wing parties. Netanyahu has until April 5 to form a government after being given a 2 week extension by Israel's President, Shimon Peres. But, Netanyahu is expected to finish negotiations before that time.


The official Israeli election results from the Central Elections Committee were published in the public records February 18, 2009. Israeli President Shimon Peres then began consulting with Knesset factions with the goal of determining which Knesset member should try and form the next government coalition.

His invitation came on the heels of political maneuvering by both Israeli Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni, leader of the Kadima Party and Netanyahu.

Livni won the February 10, 2009 general election by a narrow lead, but she was not considered able to put together a successful coalition. The left-wing parties she had a natural alliance with lost votes due to an Israeli population swing towards the “right”.

Netanyahu enjoys strong support among a majority of Israel’s new incoming Knesset members, especially those who align themselves with the right-wing bloc.

DIVISIONS ON MAJOR ISSUES

Divisions remain among Israelis on core issues that involve future political, diplomatic, and military decisions. There’s a weakness in Israeli foreign policy strategies set by leaders because of these divisions. The election results indicate the continued polarization between Jew and Arab; left-wing and right-wing; secular and religious.

ELECTORAL REFORM

Israel is about to swear in its 32nd government in 60 years of statehood. Since 1988, no Knesset has served out its full term. There’s always been a coalition crisis that instigates early elections.

As Israel’s political parties bicker over who will be in Netanyahu's government, one thing is certain... Electoral reform will be on the agenda of the 18th Knesset. This may be Israel’s most fractured government to-date. The electoral system needs the reforms to create political stability. There are too many factions pursuing single-interest issues. There is not enough cohesiveness between major political blocs. There is little unity among Israeli leaders except around one core issue – Iran.

Currently, a political party trying to get into the Knesset needs to garner 2% of the votes in the general election. Those members of the Knesset who want electoral reform will try to raise that threshold to, perhaps, 5%. In the U.S. there are two major parties elected to Congress – Democrats and Republicans. In Israel’s recent election, 12 parties made it past the electoral threshold, and all will be represented in the 18th Knesset.

LOSSES AND GAINS

While it is expected that the Kadima Party, headed by Livni, will remain in the opposition, the Labor Party, headed by Barak, now has a chance to improve its status as a strong partner within the new coalition government.

The Labor Party lost a substantial amount of votes in the February 2009 general election. Citizens remember the indecisive military victory at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Amir Peretz, Labor Party Chairman, then, was inexperienced in his position as Defense Minister during that war. Israelis haven’t forgotten how humiliated they felt about the government’s conduct, and how weak Israel’s Defense Forces (the IDF) performed at the time.

Barak, one of the most decorated generals in Israel’s history, was somewhat successful, as Israeli Defense Minister, in overseeing Israel’s battles with Hamas in the recent Gaza war. Yet, his Labor Party still lost the confidence of many Israelis who voted at the polls.

Avigdor Lieberman of Israel Beitenu experienced a significant surge in popularity during the election campaign. Lieberman’s main point of contention has been with the Israeli Arabs living inside the State of Israel. He has wanted to introduce a Citizenship Law in the Knesset. It would require all citizens, including Israeli Arabs to sign a loyalty document; learn the national anthem; and express their loyalty to the Jewish State.

Lieberman’s tough attitude towards Israeli Arabs has garnered favor among Israeli Jewish citizens. They want the nation to appear strong and not weak in the face of Arab hostility -- both inside and outside the country.

Israel Beitenu stated their objectives clearly throughout the election campaign, wanting to address the problems in Israeli society, and hoping to change the status quo. Israel Beitenu has demanded alterations in Israeli law to accommodate civil marriages; and, is looking for solutions to simplify the conversion process to Judaism.

Interestingly, 20% of Israeli Arabs voted for Jewish parties rather than Arab parties during Israel’s general elections. A surprising number voted for United Torah Judaism (UTJ), a right-wing Haredi party. UTJ called on the Arabs to help them battle the influence of Israel Beitenu, because they considered Lieberman racist towards the Arabs and too secular towards the ultra-Orthodox Jews.

A total of 21 women will sit in the next Knesset, the largest number ever to be in the legislative body since the state of Israel was born in 1948.

FOREIGN POLICY DIFFERENCES

Livni, even sitting in Israel's opposition, is expected to challenge Netanyahu's government, especially regarding the diplomatic process. She supports a two-state solution – Israel, side-by-side, a Palestinian state. She also supports a withdrawal from most of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). She has negotiated on the division of Jerusalem. Her position on the Golan Heights is not clear, but she would be expected to challenge Netanyahu to sign a comprehensive peace deal with Syria that would include a withdrawal from the Heights.

Netanyahu is more of a hardliner. His national security strategy is to develop military strength to prepare for battles against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, and to keep Syria in check.

Though Netanyahu doesn’t rule out a type of Palestinian state in the future, where the Palestinians will have some kind of self-rule, he wants to take a different approach to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. He does not want to be pushed by the international community to work out a “land for peace” deal with the Palestinians.

Reciprocity is important to Netanyahu. He wants to see the Palestinians do their part to crackdown on terror, collect weapons from terrorist groups, stop incitement on the streets and in the schools. If the Palestinians show a willingness to advance in peace negotiations at this level of reciprocity, Israel will do its part to open borders, stop building in settlements, and consider giving more military oversight to the Palestinians in the West Bank.

In addition, Netanyahu wants to approach peace negotiations from the bottom-up. He has a plan that would provide economic incentives to help the Palestinian build a better life. His idea is to introduce massive financial investment into the Palestinian sector. He is also calling for regional cooperation with Jordan.

Livni prefers the top–down approach. She wants Israel to carry forth the diplomatic process she began under Ehud Olmert's government. She is looking for a solution that requires an international agreement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Once an agreement is finalized, and approved by Israel’s Security Cabinet, Livni would most likely look to Israeli citizens to fulfill their obligations to the Palestinians, obeying the rule of law. Forcing settlers to withdraw from their homes in the West Bank could start a civil war.


ISRAELI-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to actively and aggressively push for a two-state solution in the Middle East, within the context of a comprehensive peace in the region, most likely focusing on the Arab Peace Initiative.

Dr. Yuval Steinitz, Likud Knesset member, and close advisor to Netanyahu, spoke to this writer about the Arab Peace Initiative in an interview conducted during the Jerusalem Conference in January 2009.

“The good element is that this is the first time the Arab League is calling for general peace with Israel by all the Arab states. This is positive. But, the request for a total withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and the partition of Jerusalem, is totally unacceptable. Even President Obama recognized Israel’s need for defensible borders. And, therefore, I believe this is a non-starter. It is the same in the mentioning of the return of Palestinian ‘refugees’ into Israel, which is totally unacceptable. So, let the Arab League change this initiative in order for us to be able to consider it.”

Several of Israel’s left-wing leaders see the Arab Peace Initiative as a starting point in negotiations, even though Arab states say it is a non-negotiable plan. Part of the coalition agreement between Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu involves an acceptance of a comprehensive peace deal. This could mean that Netanyahu will be pressured by Barak to enter into negotiations over the Arab Peace Initiative.

OBAMA'S INTENTIONS

Meanwhile, in his second day in office, Obama attended the State Department ceremony that appointed George Mitchell as the new American envoy to the Middle East. Mitchell is an experienced and tough negotiator, and he may very well prod, push, and exert his influence on the peace process to get concessions out of Israel and the Palestinians.

At the State Department, Obama signaled to the world that he plans to apply substantial pressure on Israel and the Palestinians to end the conflict. Furthermore, it is expected that he will look for the two parties to reach a final status agreement during his reign in office.

According to the assessment of one Middle East analyst, Obama’s foreign policy team is made up of centrists who have a pragmatic approach to this region. His team seems to encompass the center position of the Democratic Party.

As Israel forms a national unity government, it will be in line with a centrist approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In that way, Netanyahu is expected to get along with Obama and the American Democratic Congress. The Obama Administration's focus may be to push Israel into a regional peace deal.

Many Likud members in Netanyahu’s own party are hesitant about a “land for peace” deal happening now. Since it appears that Obama favors this idea, because he wants to form an alliance with moderate Arabs countries to bring calm to the region, this already shows the possible friction that may occur between Israeli and U.S. leaders in the future.

An additional point for concern is that, since the Gaza war, fewer Americans are supportive of U.S. ties with Israel, although Congressional support for the Jewish state remains strong.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry will continue to court members of the U.S. Congress, the Jewish community, and grassroots America in order to garner public support, as a cornerstone of Israel’s foreign policy efforts. But, the chemistry between Netanyahu and Obama will determine if the U.S.-Israel relationship will be a smooth or rocky road in 2009 and beyond.


“For unto us a Child is born. Unto us a Son is given. And, His name will be called, Wonderful, Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace. Of the increase of His government and peace, there will be no end; Upon the throne of David and over His Kingdom; to order it and establish it with judgment and justice from that time forward, even forever. The zeal of the Lord of Hosts will perform this.” Isaiah 9:6-7

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) PRAY FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT BEING FORMED, AND FOR THE 18TH KNESSET:


(a) for humble leaders (Isaiah 57:15; Isaiah 66:2; Proverbs 3:3-4).

(b) for leaders who fear the Lord more than men (Psalm 118:9; Psalm 146:3).

(c) for those, who, through righteousness will bring the blessing of God (Proverbs 14:34; Psalm 37:6).

(d) that there will be no unholy alliances; no blackmailing; no backroom dealings (Leviticus 10:10-11).

(2) PRAY FOR UNITY IN THE NATION OF ISRAEL:

(a) for God’s Presence to come (2 Chronicles 7:1-4).

(b) that God’s Covenant will be acknowledged and obeyed (Exodus 19:5-6).

(c) that God’s Divine Order will be established properly (Exodus 18:19-23).

(d) for Reconciliation: Jew vs. Arab; right vs. left; government vs. settlers; Orthodox vs. secular; ethnic tensions of Ethiopian & Russian immigrants vs. native-born Israelis (2 Chronicles 7:14; Genesis 33:1-4; Genesis 45:1-15; Ephesians 4:2-3).

(e) that Israel’s citizens will honor and respect the new leaders being appointed (1 Timothy 2:1-8)

(3) PRAY FOR CALM TO COME TO THE NATIONS -- Reconciliation of the nations to God and to Israel:

(a) Kiss the Son lest He be angry (Psalm 2:10-12).

(b) Sheep vs. Goat nations (Matthew 25:32-34).

(c) Swords into Plowshares (Isaiah 2:4; Micah 4:3).

(4) PRAY PROTECTION FOR JEWS FROM GLOBAL ANTI-SEMITISM, AND FROM ACTS OF REVENGE BY TERRORISTS:

(a) Protection from evil plots (Exodus 15:6-13; Esther 8:17).

(5) PRAY THAT ISRAEL WILL FULFILL ITS CALLING TO BE A LIGHT TO THE NATIONS:

(Isaiah 2:3; Isaiah 9:2; Isaiah 49:5-6; Isaiah 60:1-2; Zechariah 8:23).

Friday, January 16, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- IX

Tel Aviv, Israel

WOUNDED ISRAELI SOLDIERS WANT TO FINISH THE JOB

It is the 19th day of the war. Today, I drove to Tel Hashomer Chaim Sheba hospital to visit Israel’s wounded soldiers. The parking lots are so filled with cars that it is hard to find a space. Wounded soldiers are scattered throughout the various hospital wards, depending on what their condition is, and what surgeries have been scheduled.

Many young men and women in green IDF uniforms, as well as family and friends, carry sacks filled with presents. Most are being distributed to the soldiers who have just come off the Gaza battlefield.

Tel Hashomer is the largest hospital complex in the state of Israel, sitting on 150 acres of land, boasting excellent medical services, patient care, and advanced research facilities. To get from one end of the campus to the other you have to drive. It is too far to walk.

At the rehabilitation center, I meet Yvgeny, 20 years old, and originally from the Ukraine. He is an Israeli army sergeant with the elite Givati Brigade. On Sunday, January 4, two days into the IDF ground incursion, Yvgeny was shot in the left leg while fighting Hamas in Gaza. There are 30 soldiers in his squad, but only 16 went into Gaza when he did, along with several commanders. Five soldiers were moderately wounded. Another two received light injuries and have already been released from the hospital.

For one week before the war, Yvgeny’s unit trained specifically for urban warfare. They understood that there would be booby traps, ambushes, attempts to kidnap soldiers, and bombs in houses. They also knew that Hamas gunmen were using young children and women as human shields. They knew what to look for and what to be aware of, because of their specified training.

Now, smiling, Yvgeny tells me his troop morale is high and they can feel the support of the Jewish state. More than 90% of Israelis support this war in Gaza. The war has garnered much greater support from the Israeli population than the Second Lebanon War of 2006.

Meanwhile, some of Yvgeny’s soldiers are still on the battlefield and he wants to join them soon. “I have a few weeks of therapy left, but I am hoping to return to the army and get my job back,” he explains.

When I ask him if he thinks there should be a cease-fire now, or should the IDF continue until they root out Hamas completely, he responds, “We have to finish it. I think all the soldiers want to finish the job. Everybody is very serious inside (Gaza). Nobody wants to leave. This is what we were trained for.... We are not going in there blind.”

On the way out of the rehabilitation center, I meet Dr. Yhuda Pilosof who has been making prosthesis materials for 40 years to fit the needs of his patients. He tells me that there is now a new prosthesis completed with special materials in place that cause movement, similar to fingers on a hand.

Dr. Pilosof proudly shares that several years ago he made prosthesis materials to fit three teenagers who had come to Tel Hashomer from Gaza. It was difficult to fit them properly. One had a leg that was amputated above the knee; another had an amputation all the way up to his thigh. A third was fitted with a prosthesis that went into his hip area. All three were fitted successfully, and they were grateful for the help that came from Tel Hashomer.

The teenagers stayed in touch with Dr. Pilosof for three months after they were released from the hospital. Then, Hamas took over the Palestinian government in 2006. The contact with the teenagers stopped immediately. Dr. Pilosof could only speculate that his three patients weren’t calling anymore because they were afraid of what Hamas would do if the terror organization found out where they had been treated. But, Tel Hashomer, like many hospitals in Israel, treats Arab and Jewish patients together. One nurse emphatically told me that they consider every injured person the same and treat them accordingly.

Sarah, my friend and a hospital volunteer who has been caring for wounded soldiers through many of Israel’s wars, catches a ride with me to the main hospital on the Tel Hashomer campus. In the lobby, Snir a 19 year old combat soldier is sitting with friends. He explains that his arm was severely injured in a “friendly fire” incident. He also received light injuries to his legs.

Snir is not sure exactly what happened on the battlefield, but thinks that those in charge of communications failed to tell an Israeli tank unit that Snir’s combat division was going into a certain building. Then, the tank soldiers saw movement, and thinking it was Hamas gunmen, fired a canon shot through the window into the building. Snir was wounded in the attack.

Sometimes there can be poor communications between tanks and infantry in the field, especially in urban warfare. While Israeli units are well-trained, tight urban settings provide great challenges to armies that are technically superior but not well adapted to densely populated areas. Soldiers can sometimes lose contact with one another and fail to know who they are firing on.

Snir has only been in the army eight months. He’s in the famous Golani Brigade. He wants to fight again when he is released from the hospital. “Israel, my country; Israel, my land”, he tells me in broken English, and adds, “In war people die. We have an army. We have power. We have to use it. We can’t be afraid of injury or death. We’re not afraid. We have a mission. We have a target. I hope we will do it. This is the best army in the world.”

Snir also thinks the IDF should finish the job in Gaza and root out Hamas before any cease-fire is in place.

When I tell Snir that I have heard about miracles taking place in Israeli cities where rockets are falling, Snir relays to me that there are also miracles on the battlefield. He explains that a lot more Hamas members are being killed than is being reported in the media; while at the same time many Israeli soldiers have been protected during the war.

One story he shares is about a soldier who went into a house in Gaza. The soldier saw a bomb. He ran away. And, within seconds the bomb exploded. The soldier was unharmed. To Snir this is a miracle he will not forget.

As I am talking to Snir, I notice several young ladies coming to see two soldiers sitting in the lobby. So, I walk over to Mickey, a 25 year old company tank commander. As an officer, Mickey is responsible for 60 men in his army unit. He’s been serving in the IDF for 6 l/2 years. Mickey’s finger was crushed by an accident that happened in his tank. He has already been back in Gaza to fight. But, now he has to go through rehabilitation for two weeks, and will not be able to join his unit until his finger is healed.

Mickey thinks the war will be over soon. But, he believes fighting the war was necessary so that Israel could defend itself. “Everybody wants to be in Gaza and fight. It’s very important for all Israel. It’s a big war,” he explains.

Mickey’s buddy, Ronen, is sitting next to him, embarrassed by all the attention he is getting from the young girls who are visiting. An officer over 25 men, Ronen has been in the IDF for 3 l/2 years. During an explosion in Gaza, he was hit in the right soldier. He says it is no big deal, but admits to me that the injury is painful.

Both soldiers are reluctant to have their pictures taken, but they appreciate that all these people have come to visit and bring them gifts. It seems to be the personal attention that makes them feel like heroes, and helps them to forget their injury and pain, at least for a moment in time.

Sarah and I find our way to the third floor of the hospital to visit 21 year old Daniel. He accepts gifts from us – a large bag of “Bomba” (a popular Israeli salty snack), and a big stuffed animal, which Daniel cuddles while smiling for a picture. Many friends and family are visiting with him, and they explain to me that Daniel just arrived to the hospital on Monday, January 12. A girl friend of Daniel’s translates his testimony into English.

While in Gaza, Daniel was holding his position in a house with an open gate. Suddenly, there was a shot from outside. He started running, and then was hit by a Hamas gunman in the back. Another soldier pulled him out of the combat zone, and they waited for an Israeli helicopter to rescue him. According to Daniel’s report, the bullet entered his back and exited through his stomach. He is not paralyzed, and he is expected to recover from his injury.

Daniel is a sergeant with the Israeli Paratroopers, and wants to go back in the field. Three others from his unit received light injuries. Yet, he claims the soldiers are very strong. “They want to kick Hamas in the buttocks, and they are not afraid. They should finish the job,” he says.

As soon as Daniel is finished with his testimony, his mother Sophia walks in the room. Instinctively, I hug her, and she warmly hugs me back. Our eyes meet, and I see the concern on her face for her son’s well-being. Following her, an entourage of soldiers in uniform, friends, and more family members come into the room. It is now very crowded. A group representing the Tel Aviv “Hapoel” football (soccer) players brings Daniel a scarf to wear with their logo on it.

As I exit the hospital room, two soldiers talk to me about the Gaza war. One of them is in charge of border security with the Nahal unit in the north of the country. He reports that four rockets were just fired from southern Lebanon into Kiryat Shmona, a town on Israel’s northern border. Israeli units immediately retaliated in the direction of the rocket fire and killed one of the terrorists.

I ask him if he thinks that a war is now going to start with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Nahal soldier explains, “Hezbollah is afraid of what happened in Gaza. We think they will do nothing.” He adds, “I think Israel has no interest in a cease-fire because then we have accomplished nothing. We need to demolish the Hamas infrastructure and get all the leaders, weapons, and rockets.”

Standing right next to him is his friend, Yaniv, 21 years old, and in charge of an artillery force in the north. Yaniv is not in uniform. He received an injury some time ago, and is recuperating, so he is not on the northern border with his squad. He reveals that he is commander over 12 people in the Alon platoon.

According to Yaniv, “to each solution there are consequences. We have to enter Gaza and to destroy the infrastructure. If not, our civilians will be injured.” I ask Yaniv, what about the civilians of Gaza who are caught in the cross-fire? Yaniv responds, “Before the air force bombs buildings, the army has ways to warn the people before they bomb.”

Yaniv is referring to the psychological campaign the IDF has waged in Gaza. They have distributed hundreds of thousands of leaflets warning Gaza residents not to stay in buildings where Hamas members dwell. They have told these same Gazans to be careful not to agree to be human shields. And, before the IAF (Israel’s Air Force) strikes buildings in Gaza, they make phone calls to thousands of mobile phones, telling citizens to get out of the area.

Sometimes, Gazans go on the rooftops, hoping the IAF will see them and not strike. But, if the IAF plans to strike, they will fire warning shots, so the Gaza residents run out of the building to escape. No other state army, like Israel’s, has gone to such unprecedented measures to warn citizens of their intentions, which they continue to claim is not to hurt innocent people, but to kill the terrorists.

Yaniv makes sure I understand that the Islamic belief is to die on behalf of Allah, which Moslems consider a sacred act. So, the most simple of combat techniques learned by contemporary armies, doesn’t work on Moslem terrorists. “It is hard to fight them. They don’t mind dying,” says Yaniv. He adds that Hezbollah is worse, as they are tougher fighters. He admits that Hamas is learning from Hezbollah.

Yaniv’s friend joins in the discussion again. “Israeli kids here are educated to go in the army. They do it for the love,” he says, meaning that they do it for their country and people. “It’s part of the culture.”

What’s obvious from all these soldiers I meet is that love is extended from family member and friend to each soldier, and vice versa. Israelis are strong on family commitment, and they stick together. They have to, because they are fighting for the survival of the state.

Before leaving the crowds at the hospital, Sarah brings me to a special unit where an Israeli Druse family is being comforted by Myan, a 19 year old Israeli female soldier from the Golani Brigade. Her job is to counsel family members when their sons or daughters are severely wounded in combat. There are still many soldiers scattered throughout other hospitals in Israel she has visited. I ask Myan what the terms mean: lightly injured; moderately wounded; seriously injured; and critically wounded. She describes each term for me.

(1) Lightly injured is when there is no danger to the body or to a person’s life. Most soldiers lightly injured are treated and discharged from the hospital within hours.

(2) Moderately wounded is when there is danger of losing a part of the body. But, the person’s life is not in danger.

(3) Seriously injured is when there is danger of losing a part of the body, and also the person’s life is in danger.

(4) Critically wounded is when a person is between life and death.

In the case of Druse soldier, Wael, his family tells me he is critically wounded, and they are not sure if he will make it. Sitting around a table together, with some family members wearing the traditional white scarf on their head, their faces are somber. But, they graciously offer me Turkish coffee and something to eat. I decline the strong caffeinated hot drink and accept a glass of sweet orange soda, and a chocolate cookie. I listen intently to their stories, mostly in Hebrew.

Hoping that I can give them some ray of hope, they explain that Wael was in a Golani unit that was hit in Gaza. He is in a coma with an injury to his head. If he makes it, he will need long term care.

Sarah gives more details. Many families, like this one, will stay in the hospital for days until their loved one has recovered. They sleep in hotel rooms nearby. Their children come and stay with them. It’s costly to these families who only get a small stipend from the government or charities. Sarah clarifies that more people need to give funds, not just to help the soldiers, but also the families who suffer along with them. Some families have to renovate their homes to accommodate those who are now disabled by permanent injuries.

Before I leave, Wael’s father, Adl, and his mother, Afaf, show me a picture of Wael so I will pray. His big sister Nasreen cries on my shoulder. And, his grandmother, Galea, hugs me and kisses me several times on the cheeks. They seem very happy that I have come to visit them, and they hope I will come, again, in better times.

As I walk out to the hallway, an elevator door opens up, and a mass of people exit with hands full of gifts. Taking my place in the elevator, I realize that these gifts are going to be distributed to the soldiers I have just visited. My heart is touched as I recall the smiles I have seen by those who know that love has no boundaries. This is what holds Israeli people together. The bond of love is so strong, and the gift of life so precious.

Despite their injuries, they read Psalms and pray to the God of Israel. Somehow, they know He is watching over them, protecting them and their land forever.

“He who watches over Israel will neither slumber nor sleep.” Psalm 123:4 (This is a popular verse that Israelis have been quoting during the war).

Saturday, January 3, 2009

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- VIII

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL’S WAR WITH HAMAS

On Saturday, December 27, 2008, Israeli war planes struck Hamas targets in Gaza. Taking Hamas by surprise, the IDF (Israel's Defense Force) operation took place to put an end to eight years of rocket attacks on Israeli citizens.

Reports indicate that Israel’s current war against Hamas is the heaviest military strike by Israel since the 1967 Six Day War.

Mark Regev, spokesman for the Israeli prime minister’s office, talked recently to journalists on a conference call from Israel. Hosted by The Israel Project, Regev explained why Israel’s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert; his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak; and, his Foreign Minister, Tzippi Livni all agreed to attack Hamas at this time.

Regev commented that Hamas publicly tried to abrogate the cease-fire understandings with Israel that were recently negotiated through Egypt; and, Hamas had acted to accelerate the situation on the ground by increasing the rocket attacks against Israeli civilians. He added that Israel is creating “a new reality on the ground; a new security environment in which no longer will hundreds of thousands of Israelis live in fear.”

Israel’s leadership has been united in wanting to neutralize Hamas to protect Israeli residences living in southern communities so they will no longer be on the receiving end of a rocket war.

“The ultimate truth is that Hamas is holding hostage not just the civilian population in southern Israel, which is living under the threat of the rocket barrages, but also its own population in the Gaza Strip,” Regev stated.

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans have had to live under suffering and hardship while Hamas continues to reject international demands. This has caused a humanitarian aid crisis, at times, and isolated the people of Gaza because of their rebellious leadership. Hamas has refused to accept the demands of the international community – that is, to recognize Israel’s right to exist; to stop the violence and renounce terrorism; and to act in accordance with those agreements already laid out in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Part of the strategy of the current Israeli government has been to show the Palestinians of Gaza that Israel is not fighting them; and, that Israel’s enemy is Hamas. Despite the continued rocket barrage, the Olmert government has taken steps to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza in order to make sure the population does not suffer shortages. Soon after Israel’s December 27 military offensive, officials opened the border crossings and truck loads of food, medicine, fuel and other supplies were allowed through. Israel will continue to help the Gaza population while, militarily, trying to stop terrorist attacks by Hamas and other militant groups.

Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in June 2007. Since then, Gaza has been infiltrated by extremist forces including Iranian operatives and Al-Qaeda. Hamas has also instituted Sharia Law and is forcing it on the Gazan population, persecuting Christians and others that do not comply.

Hamas has built its military wing into a substantial force, with many members trained in Iran, and with Iranian money helping Hamas to purchase longer-range missiles and larger explosives for its weapons arsenal.

Hamas has been influenced by Hezbollah guerillas in Lebanon, adapting the strategies that the terrorist group used against Israel during the Second Lebanon War of 2006. They have played on Israel’s weakness – that is, the inability to stop short-range rockets from infiltrating Israeli air space. Currently, Israel has no effective way of stopping these rockets from hitting Israeli cities and towns, now in a range of 20-40 kilometers. In the future, Israel hopes to stop the rockets with a special anti-missile defense system, but it will not be ready to be deployed until 2010 or beyond.

Another way that Israel is looking to stop Hamas is to completely destroy not only its military infrastructure, but its weapons arsenal, and its underground rocket launchers. Therefore, Israel has had no choice but to send in thousands of ground troops. The ground operation began on January 3, 2009, signaling a much longer and brutal war ahead.

During the past several weeks, Israeli army officials have admitted they do not have an exit strategy for getting out of Gaza once they go in. Analysts in Israel are concerned that Israel will get stuck in a Gaza quagmire similar to what happened in Lebanon in the 1980's.

Responding to questions from journalists about the multitude of casualties on the Palestinian side since Israel began “Operation Cast Lead” on December 27, Regev said that Hamas has a propaganda interest in highlighting civilian casualties and minimizing damage to their military machine. He reiterated that Israel is trying to do surgical strikes aimed at Hamas only.

“We don’t want to hit Palestinian civilians. We don’t see the people of Gaza as our enemy,” he stated several times. Medical sources, human rights activists, and Israeli officials have reported that the majority of Palestinian casualties have been Palestinian policemen and gunmen belonging to terrorist groups.

From June until November 2008, Israel and Hamas entered into a hudna – a temporary cease-fire. It was suppose to last until December 2008. In November, Israel blew up an illegal underground tunnel in Gaza that was allegedly being used by Hamas to stage a terrorist attack. Hamas responded with increased rocket attacks on Israeli border towns which have continued.

Hamas also used the cease-fire to build-up its weapons arsenal, including missiles which are now not only being launched against citizens in Sderot and the western Negev, but also aimed at Ashkelon, Ashdod, and Beersheva. More Israelis have been wounded and killed since the war began.

Contrary to some reports in the media, Israel has no interest in re-occupying Gaza. After unilaterally withdrawing from the Gaza Strip in August 2005 under the leadership of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Israel’s current government has made it clear they do not want to rule the Palestinians. And, they say the IDF is merely acting defensively to protect Israeli citizens.

So, what are Israel’s next steps? According to Regev, “We are willing to live in peace with Gaza. The question is whether Gaza is willing to live in peace with us. It is the Hamas regime that tore up the cease-fire agreement.”

Israel is looking for another cease-fire with Hamas, and wants to see Gaza restored, especially the structural damage caused by recent Israeli air raids.

When this current war against Hamas began, more than 50% of the Israeli population supported the government’s effort. That support has increased to more than 90%. Talking to Israelis about the current situation they almost unanimously say, “This needed to be done”. They believe that Israel is acting in self-defense. Most would like to see the current war finish quickly, and they hope they will then live in peace with the people of Gaza.

In the meantime, the Olmert government is bent on breaking the Hamas stronghold in Gaza, while at the same time, hoping that the United States and the Quartet will convince the Hamas leadership to accept a cease-fire and stop the rocket attacks immediately. One can only pray this happens sooner than later as Israeli combat units fight Hamas on the ground inside Gaza.

PRAYER POINTS:

During this current ground war, pray that Hamas will not be able to fortify military posts in the Gaza Strip, nor dig effective tunnel systems and underground bunkers for its troops.

Pray that all plans Hamas has to use anti-tank missile units will be disrupted. Pray that any bombs they have prepared or placed on main roads into Gaza will be clearly seen by Israeli troops and detonated safely.

Pray that Israeli soldiers will discern and discover all hidden booby traps and all deceptive ambushes created by Hamas and other terrorist groups. Pray that terrorists will not be able to use anti-aircraft cannons or shoulder-to-air missiles against Israel.

Pray for Israeli combat soldiers to have effective back-up and reinforcements prepared and ready for action on the battlefield. See Isaiah 35:3-4.

Pray for the weather to cooperate. The Israeli Air Force cannot provide effective support for ground forces when there is poor visibility.

Pray that the Lord will protect Israeli forces stationed along the security fence. Pray that He will not allow Hamas to re-institute suicide bombings against Israeli citizens anywhere in the country. Pray that Hamas will not be able to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

• According to reports, Hamas, in coordination with other militant groups, has 15,000-20,000 armed men in the Gaza Strip. Pray that there will be confusion in their ranks. Pray that they will not be able to carry out the plans of Israel’s enemies. Please declare Psalm 70:1-3.

• The war in Gaza could place Corporal Gilad Shalit in even greater danger. He’s been held prisoner by Hamas for over 900 days, since June 2006. Pray according to Zechariah 9:11-12 and Hebrews 13:3 for Shalit.

• Declare Zechariah 9:14, Zechariah 10:4-6, and Psalms 144:1-8 for the IDF in its current battle in the south.

• Proclaim Psalm 144:12 for those Israeli young people who must start their military service fresh out of high school.

• Pray Psalm 145:14-21 for both Israeli and Gazan citizens caught up in the cross-fire of this war.

• If there is to be a cease-fire, pray that it happens very soon, and is favorable towards Israel, and that Hamas is not able to smuggle any more weapons into the Gaza Strip. Pray that Hamas honors the cease-fire.

• Pray that Israel’s current government will not make decisions based on political ambitions. Some are concerned that Barak and Livni have unified to act now against Hamas to boost their popularity with the Israeli public before the upcoming February 2009 national elections. It’s also possible that Olmert has stood unified with Barak and Livni because he is looking for a legacy that includes a successful war against Hamas, instead of only being remembered for his failures in the Second Lebanon War and the corruption charges filed against him during his reign as prime minister. Pray for righteousness and justice to prevail within this current government!

• Pray against the unbelief that plagues Israeli leaders. Pray that they will rely on God’s promises to them and that no root of bitterness will spring up that causes them to act with wrong motives. See Hebrews 12:15. Declare James 4:10.

• Agree in prayer that Israel’s goals will be accomplished:
(1) To stop the rocket attacks from Hamas. (2) To stop the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. (3) To stop the Gaza terrorist activity against Israel.

• Pray that Israel’s goals will be clearly understood and approved by a majority of international leaders. Pray that there will be quiet on Arab streets and neighborhoods throughout the world. Pray that all anti-Israel protests and riots will cease immediately.

• There is a high alert in the north of Israel. Recently, Lebanese armed forces discovered eight Katyusha rockets that were ready to be launched against Israel. Pray that Hezbollah will not attack Israel’s northern border while a majority of Israel’s forces are concentrated in the south.

• Pray that the Lord will reveal any Hezbollah plan to attack global Jewish interests. Pray that the terrorist group will stop trying to avenge the death of Hezbollah's military commander, Imad Mughniyeh. The one year anniversary of his death is February 2009.

• Stand in agreement with Israelis throughout the nation who are reading and speaking Psalm 121 and Psalm 130, claiming God’s spiritual promises to them.

• As an intercessor remember that this battle is not only in the natural, but also in the spiritual, and that much is accomplished through your prayers. (See Romans 8:37).

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 242

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