Jerusalem, Israel
Israelis are at a breaking point, with several issues surfacing, and with the understanding that the political, diplomatic, and military balance in the country is in the process of rapid change.
What follows is a strategic assessment of news developments that are part of this process of change.
HEADLINES:
- Political Assessment
- Military Assessment
- Greater Cooperation Between Nations
POLITICAL ASSESSMENT
The on-going corruption case against Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in its beginning stages. But, already it has increased public mistrust in Olmert, and in the way Israel's political system functions. Several members of Olmert's government; members of the Knesset, both past and present; and, former prime ministers have been under police investigations, during one time or another, concerning the alleged misuse of funds. Therefore, change in political laws is imperative to stop the temptation towards fraud and bribery.
Meanwhile, at best, Israelis can expect a call for early elections, which would likely take place in the late fall of this year.
It is possible that Olmert’s Kadima party will strike a deal with him for a gracious exit. That would mean that Kadima would hold primaries, elect a successor to Olmert, and keep the current government in place until new elections. At that point, Olmert’s successor, heading the Kadima party, would run for the position of prime minister, along with other’s (probably, Labor party head Ehud Barak, and Likud party head, Benjamin Netanyahu).
A majority of Israelis want early elections, which means a time of transition in the country. This could lead to: (a) political instability in the nation for five months during election campaigning; (b) the shelving of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and between Israel and the Syrians; (c) a chance for Palestinians in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza to unify against Israel; (d) a general surge in terror against Israel.
Declare Psalm 121. If there is a call for early elections, pray that the Lord God of Israel will watch over His land, and prevent chaos from developing, during a period of political and diplomatic uncertainty.
Prayer is needed for Ehud Olmert. If he is guilty, pray that God would reveal this; expose any evil trail of his misdeeds; and that, if indicted, he would be prosecuted fairly under the law.
If he is not guilty, pray that he will learn from his unethical decisions. These include extracting large sums of cash from friends and donors over many years, without paying back loans; leading an extravagant lifestyle as a political leader who is out of touch with his constituency; and, engaging in alleged backdoor political and business dealings that point to a conflict of interest during his political career.
Prayer should be directed, as well, towards political reform of election laws in Israel. It is too easy to find loopholes in the current electoral system, especially when it comes to campaign financing.
Pray that Israeli government leaders put what’s good for the country before what is good for them, politically. Ask God to raise up men like David; men after God’s own heart.
(1 Samuel 13:13-14; 1 Samuel 15:22-23, 28-29).
MILITARY ASSESSMENT
Gaza: In the coming days, we will know if there is going to be a cease-fire or war between Israel and the terrorist Palestinian government of Hamas. Either way, there are indications that rioters from Gaza could try and breach border crossings between Israel and Gaza and between Egypt and Gaza. This, alone, could cause the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians to escalate.
Conditions in Gaza are at a critical stage right now, with the situation on the ground ready to boil over any day. The political instability in the Israeli government contributes to a perception, by Hamas and other terrorist groups, that the government of Israel is weak. Therefore, acts of aggression may follow soon. (2 Chronicles 16:9).
Pray for God to impart wisdom and understanding to those leaders in Israel’s government that will listen to His counsel. Pray that they will know whether it is to Israel’s advantage to accept a temporary cease-fire with Hamas, or whether it is time for a full-scale military incursion into Gaza. Either way, Israeli government officials feel the cleansing of Gaza’s terrorist infrastructure is long overdue. The continued rocket fire against Israeli towns has not stopped, and it will expand to include an even greater threat to Israel’s population, if the IDF (Israel’s Defense Forces) doesn’t act soon.
Lebanon: A recent victory in political negotiations to end a stalemate in Lebanon, has led to an increase in political power by Hezbollah, a terrorist group that has turned Lebanon into a terrorist state within a state. Israeli officials claim that Hezbollah is a battalion of the Iranian army that is guided, trained and equipped by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Israel’s military assessment is that Hezbollah is now considered stronger that Lebanon’s general army.
Though Hezbollah is a minority party in the Lebanese government its political leaders now have veto power over every decision made by the newly formed cabinet. Israeli officials have asserted that Lebanon is becoming a proxy state of Iran through the increased power of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has announced an upcoming prisoner exchange with Israel. If this information is correct, a prisoner exchange would help Israel know whether its P.O.W.’s in Lebanon (Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser) are still alive. Israel is also trying to negotiate a prisoner exchange with Hamas in Gaza for the return of P.O.W. Corporal Gilad Shalit.
Pray that Israel will remain strong and firm in any imminent prisoner exchange, and not release Lebanese or Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails that have “blood on their hands.”
Pray that no manipulation from foreign governments, or terrorist armies, will be able to weaken Israel’s resolve.
Pray that Israel’s enemies will release all Israeli P.O.W.’s immediately, and without compromise to Israel’s interests. (Joel 3:4).
Pray for newly elected Lebanese president, Michel Suleimen, who will have limited political power, and who faces a huge task of uniting various religious clans in a nation that has already endured numerous years of bloody civil war.
Syria: A stable Israeli government must be in place before the end of 2008, in order to deal with increased tensions between Israel and Syria. While it is known that there are peace negotiations going on between Israel and Syria for a Golan Heights deal, what is little known is that Syria continues to remain a close military ally of both Iran and Russia, with no intention of disrupting these on-going partnerships.
Recently, the U.S. reported that there are hidden nuclear sites in Syria, contributing to an alleged secret nuclear program. It’s now a known fact that North Korea has been supplying nuclear components to Syria. Russia continues to supply Syria with advanced arms. Iran continues to send arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria.
Pray that there will be no deception in Israel as to the true intentions of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Pray that all evil intentions will be exposed. (1 Kings 20:22).
Pray that Israel will see the true nature of Russia, a country that is not only selling arms to Syria, but to Iran. Russia is attempting to gain leverage in the region by also making deals with Saudi Arabia, and forming a nuclear cooperation agreement with Egypt.
The problem is that Israel is dependent on Russia for most of its crude oil, and for at least $1 billion a year in trade. In addition, Israel has developed strong business ties with Russia in several sectors of society, including energy, industry, aviation and medicine.
Pray that the Lord will wean Israel from its dependence on Russia, and open the eyes of Israeli government officials to see Russia’s negative influence on the region, today, and in the future. (Read Ezekiel Chapters 38 and 39).
Iran: Despite continued UN sanctions, Iran is defying orders to stop its on-going nuclear program. Israel is convinced that Iran’s nuclear program is moving at a much faster rate than originally anticipated.
Kadima party member and Israeli General Shaul Mofaz, met in early spring with his U.S. counterparts in strategic cooperation meetings in Washington. He assessed that Iran could have a nuclear bomb by 2009.
There are some indications that Israel may be considering military action against Iran by the beginning of 2009, or before.
Some of the signs towards that projection follow:
(1) Israel conducted unprecedented country-wide emergency drills during homeland security operations in early spring 2008.
(2) Homeland security heads from the U.S., Europe, and Israel met, recently, to share intelligence information; to hear briefings on terrorism from Israeli defense officials; and to discuss forming closer partnerships.
(3) The Israeli government has indicated that they will be distributing gas masks to the public by January 2009.
(4) Israeli defense industry leaders have gotten permission from Israel’s leading rabbis to work on the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system on Shabbat. The system was expected to be completed in 2010, but Israel is requesting that it be completed much sooner.
(5) Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman, Tzahi Hanebi, has called for a general election to take place as soon as possible, folllowed by the formation of a national unity government to deal with the strategic threats from Iran.
Recently, at a Jerusalem press conference during the homeland security meeting of western nations, I asked Israel’s Public Security Minister, Avi Dichter a question about the current terrorist threat against Israel. He spoke of Iran’s threat to Israel, not just through their nuclear program, but also through their terrorist network.
“Iran is behind terror activities against Israel and against other countries. Here in Israel, we are facing a history of terrorist attacks by Iran by proxy for many years. Islamic Jihad is under Iranian supervision, indirectly, by Hezbollah since 1994. Hamas is under Iran’s instructions since 2001. Al-Aqsa (Martyrs) Brigades are being paid -- it’s a pure business -- since the beginning of the Intifada. Strategically, Israel is not going to let into the Gaza Strip another entity of terror with military equipment to be built in the Gaza Strip. So, blocking the current flow of the rockets is the most urgent mission. Blocking the enhancement of smuggling from Sinai into Gaza is a very urgent mission, as well. Cracking down on the military capabilities of terrorists in the Gaza Strip is a long-range mission and it will probably take years.”
GREATER COOPERATION BETWEEN NATIONS
Israel and U.S. leaders are troubled by signs that the balance of power in the Middle East is tipping towards Islamic domination. If this trend continues, strong leadership in new elections in both countries is essential; leadership that does not look to appease rogue nations with nuclear capability; leadership that is willing to take firm action against such states, before the Middle East becomes a region of nuclear proliferation.
Israel, North America, and some European nations are already engaging in deeper strategic cooperation dialogue, sharing greater intelligence information. NATO is upgrading military ties between Israel and European nations. There has been talk about the forming of a league of democratic nations that would take stronger diplomatic and, possibly, military action against common enemies.
At the “Facing Tomorrow” President’s Conference that took place earlier this month in Jerusalem, Israel’s current ambassador to the United Nations, Dan Gillerman, expressed his disappointment with the UN Security Council. He indicated that it was impossible to get many important resolutions passed through the Council because of continued vetoes by the country of Libya. Gillerman and Republican presidential candidate John McCain have both talked, independently, about forming a league of nations to by-pass the UN.
A time is coming when free democratic nations may have to go to war against rogue states that have nuclear capability. If there is a movement in this direction, the populations of western democracies will have to come into alignment with the decisions of their government leaders. It will mean an end to foreign policies that call for appeasement with enemy states. It will also mean that Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations will be put on hold.
Pray for leaders of nations to come into alignment with God’s Kingdom plans and purposes (Psalm 2).
Pray for Israel not to retreat but to advance, through repentance, courage, and confidence in the Lord, so that the land can receive the blessings of God. (Isaiah 26:15).