This is a political, diplomatic, and military assessment of current developments in Israel, the Middle East, and other regions of the world. It includes specific prayer points, at the conclusion, for those watching global events.
HEADLINES:
- Preparations For Future Military Conflicts
- The Iranian Threat
- Middle East Alignments
- Olmert's Negotiations With Syria
- The Golan Heights
- Changes In Influence In the Middle East
- Shelf Agreements and Drawer Plans
- Statistics on Corruption
- Prayer Points
PREPARATIONS FOR FUTURE MILITARY CONFLICTS
From high alert to high alert, Israel is always in a preparatory state for a future military conflict. In line with that assessment, the Israeli government has recently allowed defense officials to go on record in announcing to media outlets that the IAF (Israeli Air Force) is preparing for action on several fronts. This is Israel’s saber rattling towards enemy states and their proxies. Putting Iran on notice, IDF officials and government leaders have recently boasted of Israeli military advancements in jet fighters, anti-defense missile systems, and sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles that can carry deadly weapons as payloads.
On Israel’s northern border, reports indicate that Hezbollah has tripled its military capabilities since the Second Lebanon War of 2006. It has also entrenched itself in re-built and fortified underground bunkers north and south of the Litani River, despite the presence of UN troops in the area since the end of the war. Hezbollah, which just won substantial political gains within the Lebanese government, may want to show off its military might by looking for the right moment to engage Israel in a conflict over the Shaba Farms territory, which is currently under Israeli control. Both Lebanese and Syrian leaders claim this area is officially part of their domain.
Syria and Israel are engaged in widely publicized peace negotiations, and while on the “brink of peace”, Israel knows it also means the “brink of war”. If negotiations break down, Syria will only draw closer to its present ally... Iran.
Though U.S. reports indicate otherwise, Syria has refused to admit that it has hidden nuclear facilities within the state. In the future, if Israeli leaders believe these facilities are close to becoming operational, the IAF may consider another strike on Syrian territory, similar to the Israeli strike on a nuclear plant in the northern Syrian desert on September 6, 2007. This could lead to a strong military response from Syria.
While Israel deals with various risks to its national stability, the greatest preparations both diplomatically and politically involve the longer-range regional threat ... Iran.
THE IRANIAN THREAT
Israel seems to have successfully convinced France, the UK, Germany, and Italy that the dangers of Iran extend beyond the Middle East to Europe. This is because Iran is building sophisticated missiles that will eventually be capable of hitting Europe’s coastal region.
Israeli diplomatic negotiations with Europe have resulted in an increase in strategic cooperation agreements, with a recent political upgrade in Israel-EU relations.
French President Nicholas Sarkozy made an official visit to Israel recently, putting his full support behind the Jewish state with regard to Iran. France has taken over the EU presidency this summer, which benefits Israel because of the already close relationship with Sarkozy.
On July 13, Sarkozy is forming a new union of European and Mediterranean countries. This will provide a strong united front of regional cooperation in lieu of the Iranian threat. It could also include the opportunity for greater coordination with NATO in advanced military maneuvers. Already, Israeli defense forces have been close observers to expansive NATO exercises in the region.
Israel recently held its own mass military exercise in the Mediterranean, with 100 jet fighters doing flyovers that included a stretch of 1500 kilometers – precisely the distance from Israel to Iran. This follows less known Israeli military exercises in North America, Italy, Greece, and Spain.
During the past month, two top Israeli IDF officers talked about a possible military confrontation between Israel and Iran. It appears that the Israeli government allowed these men to speak-up in order to assess public opinion. When Israeli Deputy Prime Minister General Shaul Mofaz (born in 1948 in Tehran) made his statement about a military option against Iran, the stock market showed a marked fluctuation, and the price of oil skyrocketed. When former Deputy Defense Minister, Ephraim Sneh spoke his mind on the subject, there was no marked response in world markets.
Meanwhile, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen has been in Israel twice in recent months to talk with defense officials about Iran. His visit follows an unprecedented number of high level U.S. military officers visiting the Jewish state, including two four-star U.S. generals.
Mullen commented that there have been several incidents in the Straits of Hormuz involving Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats which have aggressively approached U.S. ships, and he expects there could be similar encounters in the future. Millions of barrels of oil are shipped daily through the Straits which constitute about 20% of the world’s consumption. About 60% of global oil supplies pass through there. One Iranian tactic that could jeopardize the world economy and lead to war would be to cut off the flow of oil through the Straits.
Recently, Iran threatened to do just that. It said that if attacked it would launch missile attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests in the Gulf region and choke off the Straits. This would cause oil prices to rise sustantially.
Israel is looking seriously at a recent military transaction that allegedly took place between Russia and Iran. According to reports, Russia may have sold Iran an advanced air defense missile system that can track dozens of targets, simultaneously, and could hurt Israel’s ability to strike Iran effectively. Threatening Israel’s qualitative edge, the deployment of this system in Iran would have major repercussions for Israel. The IAF could decide to strike Iran before the system is delivered.
Most of the world’s attention is on the upcoming U.S. elections in a contest that is pitting Democratic contender Barak Obama against Republican contender John McCain. Obama’s previous call for diplomatic talks with Iran has caused anxiety in some Israeli sectors. While current U.S. President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are strong on the need to stop Iran’s nuclear program, nobody in Israel really knows how Obama will react if he becomes the next American president.
Israel needs American IFF (electronic Identification Friend or Foe) military codes to be able to fly over Iraq and Turkey in the event of a military strike against Iran. Would Obama provide these if he felt it wasn’t right for Israel to attack Iran?
The shuttling back and forth of U.S. officers to Israel, and media reports about current high level coordination between the two countries, has caused speculation about a possible Israeli air strike on Iranian nuclear sites during the period of transition in America between the 2008 U.S. November presidential elections and the inauguration in January 2009.
If Israel decides to strike and has to go it alone, the Jewish state is counting on help from America’s military. Looking at the present level of strategic cooperation between the two countries, it is likely that Israel would get the help it needs.
MIDDLE EAST ALIGNMENTS
According to Matti Steinberg, former Senior Advisor to the heads of the General Security Service (GSS) in Israel, there is no question that the involvement and interference of Iran in the Israeli-Arab conflict is stronger than any time before. It is part of the “Arabization” of Iran, he said. Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, but by being involved at the center of gravity of the Arab world, Steinburg believes Iran is presenting itself as loyal to the Arab conscience. Materially, Iran is the main supporter of Hamas.
Speaking at a recent gathering of journalists in Jerusalem, Steinberg explained that Israel should align itself with Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia as a common denominator against the Iranian threat.
“It becomes clear, more and more, that Iran is behind the main troubles in the area. It is behind Hezbollah and Hamas. It strives for a nuclear military power. And, maybe, an important way to weaken the extremists in the area is to weaken Iran. But, you have to prepare the political ground, and for this reason, you need the political process.”
Israel is now involved in several political processes with an aim at gathering a coalition of countries together for the primary purpose of stopping Iran, both in terms of its nuclear ambitions and its desire for regional dominance through terrorism.
OLMERT’S NEGOTIATIONS WITH SYRIA
It’s probable that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert went into peace talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad to pull Syria out of the Iranian axis. This could be Olmert’s tactic – to negotiate on the Golan Heights issue, but not finalize any kind of settlement with Syria. This would be accomplished in order to isolate Iran, and attempt to increase the friction and suspicion between Iran and Syria.
The result might be that if Iran is attacked by Israel, with or without Western coalition forces helping, Syria would not feel compelled to participate in the conflict. This might be part of Olmert’s diplomatic maneuvering in preparation for a future military strike against Iran.
But, pulling Syria away from Iran will not be easy. Syria has a close strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, and both share the benefits of military cooperation with Russia, a country that continues to sell advanced arms to Damascus and Tehran.
THE GOLAN HEIGHTS
A majority of Israelis still do not want to cede the Golan Heights. As one former defense minister put it, “It’s better to be on top of the Heights than to be on the bottom.” Many citizens were not born yet, or don’t want to remember the times when the Heights were in Syrian hands and snipers frequently shot, wounded and killed Israelis living below. At least 30,000 Israelis live on the Golan today, which is a major water source for Israel.
In June, a joint session of the Knesset’s Law and House committees approved a first reading of a bill that would demand a “national referendum” before handing over any land currently under Israel’s authority. It also passed its first reading in the Knesset by a significant majority.
The bill will have to go through two more readings before it is passed. If it does become law, not only will the prime minister need to get his government’s approval, but also approval from members of the Knesset to withdraw from the Golan Heights. After that, he would need a majority of support from Israeli voters in a national referendum. However, if 80 members of the Knesset voted in favor of the withdrawal, that would rule out the need for a national referendum.
While Israelis continue to express their skepticism, Olmert’s dealings with Syria have now opened the door to European nations renewing contact with President Assad, a man who until just a few months ago felt the isolation of the West. Syria has been one of the “rogue states” that U.S. President George W. Bush has included in the “axis of evil.”
It is possible that Syria has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea, and if so, this needs to be known by the international community. Both North Korea and Syria need to be held accountable for any further nuclear proliferation.
HOT SPOTS
Gaza and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) are potential hot spots right now where, despite the fact that Israel is engaged in a temporary cease-fire with Hamas, a military conflict could erupt at any time. The tahadiya (period of calm) allows Hamas time to develop its political and military strategies.
Hamas may try to avoid violence and look to form a national unity government with the Palestinian Authority, giving clear directives that Hamas is ultimately in control.
Or, Hamas may try and wrest control from Fatah in the West Bank, usurping power from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas through violent clashes. This could cause Israel to enter into a new confrontation with terror groups.
Some Middle East analysts say that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accepted the tahadiya with Hamas to neutralize its influence in the region, while stopping the escalation of rocket attacks on Israel’s southern border communities to give the residents a respite. But, it is only a temporary solution until Israel finishes the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. That system will provide Israel with a way to stop incoming Kassam rockets launched from Gaza, and Katyusha rockets launched from Lebanon. Currently, the project has experienced some delays and isn’t expected to be completed until 2010.
Meanwhile, Matti Steinburg spoke of the reasoning behind the tactics of Hamas in Gaza and those of the President of Syria.
“I think, in a way, one of the reasons, maybe not the prime reason, that Hamas adapted the tahadiya is to distance itself from Iran, expecting a collision between Iran and Israel or Iran and the U.S. I think that is one of the causes of Syria’s Bashar Assad to have a process with Israel. He wants to distance himself, because the American behavior is unpredictable, as well as Israel’s behavior.”
CHANGES IN INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Israel and Lebanon in June. In Jerusalem, she spoke out firmly against Israeli housing construction in East Jerusalem. She also agreed with Lebanese claims that Israel must withdraw its troops from the Shaba Farms area, and try to resolve the dispute between Lebanon and Israel.
Rice’s efforts at achieving a more balanced approach in U.S. Middle East policy are telltale signs that America is forcing its hand in the region, but without the superpower influence it once had. Making noise, Rice was showing the Europeans that the U.S. is still in charge as the leading mediator between Israel and its neighbors in peace efforts. However, it is Europe that is coming to the forefront now with a much greater role in Middle East affairs.
SHELF AGREEMENTS AND DRAWER PLANS
In Israeli diplomatic efforts with the Palestinians there’s been a continued catch phrase used called, “a shelf agreement”. For example, while a certain framework of compromise over “land for peace” might have been concluded in the current interests of Israeli and Palestinian negotiators, it still may not be acceptable to public opinion at this time. So, the agreement is put on a shelf until a future government administration can take it off the shelf and rehash the agreement.
These kinds of shelf agreements can be detrimental to Israel because they can diplomatically lock a future Israeli government into a pattern of surrender to new peace partners. Olmert may have already committed Israel to far-reaching concessions as part of a completed shelf agreement, which then means the next Israeli coalition has to deal with these concessions at the bargaining table.
"Drawer plans" are what Israeli military officials use as defense strategies in conflicts that arise with their enemies. A plan is in a drawer that determines a certain course of action, with blueprints included on how to carry forth that action.
Drawer plans actually help military officials, especially when they have already gone through the Israeli government’s Security Cabinet approval. Without a drawer plan, IDF officers would have to present their proposals again, which would result in a slower response time to enemy aggression.
Instead, the plan that has already been approved sits in a drawer until needed, and at that time is taken out and enforced, especially when a quick strike against enemy targets is necessary.
STATISTICS ON CORRUPTION
According to the 2008 Democracy Index, 90% of Israelis believe the nation is tainted with corruption; and 51% think that to reach the top, politically, one must be corrupt. Only 49% of the public has confidence in the Israeli Supreme Court (down from 61%).
This indicates the level of frustration that is occurring within Israeli society regarding dishonest power brokers in Olmert’s coalition government; potential illegal dealings of Knesset members; and negative influences of Israeli interest groups resulting in biased judges.
Israelis believe that, today, politicians are more focused on keeping their own political power bases than they are in caring for the population, especially concerning the security needs and welfare of the state.
At least 25% of Israeli youth are currently trying to avoid the draft. They feel that the Olmert government abandoned three Israeli soldiers in the Lebanon War, not caring enough to do everything possible to return the POW’s to their families. This has hurt the level of trust between the government and its citizens. Only recently has the Israeli government finalized a prisoner swap with Hezbollah in Lebanon to bring two of the soldiers home in a deal to take place in mid-July. The other soldier is still being held by Hamas in Gaza.
The good news is that 89% of Israelis are still proud of their country and 83% want to keep living in the Jewish state.
PRAYER POINTS
CORRUPTION IN THE GOVERNMENT: Declare Psalm 1:1-2 over Israeli leaders.
Pray that the government will not enter into the way of the wicked nor walk in the path of the evil one.
Pray that political parties will remove their feet from paths of malicious intent. (Proverbs 4:14-15; 26-27).
SNARES AND TRAPS: Through American diplomatic pressure, Israel has entangled itself in an agreement that willingly has allowed the Palestinian Authority to deploy more of its troops in the West Bank. American and Israeli negotiators wanted to strengthen the leadership of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, hoping this would encourage the Palestinian population. But, the plan backfired. The troops have been infiltrated by Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, and the weapons are ending up in the hands of these terror groups.
Pray Psalm 91 over Israel -- that God will not allow her foot to stumble, despite international pressure.
Hamas would like to establish a puppet regime in Gaza and the West Bank, making it look like the Palestinian Authority is governing the land when, in fact, Hamas would have most of the political and military control behind the scenes. This would provide a mechanism allowing the international community to “do business” with Hamas and other terrorist entities.
This is a model of deception, already being used by Hezbollah in Lebanon to draw diplomats to its power base. The purpose is to coerce Western nations into indirectly negotiating with radical Islamic groups.
Pray that all snares and traps like this, set up by the enemy, will be revealed and obliterated by the Lord.
Pray for a miraculous speeding up of Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense system; that the project would be completed much earlier than expected.
Pray that while Israel’s skies currently are vulnerable to rocket attacks that citizens will “not be afraid of the terror by night nor of the arrow (missile) that flies by day.”
Pray that if rockets do fall they will not harm residents, but will land in open fields.
Pray that Israelis will be delivered from harm and live to see God’s dealings with wicked men. (Psalm 34:4; Jeremiah 15:21).
DISCERNMENT NEEDED: Pray that the Israeli government will not to be fooled by false hopes and will not be led into deception by Syria. If Olmert is playing with the process of peace, but without any intention of going through with peace plans, then pray Israel’s best interests are protected throughout the negotiations. (Psalm 33:10).
GEOGRAPHICAL WATCH: It’s important to keep a global prayer watch on the Straits of Hormuz, a place where Iran can make things difficult for international shipping and cause instability in that part of the Gulf region. Pray for a beefing-up of Western coalition forces in the Gulf in order to counter Iran’s aggressive actions.
TIMETABLES AND ALIYAH: The Bible mentions a time in Ezekiel Chapter 38:8-9 when, in the latter years, Persia (Iran), Ethiopia, Libya, and their allies (Russia?) will be called into action:
“In the distant future, you will swoop down on the land of Israel, which will be lying in peace after her recovery from war, and after the return of her people from many lands. You and all your allies – a vast and awesome horde – will roll down on them like a storm and cover the land like a cloud.” (New Living Translation).
This Ezekiel war, described throughout Chapters 38 and 39, seems to develop after another war occurs on Israeli soil. And, the Ezekiel war takes place after the return of Jews from many lands.
While there has been Jewish immigration from the nations, there are still millions yet to come. Anti-Semitism is causing Jews throughout the world to consider a move to Israel, and many are buying property in the Holy Land as a place of possible refuge in the future.
But, the facts remain that in 2007 Israel had its lowest year of immigration from the nations in the past 20 years. According to the Bible, Jews from the four corners of the earth will return to the land of their inheritance and dwell safely in Israel. We can expect many more to return before the Ezekiel war breaks out.
Certainly, few Jewish people have returned to the land of their forefathers from Western nations despite Biblical promises. Please pray and declare that Aliyah (Jewish immigration to the land of Israel) will dramatically increase this year, according to Isaiah 43:5-6 and Isaiah 49:12.
UNHOLY ALLIANCES: There are signs of unholy alliances growing stronger, with Russia and Libya buffeting Israel in the UN Security Council, and Russia arming Iran with weapons and military technology.
Reports also indicate that Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, may have activated sleeper cells in the West, with terror operatives trying to infiltrate Canada, America, and Africa. The concern is that they will attempt to attack Jewish targets throughout the world, avenging the death of arch terrorist Imad Mughniyeh who was assassinated in February 2008 in Damascus. Hezbollah holds Israel accountable for the death.
Pray Psalm 35 over Israel and Jewish people throughout the world, asking God to contend with those who contend with His people.
Pray that the Lord will rescue the Jewish nation from lions; from those who truly do not speak peace but devise deceitful schemes.
Ask the Lord to take hold of shield and buckler and show His mighty strength and protection over Israel, pushing back demonic forces that want to unleash their aggressions against the state.
Declare confusion in the enemy camp, and release the Angel of the Lord to pursue Israel’s foes.
Rejoice with the Jewish people in their salvation and victory over those who would try to hurt them.
Shout for joy and be glad in favoring Israel’s righteous cause -- a covenant people in a covenant land under the rule of the God of Israel and His Messiah.
Proclaim that the Lord be magnified in prospering and defending the nation.
Pray that Israel will go up and possess the land that God has set before the nation, without fear and without discouragement. (Deuteronomy 1:21).