SITUATION ANALYSIS -- V

Jerusalem, Israel


TRANSITIONAL TIMES IN ISRAEL

Global change and turbulence, in political and economic spheres, have been dominating media headlines, taking the focus off Israel's political situation which has remained critical since the summer of 2008. At that time Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's political career was shaken by accusations of corruption, forcing him to step down as head of the Kadima party, making way for a new Prime Minister to emerge in Israel.

Tzippi Livni was elected to lead the Kadima party, form a new government, and become the second female Prime Minister in Israel's history. But, she proved unsuccessful in pulling together a wide coalition of partners from Israel's various political parties. Now, Israelis are looking towards new elections in February 2009.

The current lack of strong leadership at the helm of the Israeli government is a sign of weakness that is allowing Israel's enemies to consolidate and formulate new strategies of aggression.

The vacuum in Israel, politically, has already caused Fatah and Hamas to look for greater common ground. Hoping to reconcile and become united, with the help of Egyptian mediators, these two groups could be looking at the possibility of forming a national unity government in 2009. (A reconciliation conference is expected to take place in Egypt in November 2008). This would undermine Israel's efforts to keep Hamas isolated within the global community.

Some analysts say the current effort to unite the two groups is to the benefit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who is looking for a way to curry favor with all Palestinians and stay in power after his presidency expires in January 2009.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY AND TERROR

During this current period, when U.S. leadership is also in transition and there is less American mediation efforts on the Middle East track, Hamas also has little incentive to try and negotiate a prisoner swap with Israel. Such a swap would result in the release of Israel's P.O.W. Gilad Shalit who has been in captivity for more than two years.

Currently, Hamas and Israel share a temporary cease fire, but it is only in effect until December 2008.

Israel's present political vacuum could embolden Hamas and other terror groups to look to the first six months of 2009 as a time for stepped up attacks on Israel, especially in the West Bank and Jerusalem. (Since this summer, there have been eight terror attacks in the Jerusalem area). Furthermore, Hamas could try and renew rocket fire from Gaza into Israeli towns in the Negev.

The peace and quiet that Gazans have experienced during the current cease fire between Hamas and Israel has given a boost to Hamas. The group's efforts to supply the Gazan population with needed resources of food, shelter, and health services have solidified their political and military control over the area.

HEBRON

Meanwhile, the recent deployment of hundreds of Palestinian policemen into Hebron was approved by Labor party head and current Defense Minister Ehud Barak. This is Barak's way of boosting Mahmoud Abbas' popularity in the West Bank. (Some in Israel think that by helping Abbas stay in power, they are keeping at bay more extreme Palestinian elements that would like to seize the presidency).

However, the small Hebron enclave of settlers, outnumbered and constantly threatened by a much larger Palestinian population, claim that the recent deployment is a recipe for disaster. While the extra numbers of Palestinian police are supposedly cracking down on Hamas and also on crime in the city, the settlers say that they, themselves, are now in greater danger.

HOT SPOT

Look to Hebron becoming a hot spot in 2009, ignited by less of an IDF presence in the area (therefore, less protection for the settlers living there), and greater efforts by the PA police to take control over this ancient historical and biblical city.

These changes in Hebron could upset the delicate balance between Jews and Palestinians living there.

Hebron is considered the largest city in the West Bank, located 30 kilometers outside of Jerusalem. The Jews of Hebron protect the Cave of the Patriarchs where Abraham, Sarah, Isaac, Rebecca, Jacob and Leah are buried.

King David, in the Bible, ruled over Hebron. (2 Samuel 2:11), and Jewish claims to the city are strong.

PRAYER POINTS:

Pray for the protection of the Jewish state during this vulnerable time when the government is in a transitional period and there is no strong leader at the helm.

Pray that God will keep Israel's enemies from being able to penetrate borders, cities, and towns during this political vacuum in the land.

Pray for special protection for the settlers of Hebron.

Pray that Godly leaders will emerge who have courage, strength, vision, and high moral standards; leaders who will govern with integrity.

Pray that righteousness and justice will prevail in the land.

Declare 2 Chronicles 7:14 over Israel today!


"SO SHALL THEY FEAR THE NAME OF THE LORD FROM THE WEST, AND HIS GLORY FROM THE RISING OF THE SUN; WHEN THE ENEMY COMES IN LIKE A FLOOD, THE SPIRIT OF THE LORD WILL LIFT UP A STANDARD AGAINST HIM." Isaiah 59:19