SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 54

Jerusalem, Israel

OCTOBER 2012 PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Middle East

There is a concerted effort by radical Islamists to stir hatred and violence against Christians and Jews; western nations and Israel. There is an evil spirit that is penetrating the international community and causing deeper rifts in societies.

During the All Nations Convocation (which took place in Jerusalem between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur), believers from around the world spoke of increased persecution and violence in their countries as they struggled with the rise of militant Islam.  This fight for the souls of men is increasing. This needs great intercession.

Psalm 2:1-3: “Why do the nations conspire and the peoples plot in vain? The kings of the earth rise up and the rulers band together against the Lord and against His Anointed, saying, “Let us break their chains and throw off their shackles.”

• Proclaim that God has installed His King in Zion, on His Holy Mountain.  And, He will rebuke the nations and terrify them in His wrath because of their rebellion.  Declare that the Father had given to His Son the nations as His inheritance; the ends of the earth as His possession. The Body of Messiah enters into this blessing. 

The Lord is warning the rulers of nations to be wise; to serve the Lord with reverence and trembling; and, to honor His Son. Pray through for the nations of this region as His wrath is coming!  And, pray for Christians and Jews in the Middle East to find refuge in the King of Kings and Lord of Lords!

Psalm 83:1-5: “O God, do not remain silent; do not turn a deaf ear, do not stand aloof, O God. See how Your enemies growl, how Your foes rear their heads. With cunning they conspire against Your people; they plot against those You cherish. “Come,” they say, “let us destroy them as a nation, so that Israel’s name is remembered no more.” With one mind they plot together; they form an alliance against You…”

  

•   Pray  that the nations and entities that surround Israel (Jordan; Egypt; Gaza; Saudi Arabia; Syria; Iraq; Lebanon); other Arab countries; and the Persian state of Iran, will be ashamed and dismayed at their national sin. Pray that they repent before they perish in their ways. Declare that they will turn and seek God’s ways before He sends a tempest against them. Declare that many from these nations will know the Lord, the Most High over all the earth, before the brewing storm comes in full force. 

•  King Abdullah of Jordan is the kingpin. His nation is now being threatened by the Moslem Brotherhood and Bedouin terrorists associated with Al Qaeda that are stirring up hatred among Bedouins in Jordan against the Jordanian Monarchy. There are many scriptures associated with Edom and Moab that show judgment on Jordan in the future…a nation created by the British that is sitting on God’s Promised Land for the Jews.

Pray for Jordanians to come to know Jesus before God’s wrath is poured out on their land because of their national sin against Israel and His Chosen People.  Though there is little in the news headlines at this time about Jordan, keep your eye upon this nation.  When violent uprisings begin to happen there, as well as among the Palestinians in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), it may be a sign that a new war in the Middle East is about to begin.  (See Isaiah 11:14; Jeremiah 9:25-26; Obadiah 1-8).

The United States government is involved in a cover-up of what really happened during the recent uprising in the Middle East. There was a lax of security in Cairo and Benghazi, which reflects poorly on the Obama Administration. Though acts of violence were pre-planned in these two cities, the media and U.S. State Department made it look like it was a spontaneous reaction to an anti-Islamic film produced by a Florida pastor. In the film, the character of the prophet Mohammed was portrayed in a negative light. The deception of Islam was revealed which caused a global fury. Moslems do not like it when the true face of Islam is revealed.

Because of the coming U.S. election, and Obama’s appeasement policies towards Moslem nations, the facts of what took place, especially in Libya, have been kept from the public eye. Instead of America being outraged at the premeditated killing of its Ambassador to Libya, the Obama Administration apologized to Arab nations for the anti-Islamic film.

The lack of solid U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is being seen as a weakening of America’s position in the region. This is due to a policy that compromises America’s values and caters to Islamic extremists. 

• Pray for an awakening in the United States, and righteous anger, that will call to account the Obama Administration’s twisted foreign policy. Pray that Americans will rise up and vote for justice, righteousness, and mercy, seeking the Lord for the return of their nation to Godly and moral principles.

More than 70% of Americans stand by Israel, today, and that blessing has extended God’s favor to the United States.

• Pray that Americans continue to bless Israel so that they will continue to receive the blessing of God on their nation. (See Genesis 12:3).

We have been praying for some time that Israeli leaders will begin to mention the Bible in their defense of Israel as a nation, diplomatically. When leaders like Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad prophesy at the United Nations that Israel has no right to the land, and must be destroyed, it is a relief to hear responses from Israel that are biblical.  

Here is the response to Ahmadinejad’s diatribes from Israeli President Shimon Peres: 

 “Around 2,500 years ago King Cyrus, the king of Persia, granted the Jewish people, led by Ezra and Nehemiah, the right to return to Israel and to rebuild their home. The Jews lived on the Land of Israel for thousands of years and there is no lie or leader that can remove chapters of history.”

• Thank the Lord that the leaders of Israel are recalling biblical stories of Israel’s claim to the Promised Land!  Praise God that the Bible continues to be a source of reference and wisdom for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, especially in the defense of the nation. Pray that the Lord protects Israel from the evil claims of Iran and defends Israel with His mighty right arm!

Netanyahu tried to explain at the United Nations that Iran is close to the “break-out” point… that point where they have enough uranium enriched to quickly build a nuclear bomb. The world looked on as Netanyahu drew a red line on an illustration of a bomb in order to point out Israel’s “red lines”. This is the point that Israel may go to war, and he implied it could be in the spring or summer of 2013.  

Biblically, scripture states that kings go to war in the spring. (See 2 Samuel 11:1; 1 Chronicles 20:1).  We still do not believe that there will be a direct war between Israel and Iran. The U.S. may lead a coalition of nations to war against Iran. 

Despite Obama’s unwillingness to talk about America’s “red lines” (a public dispute between the U.S. and Israel), the American government is discussing these “red lines” with Israel, privately.

• Pray that God will give wisdom and courage to the United States and its allies to know how to stop Iran from developing nuclear capability. Intercede that the enemy will not be able to advance his plans towards the Jewish State, and that the Lord will use the nations to protect and defend Israel from Iranian aggression.

There has been a diplomatic battle between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is trying to get approval from over 150 nations at the UN for the formation of a Palestinian state. He is aiming for a UN General Assembly resolution granting a Palestinian state with the status of non-member. If the UN General Assembly votes on this measure, and the Palestinians are granted the status of a non-member state, it levels the playing field with Israel. At that point, the Palestinians will seek to come back to the peace table, but with the goal of state-to-state negotiations with Israel. 

Meanwhile, the Palestinians have already said they will look to bring Israel before the International Criminal Court for policies of oppression. If they achieve their diplomatic goals, they will seek access to many United Nations organizations where they can continually confront Israeli policy. A recent example of this is when Abbas declared that the Israeli territories are no longer disputed but occupied. This false declaration is in opposition to internationally signed treaties from 1967 and beyond. 

• Pray that the Palestinians are pushed back by the Lord from being able to advance their deceptive diplomatic policies. Pray that their plans are brought into confusion; rendered useless; and that there is no advancement of their statehood goals at the United Nations or within the international community. Pray that all plans of the enemy are exposed and that Palestinian society rises up against their own leadership rather than Israel. Pray that the Lord replaces Mahmoud Abbas with a leader who wants to bless rather than curse the nation of Israel.

Syrian President Bashar Assad is on the brink of using chemicals on his own people and on the rebels who have opposed his government rule. With 30,000 Syrians dead, and more than 1.2 million displaced, Assad is losing his grip on major cities such as Aleppo and Damascus. If he tries to transfer chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, or unleashes his wrath on his people or Israel, we could see a major battle in the north.  

On the Golan Heights, Israeli soldiers have already been conducting live exercises, including simulated combat with Hezbollah. 

The shelling and mortar fire in Syria between government and rebel forces has been heard in Israel. 

 

• Some Bible teachers think that we may be on the verge of Isaiah Chapter 17:1.  Pray for repentance, revival, and healing to come to the Syrian people, especially those who live in Damascus.

Iran has been using civilian aircraft to fly over Iraqi airspace to deliver large quantities of weapons to the Syrian government. Iran recently admitted that its Revolutionary Guards were helping Assad in the civil war he is waging against his own people.

• Ask the Lord to stop all aircraft from being able to deliver arms to Assad’s government forces. Pray that the Lord will break the ungodly alliance between Iran and Syria. Pray that the war in Syria will cease and God will repair and restore the land.  Pray for peace on the Golan Heights both in Israel and Syria.

 

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 53

Jerusalem, Israel

THE SWEETNESS OF THE NEW YEAR IN A BITTER MIDDLE EAST

Israelis are toasting to the Jewish New Year this week, eating apples and honey as a reminder of the sweetness of the holiday season. It is a time of personal and national reflection, while the Middle East boils with new outbreaks of violence. In Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia, India, East Jerusalem and the West Bank, Arabs are taking to the streets, displaying their anger at what they perceive to be Western disrespect of the Moslem religion. The rioters are being encouraged by Al-Qaeda. Its organization in the Arabian Peninsula has posted statements on the Web urging attacks on American targets to weaken what they perceive to be U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. Hezbollah in Lebanon is warning the United States that a controversial anti-Islam film must be banned from Internet sites or there will be more violence against Western interests in the region.

New protests by Palestinians living in East Jerusalem and the West Bank are also a result of frustration with the high cost of living and economic instability. Furthermore, without the peace process moving forward, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is losing credibility among his own people. Palestinians have lashed out at government corruption and unfulfilled promises. The Palestinians do not see a state of their own becoming a reality anytime soon, which gives them little hope for the future. They have accused Hamas of trying to bring down the government of Abbas. And, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh is shifting the blame on Israel. The great schism between Fatah and Hamas is being revealed once again, and Israel does not want to be the scapegoat for a new Palestinian uprising.

Yet, for weeks now, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has fueled the fire by continually calling for the resignation of Abbas, adding to the exasperation that some Palestinians are feeling about their leader. Lieberman accuses Abbas of being involved in diplomatic terrorism against Israel, while representing a Palestinian government with no legitimacy. Lieberman has noted the stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which he sees as adversely affecting Israel’s ability to maintain positive relationships with its regional neighbors.  His concern is that the stalemate is creating a vacuum in the Palestinian territories that could be filled by radical Islamists. Islamists are already causing instability throughout the Middle East, taking advantage of the collapse of dictatorships before new stable governments are able to govern effectively.
  
During a recent briefing at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, MK Ronni Bar-On, Chairman of the Israeli Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, spoke to diplomats and journalists. He explained that the current Arab Spring is turning into a fundamentalist Islamic and jihadist winter in a new evolving Middle East.  Israel is the only true democracy operating in the region. “This is the right time for the international community and international public opinion to make itself count by way of backing democracy and trying to build new ones from the ruins of old dictatorships… The wheels of the revolution cannot be turned back, but if the people of the region do not get what they deserve and demand, this opportunity will soon turn to disaster and chaos.”

The recent clashes in the Middle East, with attacks on American embassies, has shown just how much hatred already exists towards the United States and Western powers.  But, while the world focuses on the latest upsurge in regional violence and terror, the first challenge for Israel is still Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made a point of putting pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to threaten Iran with military action if it crosses red lines. The Obama Administration has already responded negatively to Netanyahu’s demands.

However, the United States, Gulf countries and Western nations are currently engaged in military exercises in the Straits of Hormuz, determined that if war breaks out with Iran, the Straits will remain open to oil commerce. 

Meanwhile, Iran has become a global threat that could spark nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, resulting in Arab leaders rushing to acquire a nuclear bomb.  That is why Bar-On said Iran must not be allowed to achieve nuclear capability.  He also spoke of Iran’s latest weapons arsenal. “Iran’s long-term missile ability, as displayed countless times, will make the world a dangerous place to live in for all of us…Unconventional warfare will be traded and sold at cost value and will become available to every mad man with a suitcase of money.”

Bar-On believes that this kind of aggression in the region will set back the global war on terror and re-position Iran as a leading powerhouse in the Middle East.

So far, Iran has stubbornly resisted international efforts to stop its nuclear pursuit. Therefore, moderate Arab nations, especially those in the Gulf region, are now depending more and more on the United States to protect them. As Iran has proven its determination to enrich uranium at higher levels, the Iranian government has also stepped up its anti-Semitic rhetoric towards Israel, resulting in a greater likelihood of a new war in the Middle East. 

According to Bar-On, “The last minute for statesmanship and foreign policy is the last minute that something can be done to prevent the bomb and the bleak future it holds.  This last minute should not pass.”

While Iran continues to be the issue that dominates media headlines, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken a back seat. But, the new Arab dialogue on the streets in the West Bank and East Jerusalem could promote a shift within the Palestinian community. Bar-On explained that the Palestinian people now realize they have been wronged by their own government; that diplomacy has failed; negotiations are at a dead end; and it has left them with no hope. The pragmatic Palestinian willing to abandon terror will see an outstretched hand coming from Israel. “If negotiations do not get back on track we will be closing what could be possibly the last possibility for peace…I call the Palestinian leaders to let go of all the agendas and really try to make a difference.” 

As citizens of Israel bring in the Jewish New Year 5773, they are looking over their shoulder at the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict; a conflict that could boil over this coming year. At the same time, they are looking beyond their borders to a looming war with Iran that could ignite the whole Middle East region. Both possibilities do not make for a happy New Year. But, this season of personal and national reflection and repentance is one of the most important times in the history of the Jewish State; a time of concentrated prayer for the people of Israel and for the whole Middle East.

“If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.”    

2 Chronicles 7:14

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 52

SEPTEMBER 2012 PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Middle East

• There is more and more talk that Israel is on the verge of war. The media is predicting a direct war between Iran and Israel in late 2012 or early 2013.  But, instead, it could be a war that erupts on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will bring Israel into a new conflict. This may be followed by a conflagration between Israel and Arab states such as Syria and Egypt. If so, terrorists in the Sinai and in Gaza would likely join that war. Read Psalm Chapter 83.

If a war were to include Iran, it would be because of a U.S. led coalition against Iran, and not Israel acting alone.  The U.S. is moving aircraft carriers and ships into the Gulf region. American President Barack Obama is doing this more to satisfy the Arab Gulf States than to appease Israel. The Obama Administration is concerned that Iran might try and cut off oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, thereby paralyzing the oil industry.  

Meanwhile, there is a new emergency pamphlet being distributed throughout Israel with grim warnings preparing the nation for war. With Israel’s defense measures in place, including early-warning signals, Israelis would have from 30 seconds (in the far north and far south of the country) up to three minutes (in Jerusalem ) to get into bomb shelters. This would be the time between air raid sirens sounding and rockets slamming into civilian areas. This booklet that has been created by  Israel’s Home Front Command, has been mailed out, and includes how to prepare a safe room or bomb shelter for emergencies.

Pray that the Lord holds off any conflict that the enemy tries to bring forth before its timing. If Israel is to endure in another war on the battlefield, pray that the home front is ready; that the IDF is prepared; and that God subdues the enemy so that he is unable to hurt the land or God's people. 

Pray for the raising up of watchmen who will intercede for the Straits of Hormuz to remain open and not subject to Iranian plots to cause havoc in that area. Pray that the Lord will preserve the world economy and protect oil resources in the Gulf region. 

The sense is that He is shaking Arab nations surrounding Israel, and that He will shake Israel, as well. Many citizens are talking about fleeing the country. Pray that they do not panic and leave Israel for other nations. Pray that God glorifies His name through the people of faith, as believers stand in prayer and peace during a future conflict. Proclaim God’s Word over those living in the land, that there will be a great harvest! Intercede that the angels of God will miraculously intervene; that Israelis will see the Lord’s mighty acts around them; and, many will come to salvation.

• The next war could involve missiles hitting Tel Aviv, a city known as the gay capitol of the Middle East; a city that is proud of its secularism and its idols.

Declare the voice of the Lord over the Mediterranean waters and over Israel’s coastlines. (See Psalm 29:3; Jeremiah 10:13). Ask the Lord to tear down every wicked thing that rises against His name in Tel Aviv, while at the same time protecting those people in the city that love Him. (Psalm 18:16).

Egypt:

• The IDF averted a major disaster on Monday, August 6^th. Thank God that Israel’s Southern Command was on high alert, sensing an imminent terrorist attack.  A Sinai Bedouin terrorist group, affiliated with Al-Qaeda blew up an Egyptian army border-control building, killing 16 Egyptian soldiers. The terrorists then stormed the border crossing into Israel. When they were two kilometers inside Israel, an IDF missile blew up their vehicle and killed the terrorists.  The Southern Command believes that more attacks are being planned and is engaging in key cooperation with the Egyptians.  The IDF is also building up its defenses along the border with Egypt.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, however, ordered army tanks into the Sinai, allegedly without Israel’s permission (as stipulated in the Camp David Accords). He did this in order to stop terrorist activity and re-take control of the Sinai, especially in the north. Israeli leaders have not scolded Morsi publicly, but remain concerned that he will take other unilateral actions on Egypt’s border with Israel that will cause disputes, resulting in a challenge to the peace treaty. Morsi is securing his authority in Egypt, quietly taking over all power bases in the country.  He could soon be as strong a dictator as former President Hosni Mubarak.  Egypt may become an Islamic state under Sharia law. The Moslem Brotherhood, which Morsi is affiliated with, is looking for world domination, wanting to create a “global state of Islam”, encouraging its faithful followers in Syria, Jordan, Tunisia and Libya to follow its lead in Egypt.

Pray for a weakening of Morsi’s authority, and confusion in the ranks of the Moslem Brotherhood in Arab nations, especially those that surround Israel. Pray that God will strengthen and fortify Israel’s southern border with Egypt. Pray for a wall of protection that will look invisible to Israel’s enemies but will trap them if they try to commit terrorist acts. (See Exodus 14:17-18; Exodus 14:31). Pray and cry out to the Lord to intervene, not just on behalf of Israel, but also for the nations around Israel, that will come into God’s judgment if they continue to take action against the Jewish State. 

Syria:

Recent reports indicate that Al-Qaeda and other Sunni extremists are using Syrian land to advance their goals. For example, standing alongside of rebel forces, these Sunni radicals have conducted suicide bombings against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces, and are doing this with greater frequency. Reportedly, they want to form a Syrian-Iraqi Islamic State, hoping to unite all Moslems; and, then, initiate a war with Israel.

Intercede that the Lord will fight on Israel’s behalf against all terrorist forces that try to attack His Promised Land and Chosen People. 

Pray according to Psalm Chapter 27 that Israelis will focus on the Lord as their light and their salvation; recognizing Him as the strength of their life. Pray that they will not leave Israel because of their anxieties and unbelief. Pray that the Lord will show them His powerful hand in slaying wicked forces who occupy themselves with lofty plans of evil against His people. 

Even as Middle East armies encamp on Israel’s borders, and surround the Jewish State, pray that the citizens of Israel will not shrink back, but be of good courage. Pray that they will seek a closer relationship with the God of Israel.  

Intercede for believers to come into His Holy Presence with prayer and worship, acknowledging that it is He and He alone that can save this land from destruction. “For in the times of trouble, He shall hide me in His pavilion; in the secret place of His tabernacle, He shall hide me; He shall set me high upon a rock.”  (Psalm 27:5). 

Pray that Israelis will see the goodness of the Lord, in the land of the living, so that they do not lose heart. 

Pray that those that have faith in the Messiah will wait on the Lord, and step forth with courage, and that He will strengthen their hearts in the coming days.

• Recently, Iranian leaders have stepped up their anti-Semitic diatribes against Israel. Their hateful tirades continue to falsely accuse Israel of all kinds of things, and there is a constant call for Israel’s destruction. This is similar to Goliath’s verbal attacks against David. (See 1 Samuel Chapter 17). 
• After a recent conference of world leaders in Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a decision to address the UN General Assembly in New York (sometime between September 27 and September 30) to respond to the accusations against Israel. Netanyahu said:  “In Tehran today, the representatives of 120 countries heard a blood libel against the State of Israel and were silent. This silence must stop. Therefore, I will go to the UN General Assembly, and, in a clear voice, tell the nations of the world the truth about Iran’s terrorist regime, which constitutes the greatest threat to world peace.”

It is significant that not one of the leaders present at the Iranian conference left the meeting when Iran blasted Israel. The nations will be judged by the way they judge Israel. 

Pray for Israel to stand by God’s Word and His assurances that the Jewish people are the “apple of His eye”, according to Psalm 17:8; Proverbs 7:2; and Zechariah 2:8.  Pray for God’s mercy upon the nation of Iran and upon all nations that turn their back on Israel.  (See Genesis 12:3; Psalm Chapter 2; Joel 3:2 and Joel 3:12; Zechariah 12:3-4).  

Meanwhile, Israel’s public debate on Iran has become too vocal and is causing confusion. A house divided against itself cannot stand (Mark 3:25). Israel’s public debate is revealing to the world that there is division in the ranks of the government about Iran.   

Pray that Israeli leaders will realize that loose lips sink ships and will stop giving interviews to the media, regarding their opinions on this subject, some of which are in direct opposition to Netanyahu’s public statements. Pray that the internal divisions that show politicians and military officials are in disagreement over war with Iran, will become a hidden debate rather than a public one, as this only weakens Israel’s position within the international community. Pray for unity in the ranks of the Netanyahu government, especially among those in his nine member inner cabinet. 

By the way, Netanyahu does his best work in the middle of the night, according to media reports. So, when you intercede for him, pray that he will be sharp and alert during the wee hours of the morning when he makes major decisions; during the times when others in Israel are sound asleep!

• MK Arieh Eldad, a member of the right-wing National Union Party, has drafted a bill mandating certain hours that Jews can pray on the Temple Mount.  His bill, if passed, would assure freedom of worship on the Temple Mount not only for Jews, but for Christians, as well.  This would take care of a recent U.S. State Department report that criticizes Israel for denying all non-Moslems the opportunity to worship on the Temple Mount because of security risks.  Israel legally has the right to oversee activity on the Temple Mount, but has given over that authority to the Moslem WAQF.  If this bill passes, it would end the struggle that many have had in trying to go up to the Temple Mount to pray.  In a way, the State Department report, meant to criticize Israel, has actually opened a possible door for Jews and Christians to pray on the Mount along with Moslems! The bill will be submitted to the Knesset after the summer recess.     

           Pray for this bill to pass the Knesset that would allow freedom of worship on the Temple        Mount.  This would be a great opportunity to seek the Messiah where the Lord’s Temple once stood; to proclaim His Kingdom Authority over Israel and the nations, as well as the return of His Presence to this strategic site!   

• When former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir died earlier this summer, those who eulogized him spoke of his ability to say “no” in the face of international pressure. They recognized that he was unwilling to negotiate on his core values, which were that Israelis and Jews from around the world had the right to live in their biblical and historic homeland. This is what guided him as he steadfastly defended the Jewish State. On this one point, Shamir was commended for his tireless efforts to remain true to his values.  Israel needs more leaders like Shamir—those who will stand strong in the face of great adversity, defending Israel’s policies no matter how strong the opposition.

God is looking for brave men and women who will make decisions that please Him and His purposes for Israel.  

Pray for new emerging leaders to come forth and gain influence for Israel among the nations.

Pray for Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, and his Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. They are not only defending Israel in a strong way in international forums, but they are beginning to take offensive diplomatic action. This is rare in Israel, where most politicians only defend Israel’s position with no offensive plan. It seems that God is giving Liberman and Ayalon strategies and authority to reveal the true tactics of Israel’s enemies; to expose wicked schemes; and to successfully put forth Israel’s position among their peers in the international community. Thank the Lord for this, and continue to pray for these two men to receive Godly wisdom and counsel as they fight for Israel in the diplomatic arena.

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 51

Jerusalem, Israel

ISRAEL’S PUBLIC DEBATE ON IRAN

During the past several weeks there have been clear signs that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his government, the opposition, and his allies are grappling over a preliminary strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even within Netanyahu’s inner cabinet it has been reported that there are serious disagreements among members regarding what to do about Iran.

Much of the debate between current and former Israeli officials has been public; and, strong differences of opinions have been reported in interviews conducted by the Israeli media. Journalists continue to reveal the divisiveness among leaders regarding whether to strike now; wait for another round of diplomacy; or, let the U.S. take the lead on future military action against Iran.

Many Israelis claim that, as a sovereign nation, Israel should be able to act independently. Others say that Washington should be notified when Jerusalem leaders make a decision on Iran. A majority of Israelis are counting on the U.S. for major support as they do not want Israeli Defense Forces (the IDF) to act alone. 

U.S. President Barack Obama’s promise that America has Israel’s back has not convinced a skeptical Israeli population. Middle East analysts in Israel and abroad have challenged the U.S. president to present a clear cut plan as to when American diplomacy with Iran ends and military preparations begin. 

Publicly, the comments coming from the Obama Administration have not put Israelis at ease. This has become a sore point which has brought the debate to a fevered pitch. 

Despite differences between the U.S. and Israel on a diplomatic level, there has been unprecedented strategic defense cooperation in recent years.  In lieu of this, a media report published August 22, 2012 suggests that the Obama Administration is beginning to take some initiative towards military preparedness. The Seattle Times article claims that U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta ordered the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier to deploy back to the Middle East about four months earlier than planned. Panetta stressed that the early deployment will deal with the current threats in the region including Iran and the continued chaos in Syria. He said the U.S. wants to be prepared with any contingency that develops in the region. This seemingly minor action seems to indicate that the Pentagon has started to listen to Israel’s concern on some level.

In the meantime, what can be expected if Israel decides to conduct a pre-emptive military strike against Iran?  Hezbollah currently has at least 60,000 missiles in its weapons arsenal, and the IDF is prepared if the Lebanese terrorist militia begins firing them at the Israeli home front. If Iran also gives orders to Gaza terror groups, then Islamic Jihad or Hamas is expected to launch a missile attack on Israel. The Jewish State has already warned that parts of Lebanon and Gaza may be destroyed in order for Israel to protect its home front.  On a global level, if there is a major confrontation, Israelis and Jews traveling abroad may come under fire from terrorists who sympathize with Iran.

Israel has been training its pilots for many years but the question is what Middle East country will allow the Israeli Air Force (IAF) to fly over its airspace to Iran? The northern route would put the IAF over a portion of Turkey and Syria. Israel’s diplomatic relations with Turkey have diminished, considerably, and it is unlikely that Turkey or Syria (an enemy of Israel) would allow any IAF flyovers. The southern route to Iran would take Israeli pilots over Saudi Arabia airspace. While this is feasible, it means that IAF jets would need to refuel in the Saudi desert. The central route would take Israel over Jordan and Iraq, which would be the shortest route, but the most diplomatically problematic to get permission for flyovers.

In the midst of talk about a possible war with Iran, there are Israeli home front preparations taking place in the north of the country. Reports indicate that some northern citizens are already making plans to flee the country for fear of a major war coming soon. 

While much of the international community is focused on a possible Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iran, the Jewish State is preparing for a future conflict with Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah.  Recently, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel when he claimed that he is preparing to send troops into the Galilee. He also maintained that if Israel strikes Iran, Hezbollah will join Iran in a counterstrike against Israel.

There’s a high probability that Iranian leaders will direct Hezbollah to provoke a conflict with Israel in order to try and stop the IDF from attacking Iran. 

The IDF is also monitoring the civil war in Syria.  Syria is Iran’s ally and Iran’s mullahs are determined to make sure that Syrian President Bashar Assad stays in power. If Syria’s Sunni majority is able to take over the Assad regime, the axis of power that Shiite Iran has developed in the region (Syria-Lebanon-Iraq) will be weakened considerably. Assad’s rule in Syria also guarantees the survival of Iranian-backed Hezbollah. 

Hezbollah not only controls southern Lebanon, it has substantial influence within the Lebanese Armed Forces, and is a major political player in the Lebanese government. If Syria collapses, Assad’s minority Alawite forces may find refuge in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. This would result in expanding the Shiite stronghold there which would be protected by Hezbollah.  It would re-energize Hezbollah’s guerilla war against Israel.

Recognizing that the U.S. could lose friends in the Middle East by leading a coalition against Iran, the Obama Administration has been counting the cost of getting involved. Reportedly, the Iranian Quds Force has been behind recent terror attacks against Western targets in the Middle East. More attacks can be expected if the White House chooses to clearly define and prepare for military action against Iran. 

It is well known that Hezbollah has “sleeper cells” in the United States that could be mobilized should America lead a war against Iran.  Recently, Iran showed off its military capabilities, including a new line of short-range missiles that could hit U.S. troops in the Gulf region. The missiles could also be used against ships in the Straits of Hormuz to paralyze the oil industry. 

With the American presidential elections coming up in November, it seems that Obama is treading carefully when it comes to saber rattling vis-à-vis Iran.

Obama and Netanyahu seem to agree that containing Iran is not only about stopping its nuclear aggression, but also about weakening its terror alliances. Lately, there has been great Iranian investment in plots to assassinate Israelis in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.  Iran’s Middle East terror groups continue to speak of eradicating the Jewish State and bringing the West to its knees.  The weakening of Iran’s power and resolve is a high priority in Israel and the U.S.

Netanyahu also agrees with Obama on the need to continue strong international sanctions against Iran in order to force it to comply with U.N. resolutions. But, recent comments by American Vice President Joseph Biden, boasting of accomplishments in the U.S.-Israel relationship to strengthen and care for Israel’s well-being in the midst of regional terror threats, have not been comforting to Israelis. Claiming record levels of security assistance to Israel; the biggest joint military exercises ever between the two countries; high-level intelligence exchanges between the two allies; and bi-weekly discussions between top generals from both nations has still not been what Israeli leaders hoped to hear in the public forum. 

What Netanyahu continues to look for is public assurances from the White House of a credible U.S. military threat that will cause Iran to stop its work on nuclear weapons.  This may not come to fruition any time soon. 

For Israel, every hesitation and indecisive act by the United States, which causes it to refrain from warning leaders in Tehran, brings Israel one step closer to taking independent decisive military action against Iran in order to stop its nuclear quest.