SITUATION ANALYSIS -- IV

Jerusalem, Israel

Ethiopia: It is unknown whether Israeli government officials will abide by their promise to allow almost 9,000 Ethiopian Jews stuck in transit camps to immigrate to Israel. The last of the Falasha Mura's have been obstructed from immigrating by Israeli authorities.

(See Isaiah 43:6 in the Bible's Revised Standard Edition).

(Declare that Israel should not hold these Jews back from returning to the Promised Land!)

Hot Spots

*Lebanon: At least 2,500 Hezbollah guerillas are operating in southern Lebanon, in defiance of UN Resolution 1701. Hezbollah has tripled its military arsenal since the Lebanon War of 2006. It has reportedly obtained 30-40,000 missiles capable of covering 75% of Israel. It is also busy recruiting and training new fighters, as well as expanding its Command Center. Some Israeli defense officials think that Hezbollah currently poses a greater threat to Israel than Iran. One of the reasons is because Israel does not have an anti-missile defense system in place to deter short-range rockets from hitting the Jewish State.

(Proclaim Psalm 91:5-6).

Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah still plans to avenge the death of arch-terrorist Imad Muginyeh, and has tried, so far unsuccessfully
to kidnap Israelis traveling abroad.

(Proclaim Psalm 91:9-13 for Jewish people in Israel and the nations who are vulnerable to an attack from Hezbollah. Pray for God's protection and safety over His chosen people).

*Iran: Ehud Barak, Israel's Defense Minister, has said that if Russia delivers its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will neutralize the effectiveness of that system by using a specialized electronic warfare device. This would, in effect embarrass Russian officials and be a blow to Russia's national security. Barak thinks that a nuclear Iran poses a danger to world order. He also stated, recently, that if attacked, Israel is prepared to respond and to succeed uncompromisingly.

(Continue to stand in the gap in intercession -- that God will not allow the enemy to bring the Ezekiel Chapter 38 and 39 war before its appointed time).

*Syria: An illusion of peace based on a progression in talks between Israel and Syria continue to occupy the global news media. At the same time that Israel has agreed to withdraw from the Golan Heights through in-direct negotiations, Syria has not agreed to separate itself from terrorist groups, including Hezbollah and Hamas. Nor, has Syria agreed to back down from its close strategic relationship with Iran.

Since Syria has entered into the peace equation with Israel, Syria's President Bashar Assad has enjoyed unprecedented favor with the international community, especially Turkey, France and Qatar. At the same time, Syria has upgraded relations with the Lebanese government.

A new confrontation with Israel is possible if Syria and Iran continue to deliver advanced weapons systems to Hezbollah that pose a major threat to Israel's security. Syria continues to use diplomacy as a pressure on Israel, while preparing for brutal military tactics on Israel's northern border.

Assad has not stopped trying to acquire advanced missile systems, including requests in his recent meeting with Russian officials. He has asked for the delivery of long-range Russian anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. He has also offered to deploy short-range Russian missiles on Syrian territory.

*Russia: Russia has shown its own aggressive tactics in its recent invasion of the country of Georgia. Threatened by US military advances in Europe, (in terms of missile defense), Russia has also deeply disapproved of countries near its borders aligning with NATO forces.

Russia has threatened to attack a U.S. anti-missile defense system if it is deployed in Poland. Russia has also made some serious threats against U.S. measures to deploy a radar tracking system in the Czech Republic, as well.

Some analysts see the Iranian-Syrian-Russian axis (including terrorist proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon) as a rising global power that must be dealt with by the international community. However, many countries, especially those in Europe, would rather do business with these rogue nations and appease them,ignoring both subtle and blatant acts of aggression. Meanwhile, Russia continues to play an active role in the Gulf region, activating Soviet military alliances despite calls for Russia to be excluded from the G8 and expelled from the UN Security Council. Russia is counting on disunity among member states, taking advantage of a weakened Western economy hit by increasing oil prices, and by a dependence on foreign oil supplies.

(Proclaim Psalm 46:6-7: "The nations raged, the kingdoms were moved; He uttered His voice, the earth melted. The Lord of Hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge").

International Diplomacy

U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East has taken a step backwards while U.S. citizens concentrate on domestic policies at home. This transition is a result of a political focus on the upcoming American presidential elections. This vacuum has allowed France and Russia to get a foothold in the Middle East, with leaders of those nations pressing their own agendas, which are not necessarily good for Israel.

(Pray Psalm Chapter 37 on behalf of Israel, especially verse 6. Pray that Israeli diplomats and politicians will walk in God's wisdom regarding every foreign policy initiative presented by the international community, especially during this vulnerable time in diplomacy).

U.S.-Israel Strategic Military Cooperation

The special relationship between Israeli and American defense officials is enhanced by increased cooperation in missile-defense technology. The possibility of war with Iran has caused both nations to deploy more advanced weapons systems that provide greater coordination between air force and army officers. Israel and the U.S. are performing military exercises (simulations and drills) to prepare for deployment of these systems. The U.S. is likely to deploy missile defense systems on ships off Israel's coast to assist in intercepting in-coming ballistic missiles from Iran if war breaks out.

(Pray for U.S. Major General Ido Zehushtan who would be the central commander in charge of missile defense systems in the Middle East region in the event of war). (See Jerusalem Post Frontlines article, titled, "In Advance", Friday, August 8, 08).

(Pray for Israel's ability to protect the Jewish nation in the event of a missile war. One of the ways Israel does this is by flying over enemy territory to deter acts of war and terror).

Vulnerable Skies

Apparently, Hezbollah can now track Israeli Air Force planes from the Mediterranean Sea in the west, to Damascus in the east, because of advanced radar installations located in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah reportedly received help from Syrian and Iranian operatives in installing these systems.

Hamas, in Gaza, is thought to have a number of shoulder-to-shoulder air missiles, as well as heavy anti-aircraft machine guns. Therefore, Israel's air force is not flying as much over Gaza as it has in the past.

These sophisticated systems, deployed by Israel's enemies in Lebanon and Gaza make it more difficult for Israeli air force flyovers. This also means the possibility of Israeli aircraft being shot down in the event of war.

(Pray for these vulnerabilities in Israeli air defenses as the Jewish nation tries to increase its deterrence capability against evil aggression. Israel's enemies are vigorous and strong, and their capabilities have multiplied, but God is a constant defender of His chosen people – the "apple of His eye"). (See Psalm 38:21-22; Psalm 71:12-13; Deuteronomy 32:10).

(Pray for Israelis as they prepare for war, according to Psalm 144:1-2. God will not allow Israel to be destroyed). (See Jeremiah 31:35-37).


Prisoner Release

Recently, in defiance of Israel's own "red lines", Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government released almost 200 Palestinian prisoners, including several with "blood on their hands". Some of these terrorists had committed murder against Israeli civilians and were serving time in jail until their recent release. The diplomatic pressure on Israel to please the international community by bolstering political support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has not necessarily advanced the peace process. It has also not cleared the way for a release of Israeli P.O.W. Gilad Shalit.

(Pray that the Israeli government will not enter into any more snares because of a lack of counsel and sound judgment. Declare Proverbs 29:25-26. Pray for Corporal Shalit who is suffering health issues in captivity. Pray that he will be healed supernaturally by God as he waits for deliverance from his captives, and freedom to return to his family in Israel).

(Declare Psalm 121:1-8 for all of Israel during this vulnerable time in Israel's sixty year history)!

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- III

Jerusalem, Israel

POLITICAL TURMOIL

The recent announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, that he will leave office once a Kadima member is elected to replace him in mid-September, puts Israel in a vulnerable position politically. This now starts a process of transition from Olmert to a new prime minister.

The two candidates that have a possible chance at winning the Kadima internal election are current Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni, and current Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.

Once Kadima members vote to decide who will lead their party and, ultimately, who will lead the country through early 2009, the newly chosen prime minister still has to retain a strong government coalition. There is speculation that either candidate will look to form a national unity government with Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and Labor leader Ehud Barak. One major reason for a national unity government would be Israel’s concern over a possible military confrontation with Iran by 2009.

Meanwhile, analysts in Israel predict that new general elections in Israel could take place as early as spring 2009, at which point the Israeli public would be able to participate and elect a new prime minister and party to lead the country. In interviewing Israelis over the past couple of weeks, the impression is that they do not see a potential candidate who they think can adequately run the country. This pessimism is prevalent in Israeli society, as many citizens have lost confidence in the Israeli political system.

PRAYER POINTS:

Scripture indicates that a kingdom, city, or house divided against itself cannot stand. (Matthew 12:25). Therefore, prayers are needed for the Jewish nation to find renewed hope in the possibility of new leadership for the country. Also, pray for “unity of the Spirit and the bond of peace” during this critical transition time, as members of Israel’s political system consider joining forces to deal with the need for safety and security in this hostile region of the world.

What does unite Israelis is the existential threat of a future nuclear Iran. Pray that citizens look beyond their tarnished leaders to the more important issue of the survival of the nation. Pray that the Lord raises up new leadership in Israel that is more concerned for the welfare of the state than personal advancement and power.

Matthew 12:35-37 sheds some light here. Pray that good men, out of the good treasure of their hearts, will bring forth good things and that by their words, they will be justified. Pray that their actions will show good judgment, humility, and true concern for the needs of the population. Pray that whoever becomes prime minister will not sacrifice land for peace, but will look towards being a good steward of the land God has given, and trust Him for Israel to find peace with its enemies.

NATIONS WANTING TO DIVIDE GOD’S LAND

Even though U.S. President George W. Bush is in his last months in office, his administration continues to pressure Israel to divide the land, and concede much of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) to the Palestinian Authority. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, despite his high unpopularity ratings in Britain, visited Israel recently, and blasted the government for settlement expansion. He urged Israel to compromise with the Palestinians on the land issue.

Any kind of written agreement between Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, which is witnessed by the U.S. and the international community, will obligate Israeli leaders. Regardless of how vague that agreement is, it becomes a trap for future Israeli governments that would be obliged to follow the “pre-conditions” accepted and approved by Olmert, Abbas, and Bush.

PRAYER POINTS:

Pray that Israel’s current and future leadership will not succumb to pressure through having a fear of man, but will instead trust in the Lord and His security, according to Proverbs 12:25. Declare Zechariah 2:8-13, that America and other nations will not touch the “apple of God’s eye” and that if they do, they will be subject to His righteous judgment.

Pray that the U.S. and the international community will enter into God’s blessings, and will join themselves to the Lord’s plans and purposes. Proclaim the Lord’s possession of Judah as his inheritance in the Holy Land, acknowledging that He will again choose Jerusalem, as He has done so many times in the past.

JERUSALEM

After years of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and a conflict that has lasted throughout the generations, the sticking point that does not allow a settlement and a final peace treaty is Jerusalem. This has continued to be the point of contention between the two peoples.

Recent reports indicate that the Palestinians are uncompromising on this issue. For them, Jerusalem is a red line they will not cross. They want a state of Palestine with Jerusalem as their capital and they have not relented on that demand. Palestinian leaders have declared that the international community must understand that Jerusalem is the core problem.

This is not a new revelation. To keep his government from falling, Olmert made agreements with coalition members that he would not negotiate on Jerusalem. While negotiations reportedly did take place, especially between Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni and Palestinian leaders, such as Ahmed Qurei, it was finally decided that these negotiations would not be part of the current attempt to come up with an agreement by the end of 2008.

Now, even a “declaration of principles” or a “shelf agreement” seems unlikely because of the political climate in Israel. But, adding to that is the issue of Jerusalem...an issue that will not go away, regardless of who becomes the next leader of Israel.

PRAYER POINTS:

Declare God’s sovereignty over Jerusalem and His heart for Zion. Pray for Jerusalem’s peace, according to Psalm 122:1-9. Pray that Jerusalem will remain the undivided eternal capital of Israel. Pray Psalm 48:1-13, especially that God will establish Zion forever. Proclaim Psalm 46:10: “The Lord shall reign forever, Your God, O Zion, to all generations.” Bring Israel before God in your prayers, because, according to scripture, they have joined themselves to the Lord in a perpetual covenant, seeking His face in Zion (see Jeremiah 50:4-5; Obadiah 17).

INCREASE IN VIOLENCE

Bulldozer terrorism is the latest attempt by Israel’s enemies to shed blood in the city of Jerusalem. During the past month, the population has been confronted by two terrorists, both coming from East Jerusalem neighborhoods, who tried to kill Israelis, using a bulldozer from a construction site. One Israeli Arab terrorist smashed cars and ran pedestrians over on Jaffa Road. Another used his bulldozer to wound Israelis on King David Street. Both attacks happened in the middle of the day on busy streets in the heart of the city.

Because these Arabs have Israeli citizenship, and supposedly acted on their own (and, not as part of a terror group), this has limited the ability of police and the IDF to thwart such attacks.

PRAYER POINTS:

Pray for reconciliation efforts between Israeli Jews and Arabs, especially those who are residing in the Jerusalem area. Pray for the Israeli police and army to have insights and wisdom as they increase their intelligence capabilities to stop the terror attacks. Pray that this barbaric act of bulldozer terrorism will cease immediately.

Pray Psalm 125 upon Israel, and upon Jerusalem, especially for God’s protection over the city. (Verse 2: “As the mountains surround Jerusalem so the Lord surrounds His people from this time forth and forever”). The Lord promises that Mt. Zion cannot be moved, but abides forever. Pray that the peace process will not move forward in man’s attempt to compromise on Jerusalem.

Declare God’s ability to make His enemies His footstool, and that He will rule in the midst of His enemies, according to Psalm 110:1-2. Ask the Lord to give defense leaders wisdom in how to deter terrorist attacks on Israel’s cities.

Proclaim Psalm 14:2-6, that the Lord is building up Jerusalem; gathering the outcasts of Israel; healing the brokenhearted; and, binding up their wounds. Thank God that He is lifting up the humble and casting the wicked to the ground. Thank Him, also, that He dettered the second bulldozer terrorist from being able to kill Israelis, by alerting a civilian to shoot the enemy before he could do any more harm.

Pray comfort for the families that lost loved ones in the first attack. Pray for a full healing and recovery for those Israelis who were wounded in both attacks.

AL QAEDA

Recent media reports indicate that Al Qaeda’s presence in Gaza has now been extended to the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), with elements trying to gain a foothold in east Jerusalem.

PRAYER POINTS:

Pray confusion into the enemy camp. Pray that the Lord gives Israel insights on how to root out Al Qaeda strongholds in the Palestinian territories and in Jerusalem Arab neighborhoods.

Intercede according to Psalm 121:1-8. Based on that scripture, pray that Israelis look to the Lord for help. Declare that He will now allow their foot to stumble, and that “He who keeps Israel shall neither slumber nor sleep.”

Pray that Israelis have dreams and visions which bring them understanding that the Lord is their keeper, who will preserve them from all evil. Pray His protection over Israel now and in the future.

PRISONER EXCHANGE AND THE THREAT OF FUTURE KIDNAPPINGS

The recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah resulted in the release of four Hezbollah terrorists and one Palestinian murderer with “blood on their hands” This was a red line that Israel was willing to cross in order to retrieve two P.O.W.’s from the hands of Hezbollah – soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.

Unfortunately, because of faulty Israeli Military Intelligence, no one knew if Goldwasser and Regev were alive. For two years their families worked hard at promoting their cause; petitioning the United Nations, the Red Cross, the United States, the EU, and many nations; demanding a report on the welfare of these soldiers kidnapped on the Israeli-Lebanese border, July 2008.

In the end, as thousands of Israelis watched on television, the bodies of these two soldiers came back home in two black coffins. This was a disappointment, not only to Karmi Goldwasser (Ehud’s wife), but to both families who lost their sons.

In addition, there was skepticism in Israel and abroad about the prisoner exchange with critics saying it would lead to a strong price that Israel would have to pay for the release of P.O.W. Corporal Gilad Shalit, who is still being held in Gaza, after more than two years of being captured by Hamas.

Israel faces more kidnapping threats from Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. Israel’s prisoner exchange was seen by Arabs in the region as a further weakening of the resolve of the Jewish state.

In Israel, the prisoner exchange was a uniting factor, as many here mourned, together, the death of Goldwasser and Regev. On the streets, Israeli mothers explained to me that they would want to know the fate of their sons if this happened to their family; and they understood the need for the soldiers to be returned home, even if they were no longer alive, so there could be a proper burial for them.

This one incident showed how Israelis pull together during times of tragedy. It also revealed how the state fulfilled its responsibility to bring its soldiers home in any way possible, assuring new draftees to the IDF that the government can be trusted to meet its obligations.

PRAYER POINTS:

Pray for the prevention of any future kidnappings by Hezbollah, Hamas or any other terrorist entity. Pray that Hezbollah will be prevented by the Lord from avenging the death of Imad Mugniyeh. Hezbollah has threatened Israel and Jewish groups, worldwide, claiming that Israel assassinated the arch terrorist in Syria earlier this year -- a claim that Israel has continually denied.

Pray protection over Jewish people in Israel and the nations from any attempts by the enemy to strike at Jewish targets. Pray for God’s shield to keep the state of Israel secure; that He would increase intercession on the walls of Jerusalem and throughout the land. Proclaim Psalm 144:1-2 on Israel’s behalf.

Pray that Israel will not be forced to release thousands of Palestinian terrorists in exchange for Corporal Gilad Shalit. Seek the Lord and ask Him to give wisdom and favor to Israeli negotiators so that Shalit can be released soon. Pray for his deliverance and escape, according to Psalm 71:1-16. Ask the Lord to take him out of the hand of the wicked; from those unrighteous and cruel men who are holding him captive.

Pray that Shalit will understand clearly that his hope, trust, and refuge must be in the Lord. Ask the Lord for Shalit to be strengthened and healed supernaturally while in captivity. Intercede that God will hasten Shalit’s release and help him.

According to Jeremiah 31:23-25, pray that the Lord will satiate the weary soul, and replenish every sorrowful soul that has paid a high price in losing their beloved one on the battlefield.

LINK

Readers, please note that an update to the news on Iran in this blog can be found by going to: www.threatswatch.org

You will see a published article titled, "Countering the Iranian Threat" by C. Hart. That's my latest analysis.

If you can't find it, here's the link:

http://threatswatch.org/analysis/2008/07/countering-the-iranian-threat/

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- II

Jerusalem, Israel


This is a political, diplomatic, and military assessment of current developments in Israel, the Middle East, and other regions of the world. It includes specific prayer points, at the conclusion, for those watching global events.


HEADLINES:

• Preparations For Future Military Conflicts
• The Iranian Threat
• Middle East Alignments
• Olmert's Negotiations With Syria
• The Golan Heights
• Changes In Influence In the Middle East
• Shelf Agreements and Drawer Plans
• Statistics on Corruption
• Prayer Points

PREPARATIONS FOR FUTURE MILITARY CONFLICTS

From high alert to high alert, Israel is always in a preparatory state for a future military conflict. In line with that assessment, the Israeli government has recently allowed defense officials to go on record in announcing to media outlets that the IAF (Israeli Air Force) is preparing for action on several fronts. This is Israel’s saber rattling towards enemy states and their proxies. Putting Iran on notice, IDF officials and government leaders have recently boasted of Israeli military advancements in jet fighters, anti-defense missile systems, and sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles that can carry deadly weapons as payloads.

On Israel’s northern border, reports indicate that Hezbollah has tripled its military capabilities since the Second Lebanon War of 2006. It has also entrenched itself in re-built and fortified underground bunkers north and south of the Litani River, despite the presence of UN troops in the area since the end of the war. Hezbollah, which just won substantial political gains within the Lebanese government, may want to show off its military might by looking for the right moment to engage Israel in a conflict over the Shaba Farms territory, which is currently under Israeli control. Both Lebanese and Syrian leaders claim this area is officially part of their domain.

Syria and Israel are engaged in widely publicized peace negotiations, and while on the “brink of peace”, Israel knows it also means the “brink of war”. If negotiations break down, Syria will only draw closer to its present ally... Iran.

Though U.S. reports indicate otherwise, Syria has refused to admit that it has hidden nuclear facilities within the state. In the future, if Israeli leaders believe these facilities are close to becoming operational, the IAF may consider another strike on Syrian territory, similar to the Israeli strike on a nuclear plant in the northern Syrian desert on September 6, 2007. This could lead to a strong military response from Syria.

While Israel deals with various risks to its national stability, the greatest preparations both diplomatically and politically involve the longer-range regional threat ... Iran.

THE IRANIAN THREAT

Israel seems to have successfully convinced France, the UK, Germany, and Italy that the dangers of Iran extend beyond the Middle East to Europe. This is because Iran is building sophisticated missiles that will eventually be capable of hitting Europe’s coastal region.

Israeli diplomatic negotiations with Europe have resulted in an increase in strategic cooperation agreements, with a recent political upgrade in Israel-EU relations.

French President Nicholas Sarkozy made an official visit to Israel recently, putting his full support behind the Jewish state with regard to Iran. France has taken over the EU presidency this summer, which benefits Israel because of the already close relationship with Sarkozy.

On July 13, Sarkozy is forming a new union of European and Mediterranean countries. This will provide a strong united front of regional cooperation in lieu of the Iranian threat. It could also include the opportunity for greater coordination with NATO in advanced military maneuvers. Already, Israeli defense forces have been close observers to expansive NATO exercises in the region.

Israel recently held its own mass military exercise in the Mediterranean, with 100 jet fighters doing flyovers that included a stretch of 1500 kilometers – precisely the distance from Israel to Iran. This follows less known Israeli military exercises in North America, Italy, Greece, and Spain.

During the past month, two top Israeli IDF officers talked about a possible military confrontation between Israel and Iran. It appears that the Israeli government allowed these men to speak-up in order to assess public opinion. When Israeli Deputy Prime Minister General Shaul Mofaz (born in 1948 in Tehran) made his statement about a military option against Iran, the stock market showed a marked fluctuation, and the price of oil skyrocketed. When former Deputy Defense Minister, Ephraim Sneh spoke his mind on the subject, there was no marked response in world markets.

Meanwhile, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen has been in Israel twice in recent months to talk with defense officials about Iran. His visit follows an unprecedented number of high level U.S. military officers visiting the Jewish state, including two four-star U.S. generals.

Mullen commented that there have been several incidents in the Straits of Hormuz involving Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats which have aggressively approached U.S. ships, and he expects there could be similar encounters in the future. Millions of barrels of oil are shipped daily through the Straits which constitute about 20% of the world’s consumption. About 60% of global oil supplies pass through there. One Iranian tactic that could jeopardize the world economy and lead to war would be to cut off the flow of oil through the Straits.

Recently, Iran threatened to do just that. It said that if attacked it would launch missile attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests in the Gulf region and choke off the Straits. This would cause oil prices to rise sustantially.

Israel is looking seriously at a recent military transaction that allegedly took place between Russia and Iran. According to reports, Russia may have sold Iran an advanced air defense missile system that can track dozens of targets, simultaneously, and could hurt Israel’s ability to strike Iran effectively. Threatening Israel’s qualitative edge, the deployment of this system in Iran would have major repercussions for Israel. The IAF could decide to strike Iran before the system is delivered.

Most of the world’s attention is on the upcoming U.S. elections in a contest that is pitting Democratic contender Barak Obama against Republican contender John McCain. Obama’s previous call for diplomatic talks with Iran has caused anxiety in some Israeli sectors. While current U.S. President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are strong on the need to stop Iran’s nuclear program, nobody in Israel really knows how Obama will react if he becomes the next American president.

Israel needs American IFF (electronic Identification Friend or Foe) military codes to be able to fly over Iraq and Turkey in the event of a military strike against Iran. Would Obama provide these if he felt it wasn’t right for Israel to attack Iran?

The shuttling back and forth of U.S. officers to Israel, and media reports about current high level coordination between the two countries, has caused speculation about a possible Israeli air strike on Iranian nuclear sites during the period of transition in America between the 2008 U.S. November presidential elections and the inauguration in January 2009.

If Israel decides to strike and has to go it alone, the Jewish state is counting on help from America’s military. Looking at the present level of strategic cooperation between the two countries, it is likely that Israel would get the help it needs.

MIDDLE EAST ALIGNMENTS

According to Matti Steinberg, former Senior Advisor to the heads of the General Security Service (GSS) in Israel, there is no question that the involvement and interference of Iran in the Israeli-Arab conflict is stronger than any time before. It is part of the “Arabization” of Iran, he said. Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, but by being involved at the center of gravity of the Arab world, Steinburg believes Iran is presenting itself as loyal to the Arab conscience. Materially, Iran is the main supporter of Hamas.

Speaking at a recent gathering of journalists in Jerusalem, Steinberg explained that Israel should align itself with Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia as a common denominator against the Iranian threat.

“It becomes clear, more and more, that Iran is behind the main troubles in the area. It is behind Hezbollah and Hamas. It strives for a nuclear military power. And, maybe, an important way to weaken the extremists in the area is to weaken Iran. But, you have to prepare the political ground, and for this reason, you need the political process.”

Israel is now involved in several political processes with an aim at gathering a coalition of countries together for the primary purpose of stopping Iran, both in terms of its nuclear ambitions and its desire for regional dominance through terrorism.

OLMERT’S NEGOTIATIONS WITH SYRIA

It’s probable that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert went into peace talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad to pull Syria out of the Iranian axis. This could be Olmert’s tactic – to negotiate on the Golan Heights issue, but not finalize any kind of settlement with Syria. This would be accomplished in order to isolate Iran, and attempt to increase the friction and suspicion between Iran and Syria.

The result might be that if Iran is attacked by Israel, with or without Western coalition forces helping, Syria would not feel compelled to participate in the conflict. This might be part of Olmert’s diplomatic maneuvering in preparation for a future military strike against Iran.

But, pulling Syria away from Iran will not be easy. Syria has a close strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, and both share the benefits of military cooperation with Russia, a country that continues to sell advanced arms to Damascus and Tehran.

THE GOLAN HEIGHTS

A majority of Israelis still do not want to cede the Golan Heights. As one former defense minister put it, “It’s better to be on top of the Heights than to be on the bottom.” Many citizens were not born yet, or don’t want to remember the times when the Heights were in Syrian hands and snipers frequently shot, wounded and killed Israelis living below. At least 30,000 Israelis live on the Golan today, which is a major water source for Israel.

In June, a joint session of the Knesset’s Law and House committees approved a first reading of a bill that would demand a “national referendum” before handing over any land currently under Israel’s authority. It also passed its first reading in the Knesset by a significant majority.

The bill will have to go through two more readings before it is passed. If it does become law, not only will the prime minister need to get his government’s approval, but also approval from members of the Knesset to withdraw from the Golan Heights. After that, he would need a majority of support from Israeli voters in a national referendum. However, if 80 members of the Knesset voted in favor of the withdrawal, that would rule out the need for a national referendum.

While Israelis continue to express their skepticism, Olmert’s dealings with Syria have now opened the door to European nations renewing contact with President Assad, a man who until just a few months ago felt the isolation of the West. Syria has been one of the “rogue states” that U.S. President George W. Bush has included in the “axis of evil.”

It is possible that Syria has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea, and if so, this needs to be known by the international community. Both North Korea and Syria need to be held accountable for any further nuclear proliferation.

HOT SPOTS

Gaza and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) are potential hot spots right now where, despite the fact that Israel is engaged in a temporary cease-fire with Hamas, a military conflict could erupt at any time. The tahadiya (period of calm) allows Hamas time to develop its political and military strategies.

Hamas may try to avoid violence and look to form a national unity government with the Palestinian Authority, giving clear directives that Hamas is ultimately in control.

Or, Hamas may try and wrest control from Fatah in the West Bank, usurping power from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas through violent clashes. This could cause Israel to enter into a new confrontation with terror groups.

Some Middle East analysts say that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accepted the tahadiya with Hamas to neutralize its influence in the region, while stopping the escalation of rocket attacks on Israel’s southern border communities to give the residents a respite. But, it is only a temporary solution until Israel finishes the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. That system will provide Israel with a way to stop incoming Kassam rockets launched from Gaza, and Katyusha rockets launched from Lebanon. Currently, the project has experienced some delays and isn’t expected to be completed until 2010.

Meanwhile, Matti Steinburg spoke of the reasoning behind the tactics of Hamas in Gaza and those of the President of Syria.

“I think, in a way, one of the reasons, maybe not the prime reason, that Hamas adapted the tahadiya is to distance itself from Iran, expecting a collision between Iran and Israel or Iran and the U.S. I think that is one of the causes of Syria’s Bashar Assad to have a process with Israel. He wants to distance himself, because the American behavior is unpredictable, as well as Israel’s behavior.”

CHANGES IN INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Israel and Lebanon in June. In Jerusalem, she spoke out firmly against Israeli housing construction in East Jerusalem. She also agreed with Lebanese claims that Israel must withdraw its troops from the Shaba Farms area, and try to resolve the dispute between Lebanon and Israel.

Rice’s efforts at achieving a more balanced approach in U.S. Middle East policy are telltale signs that America is forcing its hand in the region, but without the superpower influence it once had. Making noise, Rice was showing the Europeans that the U.S. is still in charge as the leading mediator between Israel and its neighbors in peace efforts. However, it is Europe that is coming to the forefront now with a much greater role in Middle East affairs.

SHELF AGREEMENTS AND DRAWER PLANS

In Israeli diplomatic efforts with the Palestinians there’s been a continued catch phrase used called, “a shelf agreement”. For example, while a certain framework of compromise over “land for peace” might have been concluded in the current interests of Israeli and Palestinian negotiators, it still may not be acceptable to public opinion at this time. So, the agreement is put on a shelf until a future government administration can take it off the shelf and rehash the agreement.

These kinds of shelf agreements can be detrimental to Israel because they can diplomatically lock a future Israeli government into a pattern of surrender to new peace partners. Olmert may have already committed Israel to far-reaching concessions as part of a completed shelf agreement, which then means the next Israeli coalition has to deal with these concessions at the bargaining table.

"Drawer plans" are what Israeli military officials use as defense strategies in conflicts that arise with their enemies. A plan is in a drawer that determines a certain course of action, with blueprints included on how to carry forth that action.

Drawer plans actually help military officials, especially when they have already gone through the Israeli government’s Security Cabinet approval. Without a drawer plan, IDF officers would have to present their proposals again, which would result in a slower response time to enemy aggression.

Instead, the plan that has already been approved sits in a drawer until needed, and at that time is taken out and enforced, especially when a quick strike against enemy targets is necessary.

STATISTICS ON CORRUPTION

According to the 2008 Democracy Index, 90% of Israelis believe the nation is tainted with corruption; and 51% think that to reach the top, politically, one must be corrupt. Only 49% of the public has confidence in the Israeli Supreme Court (down from 61%).

This indicates the level of frustration that is occurring within Israeli society regarding dishonest power brokers in Olmert’s coalition government; potential illegal dealings of Knesset members; and negative influences of Israeli interest groups resulting in biased judges.

Israelis believe that, today, politicians are more focused on keeping their own political power bases than they are in caring for the population, especially concerning the security needs and welfare of the state.

At least 25% of Israeli youth are currently trying to avoid the draft. They feel that the Olmert government abandoned three Israeli soldiers in the Lebanon War, not caring enough to do everything possible to return the POW’s to their families. This has hurt the level of trust between the government and its citizens. Only recently has the Israeli government finalized a prisoner swap with Hezbollah in Lebanon to bring two of the soldiers home in a deal to take place in mid-July. The other soldier is still being held by Hamas in Gaza.

The good news is that 89% of Israelis are still proud of their country and 83% want to keep living in the Jewish state.

PRAYER POINTS

CORRUPTION IN THE GOVERNMENT: Declare Psalm 1:1-2 over Israeli leaders.

Pray that the government will not enter into the way of the wicked nor walk in the path of the evil one.

Pray that political parties will remove their feet from paths of malicious intent. (Proverbs 4:14-15; 26-27).

SNARES AND TRAPS: Through American diplomatic pressure, Israel has entangled itself in an agreement that willingly has allowed the Palestinian Authority to deploy more of its troops in the West Bank. American and Israeli negotiators wanted to strengthen the leadership of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, hoping this would encourage the Palestinian population. But, the plan backfired. The troops have been infiltrated by Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, and the weapons are ending up in the hands of these terror groups.

Pray Psalm 91 over Israel -- that God will not allow her foot to stumble, despite international pressure.

Hamas would like to establish a puppet regime in Gaza and the West Bank, making it look like the Palestinian Authority is governing the land when, in fact, Hamas would have most of the political and military control behind the scenes. This would provide a mechanism allowing the international community to “do business” with Hamas and other terrorist entities.

This is a model of deception, already being used by Hezbollah in Lebanon to draw diplomats to its power base. The purpose is to coerce Western nations into indirectly negotiating with radical Islamic groups.

Pray that all snares and traps like this, set up by the enemy, will be revealed and obliterated by the Lord.

Pray for a miraculous speeding up of Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense system; that the project would be completed much earlier than expected.

Pray that while Israel’s skies currently are vulnerable to rocket attacks that citizens will “not be afraid of the terror by night nor of the arrow (missile) that flies by day.”

Pray that if rockets do fall they will not harm residents, but will land in open fields.

Pray that Israelis will be delivered from harm and live to see God’s dealings with wicked men. (Psalm 34:4; Jeremiah 15:21).

DISCERNMENT NEEDED: Pray that the Israeli government will not to be fooled by false hopes and will not be led into deception by Syria. If Olmert is playing with the process of peace, but without any intention of going through with peace plans, then pray Israel’s best interests are protected throughout the negotiations. (Psalm 33:10).

GEOGRAPHICAL WATCH: It’s important to keep a global prayer watch on the Straits of Hormuz, a place where Iran can make things difficult for international shipping and cause instability in that part of the Gulf region. Pray for a beefing-up of Western coalition forces in the Gulf in order to counter Iran’s aggressive actions.

TIMETABLES AND ALIYAH: The Bible mentions a time in Ezekiel Chapter 38:8-9 when, in the latter years, Persia (Iran), Ethiopia, Libya, and their allies (Russia?) will be called into action:

“In the distant future, you will swoop down on the land of Israel, which will be lying in peace after her recovery from war, and after the return of her people from many lands. You and all your allies – a vast and awesome horde – will roll down on them like a storm and cover the land like a cloud.” (New Living Translation).

This Ezekiel war, described throughout Chapters 38 and 39, seems to develop after another war occurs on Israeli soil. And, the Ezekiel war takes place after the return of Jews from many lands.

While there has been Jewish immigration from the nations, there are still millions yet to come. Anti-Semitism is causing Jews throughout the world to consider a move to Israel, and many are buying property in the Holy Land as a place of possible refuge in the future.

But, the facts remain that in 2007 Israel had its lowest year of immigration from the nations in the past 20 years. According to the Bible, Jews from the four corners of the earth will return to the land of their inheritance and dwell safely in Israel. We can expect many more to return before the Ezekiel war breaks out.

Certainly, few Jewish people have returned to the land of their forefathers from Western nations despite Biblical promises. Please pray and declare that Aliyah (Jewish immigration to the land of Israel) will dramatically increase this year, according to Isaiah 43:5-6 and Isaiah 49:12.

UNHOLY ALLIANCES: There are signs of unholy alliances growing stronger, with Russia and Libya buffeting Israel in the UN Security Council, and Russia arming Iran with weapons and military technology.

Reports also indicate that Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, may have activated sleeper cells in the West, with terror operatives trying to infiltrate Canada, America, and Africa. The concern is that they will attempt to attack Jewish targets throughout the world, avenging the death of arch terrorist Imad Mughniyeh who was assassinated in February 2008 in Damascus. Hezbollah holds Israel accountable for the death.

Pray Psalm 35 over Israel and Jewish people throughout the world, asking God to contend with those who contend with His people.

Pray that the Lord will rescue the Jewish nation from lions; from those who truly do not speak peace but devise deceitful schemes.

Ask the Lord to take hold of shield and buckler and show His mighty strength and protection over Israel, pushing back demonic forces that want to unleash their aggressions against the state.

Declare confusion in the enemy camp, and release the Angel of the Lord to pursue Israel’s foes.

Rejoice with the Jewish people in their salvation and victory over those who would try to hurt them.

Shout for joy and be glad in favoring Israel’s righteous cause -- a covenant people in a covenant land under the rule of the God of Israel and His Messiah.

Proclaim that the Lord be magnified in prospering and defending the nation.

Pray that Israel will go up and possess the land that God has set before the nation, without fear and without discouragement. (Deuteronomy 1:21).

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- I

Jerusalem, Israel

Israelis are at a breaking point, with several issues surfacing, and with the understanding that the political, diplomatic, and military balance in the country is in the process of rapid change.

What follows is a strategic assessment of news developments that are part of this process of change.

HEADLINES:

• Political Assessment
• Military Assessment
• Greater Cooperation Between Nations

POLITICAL ASSESSMENT

The on-going corruption case against Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is in its beginning stages. But, already it has increased public mistrust in Olmert, and in the way Israel's political system functions. Several members of Olmert's government; members of the Knesset, both past and present; and, former prime ministers have been under police investigations, during one time or another, concerning the alleged misuse of funds. Therefore, change in political laws is imperative to stop the temptation towards fraud and bribery.

Meanwhile, at best, Israelis can expect a call for early elections, which would likely take place in the late fall of this year.

It is possible that Olmert’s Kadima party will strike a deal with him for a gracious exit. That would mean that Kadima would hold primaries, elect a successor to Olmert, and keep the current government in place until new elections. At that point, Olmert’s successor, heading the Kadima party, would run for the position of prime minister, along with other’s (probably, Labor party head Ehud Barak, and Likud party head, Benjamin Netanyahu).

A majority of Israelis want early elections, which means a time of transition in the country. This could lead to: (a) political instability in the nation for five months during election campaigning; (b) the shelving of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and between Israel and the Syrians; (c) a chance for Palestinians in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza to unify against Israel; (d) a general surge in terror against Israel.

Declare Psalm 121. If there is a call for early elections, pray that the Lord God of Israel will watch over His land, and prevent chaos from developing, during a period of political and diplomatic uncertainty.

Prayer is needed for Ehud Olmert. If he is guilty, pray that God would reveal this; expose any evil trail of his misdeeds; and that, if indicted, he would be prosecuted fairly under the law.

If he is not guilty, pray that he will learn from his unethical decisions. These include extracting large sums of cash from friends and donors over many years, without paying back loans; leading an extravagant lifestyle as a political leader who is out of touch with his constituency; and, engaging in alleged backdoor political and business dealings that point to a conflict of interest during his political career.

Prayer should be directed, as well, towards political reform of election laws in Israel. It is too easy to find loopholes in the current electoral system, especially when it comes to campaign financing.

Pray that Israeli government leaders put what’s good for the country before what is good for them, politically. Ask God to raise up men like David; men after God’s own heart.
(1 Samuel 13:13-14; 1 Samuel 15:22-23, 28-29).


MILITARY ASSESSMENT

Gaza: In the coming days, we will know if there is going to be a cease-fire or war between Israel and the terrorist Palestinian government of Hamas. Either way, there are indications that rioters from Gaza could try and breach border crossings between Israel and Gaza and between Egypt and Gaza. This, alone, could cause the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians to escalate.

Conditions in Gaza are at a critical stage right now, with the situation on the ground ready to boil over any day. The political instability in the Israeli government contributes to a perception, by Hamas and other terrorist groups, that the government of Israel is weak. Therefore, acts of aggression may follow soon. (2 Chronicles 16:9).

Pray for God to impart wisdom and understanding to those leaders in Israel’s government that will listen to His counsel. Pray that they will know whether it is to Israel’s advantage to accept a temporary cease-fire with Hamas, or whether it is time for a full-scale military incursion into Gaza. Either way, Israeli government officials feel the cleansing of Gaza’s terrorist infrastructure is long overdue. The continued rocket fire against Israeli towns has not stopped, and it will expand to include an even greater threat to Israel’s population, if the IDF (Israel’s Defense Forces) doesn’t act soon.

Lebanon: A recent victory in political negotiations to end a stalemate in Lebanon, has led to an increase in political power by Hezbollah, a terrorist group that has turned Lebanon into a terrorist state within a state. Israeli officials claim that Hezbollah is a battalion of the Iranian army that is guided, trained and equipped by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Israel’s military assessment is that Hezbollah is now considered stronger that Lebanon’s general army.

Though Hezbollah is a minority party in the Lebanese government its political leaders now have veto power over every decision made by the newly formed cabinet. Israeli officials have asserted that Lebanon is becoming a proxy state of Iran through the increased power of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has announced an upcoming prisoner exchange with Israel. If this information is correct, a prisoner exchange would help Israel know whether its P.O.W.’s in Lebanon (Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser) are still alive. Israel is also trying to negotiate a prisoner exchange with Hamas in Gaza for the return of P.O.W. Corporal Gilad Shalit.

Pray that Israel will remain strong and firm in any imminent prisoner exchange, and not release Lebanese or Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails that have “blood on their hands.”

Pray that no manipulation from foreign governments, or terrorist armies, will be able to weaken Israel’s resolve.

Pray that Israel’s enemies will release all Israeli P.O.W.’s immediately, and without compromise to Israel’s interests. (Joel 3:4).

Pray for newly elected Lebanese president, Michel Suleimen, who will have limited political power, and who faces a huge task of uniting various religious clans in a nation that has already endured numerous years of bloody civil war.

Syria: A stable Israeli government must be in place before the end of 2008, in order to deal with increased tensions between Israel and Syria. While it is known that there are peace negotiations going on between Israel and Syria for a Golan Heights deal, what is little known is that Syria continues to remain a close military ally of both Iran and Russia, with no intention of disrupting these on-going partnerships.

Recently, the U.S. reported that there are hidden nuclear sites in Syria, contributing to an alleged secret nuclear program. It’s now a known fact that North Korea has been supplying nuclear components to Syria. Russia continues to supply Syria with advanced arms. Iran continues to send arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria.

Pray that there will be no deception in Israel as to the true intentions of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Pray that all evil intentions will be exposed. (1 Kings 20:22).

Pray that Israel will see the true nature of Russia, a country that is not only selling arms to Syria, but to Iran. Russia is attempting to gain leverage in the region by also making deals with Saudi Arabia, and forming a nuclear cooperation agreement with Egypt.

The problem is that Israel is dependent on Russia for most of its crude oil, and for at least $1 billion a year in trade. In addition, Israel has developed strong business ties with Russia in several sectors of society, including energy, industry, aviation and medicine.

Pray that the Lord will wean Israel from its dependence on Russia, and open the eyes of Israeli government officials to see Russia’s negative influence on the region, today, and in the future. (Read Ezekiel Chapters 38 and 39).

Iran: Despite continued UN sanctions, Iran is defying orders to stop its on-going nuclear program. Israel is convinced that Iran’s nuclear program is moving at a much faster rate than originally anticipated.

Kadima party member and Israeli General Shaul Mofaz, met in early spring with his U.S. counterparts in strategic cooperation meetings in Washington. He assessed that Iran could have a nuclear bomb by 2009.
There are some indications that Israel may be considering military action against Iran by the beginning of 2009, or before.

Some of the signs towards that projection follow:

(1) Israel conducted unprecedented country-wide emergency drills during homeland security operations in early spring 2008.

(2) Homeland security heads from the U.S., Europe, and Israel met, recently, to share intelligence information; to hear briefings on terrorism from Israeli defense officials; and to discuss forming closer partnerships.

(3) The Israeli government has indicated that they will be distributing gas masks to the public by January 2009.

(4) Israeli defense industry leaders have gotten permission from Israel’s leading rabbis to work on the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system on Shabbat. The system was expected to be completed in 2010, but Israel is requesting that it be completed much sooner.

(5) Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman, Tzahi Hanebi, has called for a general election to take place as soon as possible, folllowed by the formation of a national unity government to deal with the strategic threats from Iran.

Recently, at a Jerusalem press conference during the homeland security meeting of western nations, I asked Israel’s Public Security Minister, Avi Dichter a question about the current terrorist threat against Israel. He spoke of Iran’s threat to Israel, not just through their nuclear program, but also through their terrorist network.

“Iran is behind terror activities against Israel and against other countries. Here in Israel, we are facing a history of terrorist attacks by Iran by proxy for many years. Islamic Jihad is under Iranian supervision, indirectly, by Hezbollah since 1994. Hamas is under Iran’s instructions since 2001. Al-Aqsa (Martyrs) Brigades are being paid -- it’s a pure business -- since the beginning of the Intifada. Strategically, Israel is not going to let into the Gaza Strip another entity of terror with military equipment to be built in the Gaza Strip. So, blocking the current flow of the rockets is the most urgent mission. Blocking the enhancement of smuggling from Sinai into Gaza is a very urgent mission, as well. Cracking down on the military capabilities of terrorists in the Gaza Strip is a long-range mission and it will probably take years.”

GREATER COOPERATION BETWEEN NATIONS

Israel and U.S. leaders are troubled by signs that the balance of power in the Middle East is tipping towards Islamic domination. If this trend continues, strong leadership in new elections in both countries is essential; leadership that does not look to appease rogue nations with nuclear capability; leadership that is willing to take firm action against such states, before the Middle East becomes a region of nuclear proliferation.

Israel, North America, and some European nations are already engaging in deeper strategic cooperation dialogue, sharing greater intelligence information. NATO is upgrading military ties between Israel and European nations. There has been talk about the forming of a league of democratic nations that would take stronger diplomatic and, possibly, military action against common enemies.

At the “Facing Tomorrow” President’s Conference that took place earlier this month in Jerusalem, Israel’s current ambassador to the United Nations, Dan Gillerman, expressed his disappointment with the UN Security Council. He indicated that it was impossible to get many important resolutions passed through the Council because of continued vetoes by the country of Libya. Gillerman and Republican presidential candidate John McCain have both talked, independently, about forming a league of nations to by-pass the UN.

A time is coming when free democratic nations may have to go to war against rogue states that have nuclear capability. If there is a movement in this direction, the populations of western democracies will have to come into alignment with the decisions of their government leaders. It will mean an end to foreign policies that call for appeasement with enemy states. It will also mean that Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations will be put on hold.

Pray for leaders of nations to come into alignment with God’s Kingdom plans and purposes (Psalm 2).

Pray for Israel not to retreat but to advance, through repentance, courage, and confidence in the Lord, so that the land can receive the blessings of God. (Isaiah 26:15).