SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 150

Jerusalem, Israel

MARCH 2020 PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Nations

Israel has a parliamentary system of government, similar to European countries like Great Britain. However, there are not just two or three political parties that are vying for votes in every Israeli election. Instead, there are usually two main political parties running in the election, plus several smaller parties. Often, the two main parties do not get enough votes to form a government. Therefore, the smaller parties sometimes yield great power, as they can end up determining what political party and what leader will be able to form and rule over the next government coalition.  

There are 120 seats in Israel’s Knesset (Parliament). The head of the political party that gets the most votes is usually asked by Israel’s president to form the next government. (But, this is not always the case). The head of that political party must form a coalition with at least 61 seats in order for the government to survive. And, they have about a month to do so.

In this recent election, the Likud party received 36 seats. That party had already formed a right-wing block with several of the smaller parties, which totaled 58 seats.  (At first, soon after the votes were counted, it was reported there would be 60 seats in that block. But, once all votes were counted, it changed to 58 seats). There are still votes to be counted, and the final list will be out on Monday, March 9^th, on the eve of the Fast of Esther.

Based on the popular vote, the Likud party received more votes than any other party. Therefore, it would appear that Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin would ask Benjamin Netanyahu to form the next government, even though his right-wing block is three seats short of being able to form a coalition.

To-date, the Likud has been seeking political leaders from other parties who would consider defecting to the Likud party in order to get the three votes needed for a parliamentary majority. This is problematic.

Furthermore, President Rivlin is now a force to contend with. In the last election, he by-passed some of the timetables, and tried urgently, to get a government formed quickly. He went through the various protocols of the law swiftly, but in the end, the political parties were not able to agree to come together with enough seats in one block to form a 61 seat majority government coalition. 

After this recent election, Rivlin is taking his time. Benjamin Netanyahu does not have time on his hands. On March 17^th, Netanyahu’s indictment trial begins. He had hoped to be invited by Rivlin to form the next government, and have it pulled together before that trial date. His lawyers can ask for an extension of his trial date, but it would probably only be a minor delay… still not enough time to form a successful government before the indictment trial begins.

Meanwhile, the second political party to get the highest number of votes in this current election is Blue and White. They garnered 33 seats in the Knesset. With a left-wing block, they would, likely, receive about 47 seats total. They could not successfully form a coalition. 

The Joint Arab List is the next largest political party in the Knesset, with 15 seats. No Israeli leader will ask them to sit in a government coalition. This is because there are members in the Joint Arab List party that are against the state of Israel. Some of the Israeli Arab political leaders do not believe that the state of Israel should exist.  Yet, they have voting power and are able to sit in the Knesset.

The head of the Blue and White political party, Benny Gantz, wants to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government coalition. Gantz, himself, cannot form a coalition without the Joint Arab List being part of it… which he refuses to do based on claiming he is a Zionist (in favor of Israel remaining the nation state of the Jewish People). But, Gantz can ask the Joint Arab List to join him in passing new legislation to oust Netanyahu! 

What Gantz, reportedly, is planning to do is to bring a new law before the new Knesset members, saying that it is illegal for a sitting prime minister to form a new government while under indictment.

According to an advisor at the Knesset, the new members of the 23^rd Knesset will be installed on March 16^th… one day before Netanyahu’s indictment trial is set to begin (if there is not a delay).

Apparently, if all the members of the Knesset that represent the left-wing block, including the Joint Arab List, would agree to pass this special legislation, Gantz would have the votes needed to unseat Netanyahu, legislatively. 

So, while Gantz would not have enough MK’s to form a new government coalition (because he is unwilling to include the Joint Arab List), he would have enough MK’s who would help him get Netanyahu out of office.

Here are three possible scenarios of how a new government coalition could come together. One of these scenarios would favor Netanyahu.

(1)    Three MK’s would need to quickly defect from other political parties to join Likud. Then Netanyahu could go to President Rivlin and announce he has the 61 seat majority needed to form the next government. Again, with possible delays on the part of Rivlin, and Netanyahu’s indictment hearing coming up soon, this is an unlikely scenario. Fervent prayer is needed!

(2)    Rivlin could go straight to the new Knesset members and give them the mandate to form the next government with whatever MK they think could do the job. This gives members of the Likud party a way around endorsing Netanyahu to be the main person to form the next government coalition. The Likud might work out an arrangement with the Blue and White Party to form a unity government with a rotation of the prime minister’s position. In the time that it would take for this scenario to be successful, the Likud party would need to have snap internal elections and select Netanyahu’s replacement. This scenario could happen, in what some say is an “undemocratic” process. It ignores the popular vote of support, which clearly shows Netanyahu as the favored one to try and form the next government coalition.

(3)    Benny Gantz could introduce the bill in the Knesset, which would declare that it is illegal for a sitting prime minister under indictment to run for prime minister. This might be successfully blocked by the Speaker of the House, Yuli Edelstein, who could try and delay a vote on this new legislation. 

If Gantz successfully stops Netanyahu from forming a coalition, the Likud could remain loyal to Netanyahu, and not call for snap Likud internal elections. In that scenario, the Knesset would be dissolved, and Israelis would go to a fourth round of elections. But, if the bill passes, then Netanyahu would not be allowed to run a fourth campaign for the premiership. 

The Israeli public is well aware of the accusations of corruption charges against Netanyahu. Based on the election results, they probably concluded that his ability to run a stable government, and his many accomplishments, especially in foreign relations and security, were more important to them than consideration of the charges brought against him. 

However, those from Israel’s political parties, representing the center-left wing, have one goal only, and that is to get rid of Netanyahu.

PRAYER POINTS:

(1)    That all back-door deals, to prevent the formation of an Israeli government based on the popular vote, will be brought to the surface and exposed, in Jesus’ name. 

(2)    That anything “undemocratic” will be prevented from occurring in the Israeli political system. 

(3)    That there will be reforms in the Israeli electoral system which define that the political party receiving the “popular vote”, will automatically be assigned the task of trying to form the next government.

(4)    That Netanyahu will receive the favor and respect due him (innocent until proven guilty) by all Knesset members, government leaders, judges, lawyers, and the general public… in Jesus’ name.

A word about the coronavirus… In Israel, they are calling the coronavirus a “pandemic”. So far, there are no deaths in the land, and only about 20 people have been diagnosed with the virus. However, there are 50-100,000 Israelis who are in self-quarantine. This mainly has to do with those Israelis who might have been in the area of a visiting tourist that returned their nation and only then found out they had the virus; or, those Israelis returning from a trip where they were traveling in an area that now is restricted by the Israeli government. 

People here are saying that the fear among Israelis is greater than the virus, itself!

Overcoming fear is the first step. Stepping out in faith comes next.

PRAYER POINTS:

(1)    Is this a time of pulling away to be closer to the Lord?  Self-evaluation. Read Psalm 91 in the Passion Translation.  Draw close to Him that He might draw close to you! Pray this for those living in Israel, as you pray this for your nation, as well. 

(2)    There have been measures by believers on a global scale, to fast and pray, according to   2 Chronicles 7:14. With the upcoming Fast of Esther, it’s a good time to intercede for Israel to heal as a nation… the Body of Messiah in the land; the political leadership in Jerusalem; and, Israelis who are not following after God’s heart. 

(3)    It’s a time of worldwide upheaval, both on a health level and financial level. Read Psalm 46, and seek to find the stillness in Him. He is a quiet fortress for Israel, for the nations, and for all of us! Esther sought to save her people even if it meant perishing. She called forth the intercessors to pray for her as she took steps to initiate contact with the King… for only He could deliver her people. (See Romans 8:31). 

(4)    Declare over all those who are in fear, the warfare prayer of Ephesians 6:10-19. (Also,  Isaiah 41:10; Isaiah 41:13-14; Isaiah 12:2; Psalm 29:11;  1 John 4:18; Romans 8:15; 2 Timothy 1:7).