Jerusalem, Israel
MID-FEBRUARY 2017
Israel and the
Nations
THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU MEETING -- MAJOR FOCUS ON IRAN EXPECTED
U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on February 15, 2017 for what should
be an historic meeting and a new start for both countries. Iran is a topic that
Middle East analysts expect will be the main focus of the White House
discussions.
Major General (res.) Yaacov Amidror, former National
Security Advisor to Netanyahu, thinks that the U.S. and Israel will focus on
how to succeed in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state at the end of
the 15 year Iran nuclear deal. This agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed by the P5+1 nations (the U.S., U.K., France,
Germany, Russia and China), plus the EU, in 2015.
According to Amidror, “The bad agreement which was signed by
the previous (Obama) Administration might lead to a situation in which, at the
end of that period, the Iranians will be in a better position to acquire military
nuclear capability and Israel will face a stronger Iran than before.”
That kind of legitimacy given to Iran by the previous
American government has contributed to an overall sense that the agreement was
not good for Israel or for the United States. Amidror thinks this will lead to
better cooperation between both allies in the future.
The other concern that Trump and Netanyahu are expected to
discuss has to do with Iran’s long military reach – not just its strategic arms
expansion in the Middle East – but how that is affecting global stability.
Amidror explains that the two allies will also have to
figure out, along with other countries, how to contain Iran, to destroy ISIS,
and to stop radical Islam, which has strengthened its grip on the Middle East.
“Israel and the Americans, here in this case, have a historic moment in which
they can build something totally new, based on the same interest – that which
we are sharing with so many Arab countries in the Middle East.
Reportedly, Netanyahu spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah, and
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi before embarking on his trip to
America. Partnerships between Israel and the Gulf Countries are becoming more
known, publicly, and it is no secret that these nations, along with Saudi Arabia,
see Israel as providing a military umbrella if Iran’s hegemonic ambitions are
not contained.
Trump, as well, has been talking with Arab leaders, and some
analysts speculate that Egypt may be working behind the scenes in trying to
establish an Arab peace deal with Israel.
Ambassador Dennis Ross, a Distinguished Fellow with the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, thinks that Netanyahu will want to
talk to Trump about the importance of teaming up with Sunni Arab countries.
“The level of cooperation between Israel and the leading Sunni states,
vis-à-vis Iran, and vis-à-vis ISIS, is an asset for the U.S. And, we should be
thinking of how to take advantage of it, and what more can be done to take
advantage of it, both to counter the Iranians and to counter ISIS.”
Israel could become part of a U.S-led Middle East coalition;
a moderate bloc with Sunni Arabs states, to crush ISIS. But, Israel is also
worried about Iran’s influence on its norther border with Syria, where
Hezbollah, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and Shia militias have had an increased
presence. They have propped up the army of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Ross says the agenda between the U.S. and Israel should
include a strategic approach to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ross does not
believe that Netanyahu is against U.S.-Russian cooperation.
“He wants to be sure that, at a minimum, that whatever comes
out of Syria, it can’t be a new front that Israel faces on its border, with the
Revolutionary Guards and with Hezbollah.”
That is also a concern of Israeli Brigadier General (res.)
Yossi Kuperwasser. He states that if Iran has its way, Syria could become a
base from which the Iranians would exert their military power in the Middle
East and beyond.
“This possibility that they will have a contiguous axis,
starting in Iran and ending in the Mediterranean with Hezbollah, is something
that we all should be extremely worried about. This has to stop.”
The Russian military build-up in Syria is problematic for
Israel. Netanyahu has met with Putin several times in past months, not only
making sure that there is no accidental conflagration between Israel and Russia
over Syria. Netanyahu also wants the continuous flow of weapons from Iran
through Syria to Hezbollah to cease.
So far, Russia has been passive when Israel has gained
intelligence information and knocked out some of these arms shipments. But, how
long will that last? Also, Russia has,
reportedly, built a strong military base in Syria, including the possible
placement of anti-missile defense systems in the country, which would make it
more difficult for targeted Israeli airstrikes against Syrian aggression in the
future.
For now, if Trump is able to get Russia to distance itself
from Iranian influence in Syria, encouraging the Russians to move
diplomatically closer to Turkey, Ross thinks that would be a positive step.
Meanwhile, Amidror says much depends on what will happen in
the Middle East, and how Israel will be integrated into American efforts. “It
is known that when a new administration is coming in, it takes time to shape
the policy.”
Both men would agree that the meetings between the U.S. and
Israel will be publicly deemed successful, because Trump and Netanyahu want to
move forward from the negativity that existed between Israel and the former
Obama Administration.
According to Ross, “There is a strong presumption to send a
message of how close things are between the two leaders.”
There’s also an excitement building in Washington that the
U.S. and Israel will make the effort to be on the same page strategically and
practically. Furthermore, that the strategic alliance between both countries
will be brought to a higher level, because the Israeli and American people want
it that way.
“There are many plans in a man’s heart.
Nevertheless, the LORD’S counsel – that will stand.”
Proverbs 19:21