SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 210

 

Jerusalem, Israel

November 17, 2023  PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Nations

 

THE CONTINUED WAR IN GAZA:

After the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre of Israel’s southern communities, the first phase of the war included fighting Hamas terrorists outside the Gaza border (in Israeli territory). This was followed by Israel unleashing its air power on the northern Gaza Strip. Now, the north has been successfully divided off from the south by IDF forces. Most Gazans have moved to the southern part of the Gaza Strip. On October 27, 2023, Israel began its second phase of the war, sending IDF ground troops into Gaza.

 

HAMAS BATTALIONS:

Calculations by the IDF is that 5,000 Hamas murderers were involved in the massacres of Israelis on October 7^th. All the rest of the Hamas terrorists, approximately 15,000 of them, were spread through 24 Hamas battalions.  Out of the 24 battalions, 14 of them still remain in the Gaza Strip. Israel has taken out the rest of them.  Israel achieved a “decisive victory” over the 10 battalions the IDF eliminated.

Hamas has not been annihilated. They are still active, launching rockets against Israeli towns and cities, though less often. Hamas is continuing to hit Israeli ground forces in the northern Gaza Strip, but not as a military terror unit. They are working as individuals, with RPG’s, and shooting at Israeli tanks.

Shifa hospital has become a symbol in this war. The IDF has evidence that Hamas used human shields in Shifa and other Gaza hospitals, and hid beneath the hospital compounds in basements. Israel entered Shifa hospital to provide this proof to the media, especially that Hamas held hostages under that hospital area.

Gaza City has been a tense area with lots of underground tunnels. The IDF has conquered it.

 

THE IDF’S MILITARY CAMPAIGNS:

The military campaign right now is still in the northern part of Gaza. The first and second campaigns are expected to last until the first part of January 2024.  

The third campaign will be focused on stand-off capabilities, and ground raids, in order to complete the military dimension of the war. The aim is the destruction of Hamas leadership, and the dismantling of the rest of the Hamas battalions which are mainly in southern Gaza. The IDF still has a long way to go to achieve its goals, and Khan Yunis, a city in the southern Gaza Strip, is still in its sights.

The third campaign will include a different IDF strategy, employing different capabilities. Israel is leaving the details vague. IDF officials know where the Hamas leadership is located, and they are determined to eventually fulfill their targets in this war, especially going after Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.

There will be a fourth campaign connected to this war. It will involve rebuilding and reconstructing Gaza. It’s a different mandate, which will include other nations, not Israel. There will be strategies to provide humanitarian aid in the fourth campaign, as well as overall leadership of Gaza, which will include, for a time, an Arab force of some kind. Israel has insisted on having overall security control of Gaza.

 

ISRAEL’S PARTNERSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES:

Cooperation with the U.S. has been unprecendented in regard to many aspects of the war. American forces have been deployed in the Middle East, to deter Iran and Hezbollah. Tons of U.S. advanced military equipment and arms have been provided to Israel. The U.S is in the region to serve America’s interests, which sometimes clash with Israel’s interests.

 

THE HOSTAGES:

Israeli families are losing patience with the Israeli government over the fate of their loved ones. If there is, suddenly, a hostage deal, military officials say it will create a temporary pause in the fighting. Hamas wants a cease fire, but Israel has said it would only be temporary. 

The plight of the hostages is a very difficult and complex problem for Israel. It is a triangle of tensions involving: (1) Israel’s goal to hit very high targets at a very high level. (2) Israel’s operational concepts to eliminate those high targets. (3) In the midst of Israel’s military campaign, there are on-going negotiations to free the hostages. It’s an intensive, constant, pressure on the Israeli government and armed forces. PRAYER is needed!

Hamas wants to use the hostages as pawns to achieve their goals:  

·        *To get Palestinian prisoners out of jail.

 *A strategy to stop the war in order for Hamas to survive. With a pause, it gives them time to supply their military capabilities. They want fuel to run their operations in the tunnels. They want refreshment time outside the tunnels. And, they want food that will last them 40 days beneath the ground, isolated from what is happening above them.

 Holding the hostages is their strategy of survival. Hamas has threatened to kill some of the hostages if Israel does not agree to their demands. Sinwar knows that Israel’s combat capabilities will crush his men, so he wants to bring relief to them in the underground tunnels. He needs a ceasefire to enable him to do this. Whether it is called a “pause” or a “temporary ceasefire,” either way, its to Israel’s disadvantage. Yet, the freeing of the hostages is a priority of the Israeli people.

 

ISRAEL’S NORTHERN BORDER WITH LEBANON:

One of Israel’s goals on the northern border has been to push back Hezbollah’s Radwan forces, so that Israeli citizens can return to their homes, safely. However, Israel’s main target is Beirut where the heads of Iran’s proxy forces are located.

The Radwan Regiment is a special operational force of Hezbollah that Israel is contending with on the northern border. Its main goal is to infiltrate the territory of Israel, with a specific focus on northern Israel, expanding into the Galilee. These forces wanted to carry out a similar attack as Hamas did to Israel’s southern communities on October 7th.

Iran’s original plan was for its Axis of Resistance to strike, simultaneously, in a multi-front war against Israel. Iran delayed, but Hamas decided to strike on its own. To the disappointment of Hamas, Hezbollah did not join its secret attack on Israel, Oct. 7th. Hamas then thought that by providing such a victory as a catastrophe in Israel, it would cause all Iranian Axis of Resistance forces to join in, especially Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Lebanon. Israeli military officials have concluded that Iran had other interests, and refused to sacrifice their goals for the goals of Hamas.

Hezbollah did not enter into a full-scale war in the north, but rather created friction in the war with Israel. They have used Palestinians to target civilians, and their own capabilities to target Israeli soldiers. According to Israeli officials, Hezbollah has not had much success.

However, Israeli officials say that Hamas will provide its own success story that Israel had to evacuate 60,000 Israelis in northern border towns. It will, likely, declare that it diverted Israel’s attention from Gaza by forcing the IDF to deploy forces in Lebanon that could have been used in Gaza. Furthermore, Hezbollah could say it managed to disrupt the normal routine of Israeli residences in the north.

So far, Hezbollah has lost 76 operatives. Israel has lost 7 soldiers. Israel’s military experts have concluded that Hezbollah is very strict on equations. Now, Hezbollah is occupied with how to change the equation to something equivalent. However, Israel still has assessed that it is against Iran’s interest to fully mobilize Hezbollah and go to a full-scale war at this time.

While cooperation with the U.S. has been unprecendented, Israel has been restricted by the U.S. in the north.  There are diminishing degrees of strategy for Israel to act on because of what the Americans consider important in order to avoid a full multi-arena war. It is holding Israel back from accomplishing its military goals, but most Israeli officials accept that the benefits of American support are worth it.

Military officials claim that the security situation in the north should be changed, completely, to provide self-confidence and security to Israeli citizens, so they can return to their homes. The northern residences are not expected to rely on Israeli intelligence, nor on IDF sentiment, that states: “We will give you an early warning sign.” If northern residents see Hezbollah’s Radwan forces along the northern border, they will not go back to their homes.

Israelis that live in the north are in a state of fear, thinking that there will be terror inside their communities in the future. So, Israel’s military officials realize they need to do something dramatic to change the environment. Israel is not planning to go into a full-scale war. However, if necessary, Israel will do so. The IDF could inflict heavy damage on Lebanon by an aerial campaign. But, again, Israel is restricted by American policy in the Middle East.

Israel plans to eventually go to the United Nations, demanding that the it cause Lebanon to comply with UN Security Resolution 1701 (passed by the UN after the Second Lebanon War). Israel will use convincing statements to address the international community of what is not acceptable. Israel will insist that they are able to work with the United Nations and UNIFIL to push back Hezbollah’s Radwan forces to the Bekah Valley or north to the Litani River. If that does not work, Israel’s military forces will take the conflict on the northern border to the next stage. The next stage will be more violent. Israel cannot accept the situation as it is now, where thousands of people have been displaced from their homes. 

Is it inevitable that Israel will eventually go to war in the north?  According to one military spokesman, the answer is, “no.”

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, is on Israel’s map of targets. He is on the IDF’s radar, but it is a matter of context. Israel is not planning automatic action against Nasrallah. It has to do with intelligence gathering, and benefits to Israel’s national security. Israel is fully capable of going after Nasrallah. An IDF military official said to pay attention to how Israel deals with Gaza – the images will be similar.

 

PRAYER POINTS:

In 2 Chronicles 20:1 we read, “…Do not be afraid or discouraged because of the vast army. For the battle is not yours, but God’s.” 

PRAY that Israel recognizes that it is the Lord who is fighting on Israel’s behalf!

In 2 Samuel 17:45, we read, “David said to the Philistine, ‘You come to me with a sword, with a spear, and with a javelin. But I come to you in the name of the LORD of Hosts, the God of the armies of Israel, whom you have defied.’ ”

The Lord delivered Goliath into David’s hands, and we declare in the name of Jesus, and in PRAYER that God will deliver Hamas, Hezbollah, the Radwan forces, Iran, and others in the enemy’s Axis of Resistance…. all of them into Israel’s hands! And, the whole world will know that the God of Israel did this!

According to 2 Chronicles 32:8, PRAY that Israel relies on the Lord in battle!  Hamas or Hezbollah may have a great army, but they are merely men. We have the LORD our God to help us and to fight our battles for us!

Declare, as stated in Deuteronomy 20:1, that no matter what vast army tries to come against Israel, that Israeli forces will not shrink back in fear, but realize that the Lord is with them, as He was with them when He brought them out of Egypt.

Luke 8:17: “For there is nothing hidden that will not be disclosed, and nothing concealed that will not be known or brought out into the open.”

PRAY for the hostages that are in the captivity of Hamas in Gaza -- that the Lord will help the IDF find those hostages, immediately, and bring them ALL to safety, in Jesus name! 

Isaiah 61:3: They will be called Oaks of Righteousness, a planting of the LORD for the display of His splendor.”

PRAY for wounded Israeli soldiers in hospital rehabilitation centers throughout Israel – that the LORD will, supernaturally, heal them and restore them through miracles, signs, and wonders – HIS display of HIS splendor!

Proverbs 29:25: “Fear of man will prove to be a snare, but whoever trusts in the LORD is kept safe.”

Israel sees itself as weaker, militarily, than the United States. So, Israeli leaders lean on America, rather than God, Himself. This is becoming a snare for Israel in the north. PRAY that Israeli officials look to the Lord for their every need, especially, militarily, diplomatically, and politically, as they fight this war.

Acts 3:19: “Repent then, and turn to God, so that your sins may be wiped out, that times of refreshing may come from the Lord.” 

Currently, there are testimonies of miracles happening in Israel throughout this war. This is especially true of secular Jews. They are returning to God in the only way they know how – in being more observant of their traditions. It’s a start!  Do not dismay the day of small beginnings!  There is repentance through their sorrows.

Acts 3:20: “And, that He may send Jesus, the Messiah, who was preached to you before.” 

PRAY for this progressive faith that is at work here in Israel; that the fullness will come – from repentance, to a turn towards God, with forgiveness of sin, and refreshing times before Him. THEN, that the Lord will send Jesus to them; capturing the hearts of His people by bringing them their promised Messiah… that All Israel Will Be Saved!  (Romans 11:25-26).

Hebrews 10:36: “You need to persevere, so that when you have done the will of God, you will receive what He has promised.”

The “collective whole” of Israel is in the trial of endurance – running the race and wanting to finish it well, especially the believers. In the army, the soldiers are battling the ground forces of Hamas. In the Body of Messiah, we are battling heavenly forces. PRAY that He renews our strength like the wings of an eagle, and that we can soar with Him in heavenly places, receiving His heavenly perspective, in knowing how to PRAY most effectively! May His will be done on earth as it is in heaven!

Lock your prayer shields with us over Israel!