SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 67

Jerusalem, Israel

JERUSALEM -- A STUMBLING BLOCK FOR ALL NATIONS

With America’s encouragement, Israel and the Palestinians are considering a revised peace plan based on the Arab League Initiative. The plan calls for an Israeli withdrawal to pre-1967 borders with some minor land swaps.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that any agreement must include Israeli security arrangements along the Jordan River; Palestinian recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish People; a solution for absorbing returning Palestinians into the state of “Palestine” (not into Israel); and an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

But, the elephant standing in the room of peace enthusiasts is the issue of Jerusalem. During Netanyahu’s second term in office (2009-2013), Israeli interlocutors agreed to leave Jerusalem to Final Status talks. However, in the revised 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which Israel is being pressured to adopt, East Jerusalem becomes the capital of a Palestinian state. 

This is not acceptable to a majority of Israelis, Diaspora Jews, and pro-Israel Christian supporters. Many have voiced opposition to a divided Jerusalem, and do not want Israel to share or relinquish control of its capital city.

Today, because Israel has legal jurisdiction over the holly sites, the Israeli police take action on the Temple Mount during violent disturbances. But, daily, the area is controlled by the WAQF (Moslem religious authorities). They refuse to allow Jews and Christians to pray on the Mount, yet Moslems can pray there freely. Their claim is that any change to the status quo will ignite a Middle East war. Israeli right-wing activists have tried to ascend the Mount during special holy days but have been refused by Israeli authorities. Several attempts by the Temple Mount Faithful group to lay a cornerstone on the Mount in preparation for the building of the Third Temple have been unsuccessful.  During Passover this year, they tried to bypass Israeli police and perform a ritual sacrifice of a lamb. The police caught them and refused access to the area.

In late March 2013, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II signed an agreement to jointly defend Jerusalem, in an effort to further weaken Israeli control over the city. The deal states that Jordan has full right to exert all legal efforts at safeguarding and preserving the city’s holy sites. 

Jerusalem has been contested territory since the re-birth of the modern state of Israel 65 years ago, with few nations recognizing Israel’s rule over the city. America has contributed to the controversy. The State Department consistently refuses to acknowledge citizens born in Jerusalem, Israel on U.S. passports. Many American leaders, including past U.S. presidents will not acknowledge Israel's historical and biblical rights over the city. These leaders will not move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. All the nations that Israel has diplomatic relations with now have their embassies in Tel Aviv.

Since the Oslo Accords in 1993, the Palestinians have laid claim to Jerusalem as the capital of their homeland. During U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Ramallah in March 2013, he stated that the Palestinians should have a contiguous Palestinian State. He was implying that Israeli settlement building in the controversial E1 land corridor, which is on the outskirts of Jerusalem, would somehow separate East Jerusalem from the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), damaging Palestinian prospects. The Israelis deny this. They note that the Palestinians have two separate entities that make it impossible for their proposed state to be contiguous anyway. The Palestinian territories in the West Bank are under the rule of the Fatah government. The Palestinian entity of the Gaza Strip is under the rule of the Hamas government. But, once the Palestinians achieve reconciliation under one Palestinian government, their focus will turn towards Jerusalem. They will fly their flag over the city and demand their right to rule there.

Abbas is already accusing Israel of Judaizing East Jerusalem, urging Islamic states to prevent Israel from occupying Jerusalem and seeking to change the character of the city. Often, Jerusalem Arabs are incited by any slight changes to the area. Even talk of repairing a tourist ramp near the Temple Mount caused quite a stir this past winter.

Israeli former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been accused of negotiating the division of Jerusalem. Reportedly, Olmert agreed to West Jerusalem being a part of Israel, while releasing East Jerusalem to Palestinian or international control -- except for the Western Wall (which would remain in Israeli hands). Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak also negotiated with the Palestinians in regard to the division of Jerusalem. His comments became public knowledge and caused 600,000 Israelis to protest, forming a human chain around the city in 2001. 

Diplomatically, the world wants to internationalize Jerusalem. Spiritually, Jerusalem is the Divine seat of God’s governmental authority. According to the biblical scriptures, the fight over Jerusalem will only intensify in the days to come. The nations, one day, will surround Jerusalem with their armies. The city is a political and religious hot button that if pushed, ignites the masses and stirs passions on the streets of the Middle East.

Zechariah 12:2-3:  "Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of drunkenness to all the surrounding peoples, when they lay siege against Judah and Jerusalem. And, it shall happen in that day that I will make Jerusalem a very heavy stone for all peoples; all who would heave it away will surely be cut in pieces, though all nations of the earth are gathered against it."

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SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 66

Jerusalem, Israel

JUNE 2013 PRAYER UPDATE

Israel and the Middle East

(Psalm 18:29-50; Psalm 46; Psalm 60:12; Psalm 91, Matthew 24:6; Ephesians 6:10-19, Isaiah 51:5):

a)     Reportedly, the recent Israeli civil defense exercise simulated massive missile barrages launched against populated urban centers. This was a practice to see how the public would respond to the possibility of missiles hitting anywhere in Israel, day or night, coming from Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Gaza.  A majority of the public did not take the drill that seriously.

b)     There’s a “leverage” game going on among the nations, which is part of the “brinkmanship” that is causing a high military alert in Israel.

c)     The U.S. and Russia are supposed to be conducting a peace conference in Geneva on the Syrian crisis sometime during the month of June. They want to bring together Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime with the Syrian National Council to see if they can negotiate a deal to end the two-year bloody war in Syria, which is now estimated to have killed almost 100,000 people and displaced more than 1.5 million throughout the Middle East.

d)     Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces are murdering Sunni rebels and masses of people near the Homs city of Qusayr. This is a city in western Syria located in the mountains near Lebanon. Obtaining control of this Alawite stronghold will give Assad the ability to continue his rule in part of Syria, while also allowing Iran to continue to supply him with weapons. These weapons could then flow to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran needs this corridor to be open in order to hold on to a Shiite arc of control in the Middle East. 

e)     Meanwhile, the Europeans cancelled an arms embargo, allowing countries such as Britain and France to begin supplying arms to the Sunni rebels. This has angered Russia who strongly supports the Syrian regime and opposes any western intervention in the Syrian crisis.

f)      Because of the possibility that the west could prop up Syrian rebels in the future, Russia is threatening to deliver advanced weapons systems to Assad so that he will have a much greater edge, militarily, over opposition forces. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, hoping to discourage him from delivering the S-300 advanced weapon system to Assad. Netanyahu has claimed it would tip the balance of power in the Middle East. Reportedly, these weapons would create a no-fly zone in Syria and Lebanon, not allowing Israel to conduct sorties over these nations in order to defend the homeland. The system has a 200 km range and could hit Israeli fighter planes in the north. Israeli officials have declared that if these weapons are delivered by Russia to Syria, Israel’s air force will knock them out in a pre-emptive strike. Israel would make sure that the weapons could not be used by Assad or transferred to Hezbollah. 

g)     The United States has been weak in its foreign policy concerning Syria. (See the previous blog post re: this subject). It appears that if the peace conference fails, the U.S. might begin to supply the Sunni rebels with weapons, following the lead of France and Britain. Assad has threatened to go to war with Israel because of this.

You can see how complicated this matter is, and how there appears to be no solution. From the Israeli point of view, if the Shiites are allowed to maintain control of this part of the Middle East, through the on-going instability in Syria, this would be the greater threat to Israel than the Sunni rebels taking over parts of Syria. It seems that the peace conference, if it happens, will be a determining factor in how things will look in Syria in the future. Please direct your prayers to the scriptures (above) and stand with us for God’s protection over the people of Israel at this time.

SITUATION ANALYSIS -- 65

Jerusalem, Israel

LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS TO END THE CURRENT MIDDLE EAST WAR

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

U.S. senior officials are calling for a no-fly zone in Syria. The Europeans say they may begin funding and arming the Sunni rebels to help in the fight against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces. Russia is ignoring protests by America and Israel in its quest to deliver S-300 advanced weapons systems to the Syrian regime. And, the war in Syria is spilling over into Lebanon as Sunni rebels attack Hezbollah strongholds. 

These are some of the recent headlines in the media. But, in reality, the White House continues to sit passively while the bloody war in Syria rages on. Britain and France talk about the possibility of providing a small amount of arms to the Sunni rebels in Syria, which at this moment won’t do much to help them win the war. Though Russia insists on delivering the advanced weapons to Syria they actually haven’t done so yet. And, the Sunnis are calling on jihadists (especially in Egypt) to wage war against Shiite Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, the bloody battle over Syria continues to escalate with more than 80,000 people dead and at least 1.5 million displaced throughout the Middle East.  

What began as demonstrations by the Syrian people against their own government has now turned into a raging fight over who will control the land of Syria – the Shiites or the Sunnis.  

 

Israel does not want to get involved in this war as leaders in Jerusalem admit that they see both the Shiites and the Sunnis as enemies of the Jewish State. But, Israel will also not allow the balance of power to tip in the region. Israeli defense officials have warned Russian leaders that if they deliver the S-300 weapons to Syria it will be a “game changer”.  Israeli officials believe that these weapons getting into the hands of Assad, the Sunni rebels, or Hezbollah, would hurt Israel’s ability to defend itself. Therefore, we can expect a pre-emptive strike by Israel on Syrian territory to destroy these weapons if they are delivered to the Assad regime in the future.

Jonathon Spyer is a Senior Research Fellow at the IDC (Inter-Disciplinary Center) in Herzliya. He recently spoke at the Christian Friends of Israel Jerusalem conference.  He explained how the current upheavals taking place in the Middle East will affect Israel. “Syria is going to be of historical importance for Israel in the period opening up,” according to Spyer.

One of the greatest concerns for Israeli leaders is whether Iran will be strengthened by the war in Syria if the Shiites gain ground over the Sunnis.  Iran has defined itself as the new sunrise power that operates in the name of Islam and the Moslem peoples of the region, but the Iranians have a problem in that they are not Arabs, they are Persians. They need an issue to stir the Arab streets to support Iran’s ambitions, and that issue is Israel. 

“How do we, as Israelis and as Jews, come into this picture?  After all, we have no geo-political, no geographic conflict with the Iranians,” says Spyer. “We are on one side of the region. They are on the other side of the region. We also have no historical account with the Iranians.”

Though Israel has no grievances with the Persian State, Iran’s leaders want to see Israel destroyed.  “The Shiite bloc led by Iran remains by far the most able and active enemy facing Israel,” claims Spyer.

There is great Moslem opposition – both Shiite and Sunni -- to the existence of Jewish sovereignty in Israel. The land, at one time, was controlled by the Moslems and they see it as being “occupied” now by the Jews, which for them is an intolerable situation. 

But, the Iranians are not only interested in re-taking the Holy Land; they also want to take over the oil rich area of the Persian Gulf. For that reason, Arab Gulf countries are afraid of Iran’s expansionist dreams. Sunni Arab monarchies are dealing with Shiite unrest in their cities with threatens to overthrow their regimes.  While the Iranians continue to try and destabilize these Gulf States, Israel is finding new friends among its neighbors. Though Israel has no official public contact with some of the Gulf nations, there are unofficial meetings taking place, and Israel has hinted that a new diplomatic office has been established in one of these Arab countries.

At the same time, Iran is fervently trying to become a nuclear state in the region, escalating the conflict in Syria, in order to deflect its quest for nuclear capability. If Iran is able to build a nuclear bomb or create nuclear weapons it will become a superpower in the Middle East.

Spyer sees this as problematic. He claims that a nuclear empowered Iran would target Arab states and the Sunnis would be forced to submit to Iranian control over their nations. This is why Iran is not just the greatest threat, today, to Israel alone.

In the conflict between the Sunnis and Shiites in Syria, Spyer believes the U.S. and the west should be strongly backing the Sunni rebels.

Currently, the Assad regime is supported by Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraq with weapons, money, and soldiers who are fighting for Assad to maintain control over Syria. 

The Sunnis are less organized. The rebels are increasingly financed by Sunni Moslem powers in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. Money and support coming from these nations is allowing the Sunni rebels to remain on the battlefield.  But, they are not winning the war.

U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration have been reluctant to take sides in the battle over Syria. The fact that the United States has chosen to stay out of the war is a choice not well-received around the globe. 

 

Spyer alluded to this in his speech. “This U.S. Administration, in my estimation, has not well-understood how things work in the Middle East, and how politics and power are wielded here.”  Spyer talked about U.S. failure to back long-standing and faithful allies in the region, such as former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The argument that these were dictators who suppressed their people is valid, but how Obama dealt with them has been unnerving. When they got into trouble, Spyer explained, America, “their patron of long-standing, was seen to quickly discard them; to quickly throw them to the wolves.”  He added, “From a moral or ethical level this may well not be advisory behavior; from a political level this is stupid behavior.” 

Spyer believes that Middle East countries will be less likely to trust America’s intentions in the future when U.S. leaders try to engage in new friendships and alliances in the region.  

If America had gotten involved with the Syrian opposition in the beginning of the revolt in Syria, it would have prevented the current situation, according to Spyer’s point of view. “As a result of the western failure to back the rebellion in Syria over the last two years, this is now dominated by Sunni Islamist forces. They have filled the vacuum left by the lack of western support.” (Spyer is talking about radicals such as the Moslem Brotherhood, the Salafists, Al Qaeda and jihadist groups that have joined in the Syrian rebellion against Assad’s regime).

 “I think that it is not quite too late, and it is of crucial importance to the west and Israel and to all of us, that the Iranian side not be allowed a victory in the Syrian civil war. It is for this reason, even though I am not naïve at all about some of those people in the Syrian rebellion, that I am in support of greater western support for the rebels.”

The Obama Administration and western governments have to change their complacent foreign policies immediately in order to stop Iran’s ambition to become the dominant power in the region. To guarantee that Iran and its allies do not win an historic and strategic victory in Syria; and to assure that Iran does not become a nuclear superpower; and to make sure that Arab Gulf monarchies are protected and not forced into submission by a triumphant Iran; there must be more active involvement in the region led by a coalition of western forces.  

The U.S. and Europe, along with Gulf Arab states, must come through on their promises.  Israel will do everything it can, behind the scenes, and if necessary, pre-emptively, to keep this raging Middle East conflict from reaching the home front of the Jewish State. But, other world leaders need to keep it from igniting the whole Middle East.

The eternal God is your refuge;
And underneath are the everlasting arms;
He will thrust out the enemy from before you;
And will say, ‘Destroy!’

Deuteronomy 33:27