SITUATION ANALYSIS -- XVII

Jerusalem, Israel

MIDDLE EAST ARMS BUILD-UP AND DEFENSE COOPERATION

While the U.S. and Israel attempt to move forward on a diplomatic track towards a comprehensive peace deal in the Middle East, a military track is also advancing, with some of the largest coordinated exercises ever to take place in the region.

As U.S. anti-missile defense systems make their way overseas, Israel is refining and finishing off the final touches on its own systems, which are meant to intercept short, middle, and long range missiles if they are launched against Israel in the future.

ARMS SALES

A massive arms build-up in the Middle East is also taking place, as Iran delivers more sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah through Syria; and, as Russia becomes one of the biggest arms dealers to both nations. Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak is keeping a keen eye on the delivery of weapons systems, making sure that the balance of power in the Middle East is not tipped in favor of Israel’s enemies. Russia has been warned not to deliver the S-300 advanced anti-missile defense system to Iran or to any country that is hostile towards Israel. Israeli officials are also watching to see if Russia tries to deliver an advanced jet fighter system to Syria, which would be an unacceptable move, according to the Jewish State. The international community can be assured that Israel will figure out a way to wipe out the systems before they are ever operational. This alone could start a new war in the Middle East.

ISRAEL’S HOME FRONT PREPARATIONS

Without an end in sight to stopping Iran’s nuclear pursuit, preparations are being made on Israel’s home front for what may be a long drawn out conflict should all diplomatic efforts fail, including crippling UN or EU sanctions against the Islamic state.

As of this writing, U.S. naval missile ships have arrived in Israel in preparation for a joint missile defense exercise to take place in October 2009. The highest ranking officials in both the IDF and the Pentagon have been holding frequent meetings in what has become a strengthened Israeli-U.S. defense cooperation pact. While America is not anxious to broadcast its military partnership with Israel, it has been reported that the U.S. plans to deploy ships in the Mediterranean and Red Sea capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Israel already has an advanced X-Band radar system given to the Jewish State by former U.S. President George W. Bush.

Meanwhile, in June 2009, Israel conducted a nationwide emergency drill, setting off alarm systems throughout the land. It was a civil-defense exercise in which citizens were instructed to go to bomb shelters within minutes of hearing the sounds of sirens. Schools educated their students in how to protect themselves in the event of war.

In January 2010, the National Emergency Authority plans to hold another nationwide drill, this time simulating a biological attack against Israel. The IDF Medical Corps, along with the IDF Home Front Command, police, and rescue squads will participate in these drills.

In August 2009, journalists were invited to observe simulation exercises at an IDF medical base in Tel Aviv. In both indoor and outdoor simulations, the media witnessed what IDF medics do in emergency situations in urban warfare. A Hollywood-type set on the base was built to look like a street in Gaza City. Graffiti and drawings of Islamic martyrs were plastered on the walls. There were narrow alleyways and bombed out cars strewn along the streets. To the sound of Islamic holy prayers, gunshots could be heard. In the simulation, IDF soldiers shot and killed a “terrorist”. As they attempted to secure the parameters, they too were “wounded” on the battlefield. Medics were called in to treat the “wounded”.

According to IDF Sergeant Arnold Starkowtiz, an instructor of the IDF medical development team, “In the real situation, the alleys are much closer together, and sometimes it is very hard to walk through a street.” When asked about the potential for booby trapping against IDF soldiers, he replied, “The forces take a lot of precautionary steps when they move into a situation like that. There is always a tracker or someone who walks at the head of the field, always looking out and always being aware.” The IDF medical school trains soldiers for the worst case scenario. Their training at the base helps them save lives on the battlefield.

“The first thing we do is finish the fighting. Before you start treating the wounded, each medic is a soldier, a warrior. He first finishes the combat. So, if there is a group of terrorists, the soldier would first neutralize the threat, and only then start treating the wounded,” he said.

The medical base is one of the biggest training bases in Israel. Every year they train 2,300-2,500 medics. Most of them are in combat units. These simulation exercises are another attempt by Israeli defense forces to prepare the public for future outbreaks of war. The IDF plans to begin handing out gas masks to the general public by November 2009. Most Israelis do not think gas masks will help in a biological and chemical attack. They are more inclined to believe that Israel’s nuclear arsenal is enough of a deterrence to keep Israel’s enemies from considering a non-conventional attack on the Jewish State.

THE ENEMY’S WEAPONS

Both Syria and Hezbollah reportedly have chemical munitions factories, and Syria is developing biological capability. Syria has long-range Scud missiles that could carry a chemical or biological payload. Hezbollah has been stocking its deadly chemicals since December 2008, and recently received chemical weapons and protective gear from Iran. Syria is upgrading its missile, rocket, air defense, and antitank capabilities. Iran has reportedly upgraded its ballistic missiles to satellite launchers capable of eventually launching nuclear weapons into the atmosphere. Iran is on a fast-paced track with North Korea to find a way of putting a nuclear payload on a long-range missile. Iran could opt, instead, to put one on a short-range missile and ship it to Hezbollah or to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is now boasting of having 80,000 rockets aimed at Israel. At the same time, Hamas continues to smuggle sophisticated arms into underground tunnels in the Gaza Strip, increasing its weapons arsenals.

KEEPING A QUALITATIVE EDGE

While the Middle East arms build-up is continually evaluated by Israeli defense officials, the Jewish State is looking to America to help supply it with the most advanced weapons systems in the world. This includes a potential contract for 20-25 U.S. F-35 Joint Strike Jet Fighters. Israel is arguing with U.S. defense officials about wanting complete technical control over the electronic systems on the plane. So far, the U.S. has refused to allow Israel that flexibility. The cost of each plane has gone up to $100 million. Israel will continue to look for the best systems available to keep a qualitative edge over its hostile Middle East neighbors.

To that end, Israel is also trying to bolster air support to its ground forces for future military clashes in Lebanon and Gaza. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has been flight testing a new version of the Black Hawk utility helicopter that is equipped with offensive air-to-surface missile launchers. The helicopter has been fitted with a rapid fire cannon. Israel is looking to American defense industries to upgrade six additional Apache attack helicopters.

THE IRANIAN THREAT AND ISRAEL’S RESPONSE

While military preparations continue, some Israeli officials have denied that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran. Some argue that Iran will not have nuclear capability for 3-5 years. Others say that Iran will have that capability in 6-9 months. While not all agree on the same timetable of Iran’s potential to “go nuclear”, most Israeli officials do agree on one crucial point.... They do not think that Iran wants to engage in a direct war with Israel.

Major General (Ret.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu, former Commander of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), spoke at the World Summit on Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya. He said, “States like Iran do it in a different way. If you look at the Syrians, they took advantage of having Lebanon next to them; having Hezbollah next to them; and, indirectly they launched a terror attack against Israel; which means, they stayed clean.” According to Eliyahu, 90% of the terror attacks in Lebanon were Syrian initiatives.

Eliyahu claims that the goal of the Iranians is to finance the terrorists, to politically back them, and to build a nuclear weapon. In doing so, Iran inspires terrorists to attack Israel. But, Eliyahu does not think Iran is interested in direct military action against the Jewish State. Instead, Iran will look to continue using its proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas) to accomplish its goals. “They want to play double face – a legal government in the international society; and, on the other hand, supporting terrorism against Israel and other states.”

As 2010 approaches, Israelis expect to see more jet fighters going for long practice runs over the Mediterranean Sea. They also expect to participate in more national emergency drills that will require them to clean out their bomb shelters and stack them with necessary supplies. And, they expect to hear more news stories about Israel’s military track than the current diplomatic track that seems to be going nowhere.

PRAYER POINTS:

(1) Pray that the God of Israel will mobilize His heavenly troops to fight Israel's enemies.

(2) Pray that Israel will continue to keep its qualitative edge over its enemies in the Middle East region.

(3) Declare that "He who keeps Israel shall neither slumber nor sleep." And, that the Lord shall preserve Israel from all evil, (according to Psalm 121, verses 4 and 7). Continue to intercede for Israel's protection from enemy forces that want to attack the Jewish State.

(4) Proclaim Israel's readiness through God's training of the IDF and IAF, according to Psalm 18:34, which states: “He teaches my hands to make war, so that my arms can bend a bow of bronze.”

(5) Pray for Israel to have favor with the U.S. Defense Department and that all difficulties will be worked out regarding the purchase of American F-35 jet fighter planes. Pray that Israel can use these planes to adequately defend its forces in the future.

(6) Pray for the homefront in Israel to be prepared, and ask the Lord to give insight to those who oversee the civilian population.

(7) Pray that God will deliver the nation from any snare or any trap presented by international leaders who do not have Israel's best interest in mind. (See Psalm 83).

(8) Ask God to raise up intercessors who pray night and day for Israel during times of peace and times of war.