SITUATION ANALYSIS -- VII

Jerusalem, Israel

TERROR IN MUMBAI

The recent Al Qaeda style terrorist attack on Mumbai, India was a coordinated event by a para-military terrorist group with Pakistani origins. The well-prepared terrorists broke all rules of civility in shooting randomly at any target, including innocent bystanders at a rail station, a restaurant, and two hospitals.

The terrorists finally settled on murdering foreign tourists at two high-class hotels and a Chabad Jewish Center in Mumbai, where they sought to kill Americans, Brits, and Israelis. In the end they managed to massacre almost 200 foreigners and nationals standing in the way of their destructive path.

Worse yet was that this large-scale terror operation caught international intelligence agents off-guard in an era of globalization where counter-terrorism information sharing has reached unprecedented levels across borders.

So, how could this highly coordinated massive terrorist attack occur under the nose of these expert security personnel? While officials will look to answer this question and others in the coming days, we can expect even more transparency between global intelligence agencies in the future.

Israel and India already have close defense ties and Israel trains India military units. In the Mumbai incident, Israel claimed that Indian counter-terrorist forces, while well-trained, engaged the terrorists too soon. The Indian commando units should have secured the main area where hostages were taken, and gained control on the ground, before exchanging fire with the terrorists.

In the future, Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) will be sending expert Israeli commandos to help Indian forces become more skilled in urban warfare and counter-terrorism.

PRAYER POINTS:

No matter how states prepare for such terrorist attacks, there is still an enemy that looms larger; one that will try and create havoc, death, and destruction whenever and wherever he chooses.

• This shaking of nations will increase as darkness increases on the earth, until only eternal things will be left. (Hebrews 12:27). Since we are receiving a Kingdom that cannot be destroyed, let us be thankful and please God by worshipping Him with holy fear and awe. For our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29).

• From east to west – praise the name of the Lord. For the Lord is high above the nations; His glory is far greater than the heavens. (Psalm 113:3. See also verses 5-8).

• Pray for the families that have lost loved ones; that they would be comforted by the Lord.

• Pray for those still in the hospital in critical condition, wounded from the attacks. Pray that they would be healed, and that great testimonies of miracles would flow out of Mumbai.

• Pray for greater diligence on the part of God’s people, to stay close to the Lord in these critical days; being vigilant in the faith; listening continually for His will and direction; protected by the full armor of God in Ephesians Chapter 6; with prayers for family and friends that extend towards Israel and the Jewish people.

DECEPTION & POLITICAL GAMES

Despite the evidence from Israel and the U.S. that Syria may be harboring a clandestine military nuclear program, with the help of North Korea; those facts are now being suppressed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The IAEA has already admitted to finding traces of processed uranium at the site where Israel allegedly bombed a nuclear reactor on September 6, 2007. The U.S. has declared that the nuclear reactor, almost completed, could have produced plutonium, but Syria denies running such a secret nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the IAEA, still angered by being out-of-the-loop when Israeli intelligence discovered the site in coordination with the U.S., now claims that evidence about that site has been hard to find. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei claims this limits the IAEA from further proving Syrian nuclear activities. He said that investigations have been hampered because his agency found only limited satellite images available. Syria has also been uncooperative with the IAEA denying inspectors access to any of the sites they have requested to observe.

At the same time, the IAEA, along with the tacit agreement of the U.S. and other nations, approved a deal which will provide IAEA expertise and equipment to Syria to build a power-producing nuclear reactor. In other words, the IAEA will now be sharing sensitive nuclear information with Syria that could help Syria build a supposedly safe civilian powered reactor!

Why are the nations, and the IAEA, cooperating with Syria when they believe there is evidence that Syria is hiding a military nuclear program?

The answer is that there has been a change in global diplomacy. Those nations that have been formerly labeled rogue states, but where there might be a slight chance that they could be reformed and become part of a western coalition of moderate Arab states, are now being pursued by certain world leaders. European officials, as well as Israel, have felt it would be better to bring Syria out of isolation in the hope that Syria might be pulled out of the axis of evil that includes Iran.

If Syrian leader Bashar Assad is willing to kick terrorist groups out of Syria, decrease its strategic cooperation with Iran, and limit its military and political control over Lebanon, then global leaders are prepared to give Syria an opportunity to join the international community, including financial and diplomatic advantages that other regional Middle East states enjoy.

The problem is that international leaders are listening to words and not seeing deeds that show any kind of softening on Syria’s part that would indicate a willingness to stop supporting terrorist groups and terrorist states. If anything, Syria is advancing as a rogue state, adding new sophisticated weapons to its military arsenal, provided by Russia. Syria is becoming more capable of fighting a future war against Israel, especially if peace talks fail and Israel will not give up the Golan Heights.

Lebanon is overrun by Syrian intelligence operatives that influence decisions in the Lebanese government and prop up Hezbollah's para-military army within the state. At the same time, Lebanon has recently increased diplomatic cooperation with Syria. Lebanese leaders have also signed a five-year security pact with Iran. Defense cooperation between Iran and Syria has now been extended to Lebanon, which Syria still considers part of Greater Syria.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has tripled its force since the Lebanon War of 2006, with 42,000 rockets on-hand that supposedly can reach Israel’s nuclear facilities in Dimona.

While this strategic military cooperation is going on between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, including the training and arming of terrorist groups within the region, European officials, especially France and England are preparing the ground for greater diplomatic cooperation with Syria in the future. This move is expected to encourage American President-Elect Barack Obama to engage in the diplomatic exchange so that the U.S. can keep its leadership role in the Middle East.

Recently, British Foreign Secretary David Milband visited Syrian President Bashar Assad, encouraging a comprehensive Middle East peace deal, which would include Syria. The UK has worked on building a partnership with Syria during the past 18 months, working for comprehensive peace, security and stability in the region. Miliband denied that Syria was building a nuclear reactor for military purposes.

PRAYER POINTS:

• Pray that the nations would not fall into deception regarding Syria’s role as a rogue state and part of an axis of evil in the Middle East. There is no indication that Syria’s President Bashar Assad has any intention of pulling away from Iran, nor of its proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon. If anything, Syria is building closer ties with Iran, Lebanon, and Russia (who supplies Syria with arms and training), as well as terrorist groups in the region.

• It appears that to-date Syria is not going through a change in strategic defense thinking. Pray that every evil plan within the Syria, Lebanese, Iranian, and Russian government would be exposed, reported fully, and seen clearly by the international community. (See Psalms Chapters 35 and 37).

• Pray that the plans of men will be brought to the light according to Luke 12:2-3, which states, “For there is nothing covered that will not be revealed, nor hidden that will not be known. Therefore, whatever you have spoken in the dark will be heard in the light, and what you have spoken in the ear in inner rooms will be proclaimed on the housetops.”

• Pray that the Lord will judge the wicked deeds of evil powers in the Middle East. Cry out for righteousness to guard this region; for all wickedness to cease, especially in the halls of power in governments. Proclaim that the Lord will put down His enemies according to Hebrews 10:13.

• Declare Psalm 108:5, “Be exalted O God, above the highest heavens. May Your glory shine over all the earth.” Through God, Israel shall do valiantly, for it is He who shall tread down her enemies. (See verse 13).

PALESTNIAN CONTROL OVER KEY WEST BANK CITIES

October 23, 1998, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat signed the Wye River Memorandum, a political accord that gave the Palestinians full control over seven West Bank cities. It also gave the Palestinians shared control with Israel over other cities in the territories, such as Hebron.

Since the beginning of 2008, current Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has encouraged the deployment of newly trained Palestinian troops into Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, and in December, Bethlehem. (They are already deployed in Ramallah and Jericho years ago during the implementation of the Oslo Accords). Hundreds of Palestinian troops, currently training in Jordan, are expected to be deployed in other cities in 2009 such as Tulkarm and Kalkilya. These cities are included in the Wye River agreement.

Implementing the new deployment plan has been under the direction of Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, who has expanded Palestinian troops into these cities with the knowledge and cooperation of international leaders in the Quartet (UN, EU, U.S. and Russia).

This plan, plus the recent release of another 250 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, is all an effort at boosting the popularity of current Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who wants to keep his presidential powers beyond the January 2009 deadline. That is when his presidential rule will be challenged by Hamas. Israel is concerned that Hamas might try to take over the West Bank in early 2009, adding to its successful take-over of the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Israeli officials also believe that this plan will ensure that if and when a Palestinian state is established, the new Palestinian government will have a functioning and effective security force in place.

But, it’s clear that these same officials do not know if the newly deployed Palestinian troops can effectively stop a Hamas takeover, let alone protect Israel. And, if Hamas cannot be stopped, what will happen to this Palestinian force that has been trained to police these cities?

Moreover, if feuding Hamas and Fatah groups end up reconciling with one another, will this not unite the West Bank and Gaza, and won’t these troops become part of one large Palestinian army that fights against Israel in the future?

It’s inconceivable that Israel would trust Fatah, a terrorist group that has now become an official Palestinian army. Even though currently Fatah is helping Israel to crackdown on Hamas, both Hamas and Fatah are Palestinian “brothers”, and the perception that Fatah would continue its loyalties towards Israel in a more permanent way is idealistic thinking. Eventually, the Palestinians will unite and their common enemy will be the state of Israel, not each other.

PRAYER POINTS:

• Israel is under the delusion that a two-state solution is possible. God intends that there be one nation in the land that includes the mountains of Israel, and that it not be a divided land. (See Ezekiel 37:22). Pray for Israel to see and embrace this reality despite world pressures.

• Pray according to Ezekiel 37:26-28, which describes the true covenant of peace that the Lord wants to have with Israel; not like the covenant of peace they are trying to establish now, in the natural, with the Palestinians and Arab states.

• Pray that the mountain of radical Islamic terror be removed from Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and from the hearts of Palestinians living on the high places in Israel. (See Mark 11:23-24).
• Take heed, watch and pray; for you do not know when the time is that God’s judgments will come upon the earth (Mark 13:33).

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